Preview & Tips

The second Rolex Series event in two weeks, this is almost an on-schedule event. With the compression of the Majors into a three-month period from last year, this event was moved from May to a new annual slot in mid-September. It is only three weeks late this year and the course should play almost as expected for this event. Apart from the very wet weather that has plagued British golf courses for the last few months.

After the unimpressive field last week, this week sees the addition of new players to the rota. A late invite for Patrick Reed ensured that there was at least one player in the World top-10, while this week also sees the addition of Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Branden Grace, Tyrrell Hatton, Kurt Kitayama, Shane Lowry, Justin Rose and Mathias Schwab who had all been playing on the PGA Tour until recently.

There is plenty of course history to draw upon, but for the exception of last year, this event has always been played in Spring and so the course plays rather differently at this time of year. There was, of course, the HSBC World Match Play Championship which was always played in Autumn but that event last appeared on the schedule in 2007 and there have been significant course changes since then, most notably in 2009/10. Those changes were not universally welcomed, while the more recent changes to greens and bunkers in 2016 were made to restore the course more in line with the original Harry Colt approach. The greens were replaced with pure bentgrass and are much better as a result.

At 7,284 yards, the course is not long by Tour Standards, but this is a tree-lined heathland course. Does that make accuracy more important than power? Francesco Molinari’s victory in 2017 may point in that direction, but that event was in May. Last year’s first Autumn date for this event showed no difference between accuracy and power. Danny Willett won and ranked 15^th for driving distance and 16^th for driving accuracy; Jon Rahm was 2^nd and ranked 6^th for driving distance and 4^th for driving accuracy; Christiaan Bezuidenhout was 3^rd and ranked 30^th for driving distance and 33^rd for driving accuracy; and so on. This is clearly not a course on which the driver is important, at least at this time of the year. Profitable angles need to be found elsewhere.

Here are a few angles that can be used this week.

Angles to consider:

1. The cream rises to the top at Wentworth

A common angle is that Wentworth tests all parts of the game and players that are good in all aspects of the game also have good World Rankings. This was also confirmed in the new Autumn slot by Willett who ranked 58^th in the World Rankings at the start of the week. In terms of previous winners in Spring, Francesco Molinari won in 2018 when ranked 32nd in the World Rankings; Alexander Noren won in 2017 when ranked 16th in the World Rankings; Chris Wood won in 2016 when ranked 54th in the World Rankings; Byeong-Hun is the exception to the rule with his 100/1 win in 2015, but he would still end the year inside the top-30 in the World Rankings; and the next set of winners were Rory McIlroy (10th in the World Rankings), Matteo Manassero (55th), Luke Donald (2nd) and Luke Donald again (2nd).

2. Recent form matters at Wentworth

Despite typically being played in Spring when the Tour’s best players had concentrated on the PGA Tour beforehand, winners at Wentworth have always displayed good form somewhere around the globe prior to the win here. Willett had finished 6^th in the Open Championship and 24^th in the Northern Trust in the PGA Tour Playoffs, Molinari had been in the top-20 at The Masters, Noren had been in the top-20 at the Players Championship, Wood had been in the top-20 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, An had been in the top-20 at the Open de Espana, McIlroy had finished in the top-10 in his last four PGA Tour events, Manassero had been in the top-20 in the Open de Espana and Donald had finished 6th in the Players Championship.

3. Course form also matters

Despite the large-scale changes to the course in the last decade, there is always a familiarity to the leaderboard at Wentworth. Willett won last year to follow up a 3^rd place finish three years beforehand; Molinari won in 2018 to follow up a 2^nd place finish the previous year; Noren won in 2017 to follow up an 8^th place finish two years beforehand; Wood won in 2016 to follow up a 4^th place finish the previous year; and so on. With the exception of An, who won on his debut in 2015, you need to go back to Scott Drummond in 2004 to find a winner here who hadn’t already secured a top-10 finish at Wentworth.

Selections

The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following player has been selected.

Justin Rose

Admittedly, he is not the player that he was in early 2019 when top of the World Rankings (and deciding to change clubs), but there is plenty of reason to suggest that he is close to returning to that level. His finishes of 3^rd in the Charles Schwab Challenge, 9^th in the PGA Championship and 25^th in the Northern Trust were borne of very strong tee-to-green stats after he split with Honma. He has played only once since that last event, but sounds very keen to return to this venue after he decided to skip last week’s event. He has two 2^nd place finishes here, one as a playoff loser (2007) and was a strong contender until back-to-back double bogeys on the back nine on Sunday last year.

Erik Van Rooyen

A 6^th place in his first European Tour start since February was a good return for Van Rooyen. It followed up his 23^rd place finish in the U.S. Open to show that his form is very good and befitting of a player ranked inside the World top-50. With finishes of 20^th and 14^th in his two starts here, the South African has clearly found that this course suits his game and it would be no surprise to see him contend again this week.

Thomas Pieters

It was surprising that Pieters did not contend last week, he had been in excellent form previously. Since the European Tour restart, he has been in contention in almost every week, even the U.S. Open, and while he hasn’t converted any of these chances this year, he is a player who has won four times on the European Tour. And he has also contended on this course, being the joint-leader after 36 holes in 2017 before finishing 14^th. On ability alone, he should win far more times than he has done, but so long as he keeps getting himself into these positions, he will win a fifth Tour title soon.

Tips  0-3; -6.00pts

1pt e.w. Justin Rose 18/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  37th

1pt e.w. Erik Van Rooyen 25/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5-6)  27th

1pt e.w. Thomas Pieters 28/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  62nd