Preview & Tips

After a four-month hiatus and four weeks later than the PGA Tour, the European Tour returns to action with two weeks in Austria. They may be low key in profile, but anything but low key in significance as professional sport returns around Europe. Protocol violations and positive Covid-19 tests have dogged the PGA Tour over the past month; the European Tour has probably learned a great deal about the difficulties in arranging such an event.

Given the hiatus and lack of any significant Tour golf in Europe recently, there is an early season feel to this event. No-one has played more than a few rounds in unofficial events recently so previewing this event is difficult with so much competitive rustiness on show. At least there is plenty of course history given that this course hosted the Austrian Open (subsequently called the Lyoness Open and ShotClock Masters) between 2010 and 2018.

The course is flat and exposed and not short at 7,458 yards in length. This is a course that examines players’ skills from tee to green. Once the green is reached, the surfaces are generally considered to be very true. Given this description, it would be expected to host some of Europe’s best golfers each year, but the event has suffered from being scheduled the week before the U.S. Open.

With the obvious caveat about the lack of any Tour golf for four months, here are a few angles to identify players who should contend.

Angles to consider:

1. Cream rises to the top

The event was cancelled after the 2018 Shot Clock Masters. It was an innovative format, but the event still struggled with the scheduling issue. That said, it has almost always been one of the top-10 ranked players in the field who won that week at Diamond CC. In terms of World Rankings, Mikko Korhonen won in 2018 and was ranked 7^th best within the field, Dylan Frittelli won in 2017 and was ranked 4^th, Ashun Wu won in 2016 and ranked 19^th (one exception to the rule), Chris Wood won in 2015 and ranked 7^th, Mikael Lundberg won in 2014 ranked 102^nd, but 2^nd-placed Bernd Wiesberger was ranked 3^rd and 3^rd-placed Joost Luiten was ranked 2^nd, Luiten won in 2013 and ranked 7^th, while Wiesberger won in 2012 and ranked 2^nd.

2. The driver will be an important club

Hitting the ball long and straight off the tee has been a key characteristic of recent winners, particularly since the latest set of course changes, including extra length, in 2016. Korhonen ranked 16^th in driving distance and 3^rd in driving accuracy in 2018, Frittelli ranked 13^th and 9^th respectively in 2017, and while Wu was long (19^th in driving distance) but not especially accurate (29^th in driving accuracy in 2016, 2^nd-placed Adrian Otageui ranked 16^th and 2^nd respectively. Similar trends can be found in earlier years with strong accuracy combined with some power off the tee being the most common profile.

3. And so will the irons

As outlined above, this is a good course that will test all aspects of the tee-to-green game. In the nine events played at Diamond CC since 2010, the winner has ranked 8^th-4^th-11^th-1^st-20^th-6^th-6^th-13^th-4^th in greens in regulation that week. On the three occasions that the winner ranked outside the top-8 in greens in regulation, the 2^nd-placed player ranked either 1^st or 2^nd in greens in regulation to confirm the importance of tee-to-green play this week.

Selections

The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players have been selected.

Adri Arnaus

Arnaus has not played on this course previously, but he is the 2^nd-best player in this field in terms of World Rankings. He ranks 111^th with only Luiten (104^th) ranked ahead of him. He is a player with enormous potential, securing three runners-up finishes in his rookie season last year and he was 3^rd in the Dubai Desert Classic earlier this year. Given that this is a field in which there are more Challenge Tour players than European Tour players, the gap between someone such as Arnaus and the bulk of this field is huge. Rustiness, and a trans-Atlantic flight to get here, may be an issue, but the course should help his cause. He ranked 4^th in strokes gained: off the tee and 13^th in greens in regulation on the European Tour last year.

Nicolas Colsaerts

Colsaerts is another whose game profile matches that of the course. He ranked 22^nd in strokes gained: off the tee and 45^th in greens in regulation on the European Tour last year. While those numbers look weak compared to Arnaus, they are stellar in comparison to virtually everyone else in this field. He showed that this course suits his game when finishing 3^rd in 2018 and he also fits the first angle in that he is the 8^th-best player in this field in terms of the World Rankings. Winning the Italian Open in October certainly helped his rankings.

Sebastian Heisele

Heisele is slightly better than Colsaerts in terms of the World Rankings – he is the 7^th best player in this field – and he benefitted from very strong over the past year, particularly on the Challenge Tour where he closed last season with four top-3 finishes in his last seven starts, including one win. He has played reasonably well this season on the European Tour, ranking 13^th in strokes gained: off the tee and 62^nd in strokes gained: approach the green. Those are good stats in this company and his ability to dominate on the Challenge Tour is also strong evidence of his ability to win against this field.

Tips   0-3; -6.00pts

1pt e.w. Adri Arnaus 14/1 (available generally 1/4 1-2-3-4-5)  62nd

1pt e.w. Nicolas Colsaerts 22/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7)  mc

1pt e.w. Sebastian Heisele 35/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7)  mc