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After a couple of weeks of dual-ranking events, the European Tour (re-)starts in earnest with six events in England and Wales. The earlier re-start of the PGA Tour and next week’s WGC event in Memphis ensure that the field isn’t as strong as normal for this event, but at least there is live TV again and this event is only one week away from its original slot on the Tour schedule. As last week, the event starts on Wednesday and there will be no crowds, though this will have a significant effect on the event. With no fans and no hospitality, the Colt course at Close House GC will be played in its normal routing from 1 to 18 and that means that the event will not finish with a par-3 as in the 2017 British Masters held here. According to the course consultant, Lee Westwood, this will make the final stretch more exciting with a birdieable par-5 17th hole and a very tough par-4 to finish which features water to the right and a wall round the front. Alongside the change of starting hole for this event, Westwood has made a number of other changes for the 2020 event. A new tee on the 7th hole has turned this hole into a par-5, new trees have been added to the course and the bunkering has also been changed. The course has only hosted the 2017 British Masters on the European Tour – and the wet conditions that week made scoring easy – so there is only limited course form to draw upon, even though Close House also hosted a Europro Tour event for three years between 2015 and 2017. There are a number of players who played in those events, such as Marcus Armitage, Laurie Canter and Ashley Chesters, but there are only scores available from those events so they don’t add very much to the profile built from the 2017 event here. Here are a few angles to identify players who should contend. Angles to consider: 1. This is a second-shot course Length off the tee was important in 2017 with the winner, Paul Dunne, and the runner-up, Rory McIlroy, ranking much higher in driving distance (14th and 5th) than driving accuracy (42nd and 51st) that week. But Westwood has added more trees to the course and the rough is more penal this time around so there will be a better balance off the tee. Given the elevation changes, ball control with the second shot will be very important. You don’t need to be at the foot of a mountain, as last week, to face elevation changes and hilly lies and that will also be the case this week. 2. Scrambling was a key stat in 2017 Dunne ranked 1st and McIlroy ranked 5th in scrambling in 2017 to confirm that this was the key stat that year. As Dunne confirmed after the event in 2017, “there was more emphasis on iron play and short game, which suits me”. With Westwood’s tinkering of the bunkering and changes to some of the greens, this should again put a focus on the short game as well as iron play. 3. The par-5s will be even more important this time around There were only two par-5s in 2017, but Dunne and McIlroy made their scoring on those eight par-5s: Dunne was eight-under-par and McIlroy was seven-under-par. Given that Westwood has lengthened the 7th hole to make another par-5 – and an attackable one at only 525 yards – this should add to the 2017 feature that, while par-4 scoring is always important because of the number of them, it is the ability to score well on the par-5s that keeps the score competitive. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players have been selected. Thomas Detry Detry has been threatening to win since his rookie season in 2017 when he finished 2nd in the BMW International Open. He shows that his early season form was no fluke when finishing 8th in the Austrian Open two weeks ago and now faces a course that should suit him well. He ranks 8th in strokes gained – approach the green and 15th in greens in regulation on the European Tour to show that his iron play is very strong. His short game may not be the strongest part of his game – he ranks 31st in strokes gained – around the green and 57th in scrambling – but this is not a strong field and those rankings are well above average. As someone who ranks in 5th in scoring average (including 5th in par-5 scoring), he warrants close attention in most leading European Tour events so warrants short odds in this field. Marcus Kinhult Kinhult has won previously on the European Tour and is the defending champion this week. That would normally be a reason to avoid a player, but the fact that his victory came at Hillside Golf Club and there is a lack of media circus this week means that the demands on the defending champion are much reduced. He didn’t play in either event in Austria, but restarted his season with a top-15 finish in the Katrineholm Open earlier this month. His rank for par-5 scoring is much better than for par-3 or par-4 scoring, while his short game is also generally very good. Not as consistent as Detry, but he almost won his second Tour title in the last twelve months when losing out in a playoff to Tommy Fleetwood for the Nedbank Golf Challenge in November. Andrew Johnston Admittedly, Johnston hasn’t played in a Tour event since the Dubai Desert Classic in January, but Tour rustiness is a feature for all these players. As last year, he didn’t follow the European Tour around the different continents in early Spring and when the Tour suspension came, he admitted that he left his clubs to go rusty while he concentrated on his family. He has been back practising again now though and is eager to restart the season. If he can repeat his form of late 2019 – four top-10 finishes in his last seven starts – he should be a very strong contender this week. He was 12th in strokes gained – tee-to-green, 12th in strokes gained – approach the green, 12th in scrambling and 12th in scoring average on the European Tour last year. Last year’s ‘Beef’ Johnson would be priced very much lower in this field. Tips 0-3; -6.00pts 1pt e.w. Thomas Detry 14/1 (Betfred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10) mc 1pt e.w. Marcus Kinhult 28/1 (Betfred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10) 38th 1pt e.w. Andrew Johnson 45/1 (Betfred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10) wd
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