Preview & Tips

The sense of a déja vu continues on the European Tour this week. Admittedly at a lower rate than in previous weeks, but three-quarters of this week’s field played in last week’s event and we are again returning to a venue that had been dropped from the European Tour. The Twenty Ten course at the Celtic Manor Resort last hosted the Wales Open in 2014. But this will be nothing to the déja vu next week when this venue hosts a second European Tour event.

The final two weeks of the U.K. Swing draw to a close a mini Order of Merit in which the top-10 will earn a place at the U.S. Open. There may have been no crowds at last week’s Major, but it was still a great event. The U.S. Open is normally even better and that will add to the pressure for those contending this week.

The Twenty Ten course hosted the Wales Open between 2008 and 2014, but it is most famous for hosting the 2010 Ryder Cup. That means that there is plenty of, albeit a little dated, course form and this will be a demanding track.

It is formed of the original Robert Trent Jones II-designed Wentworth Hills course and nine new holes designed by Ross McMurray. That gives the course a rather disjointed feel with a links feel at the start, lakes being a feature in the middle section and a challenging finish. A driveable par-4 15^th hole does appear to pander more to the matchplay format of the Ryder Cup, though.

The course appears to play markedly more difficult after the 2008 Wales Open, presumably as preparations for the 2010 Ryder Cup increased. Overall though, the fairways are generous, but the water provides penalties for the overly wayward. Much will depend on the tees that are used this week as there are many different possibilities for most holes.

Here are a few angles to identify players who should contend.

Angles to consider:

1. Driving is more important here than in previous weeks

At 7,354 yards, this is not a short course, particularly for a par-71. Over half of the par-4s are in excess of 450 yards, for example. Length off the tee has certainly been helpful around this course in the four Wales Opens since the Ryder Cup. Nicolas Colsaerts top-ranked for driving distance in 2014 and finished 4^th, Peter Uihlein top-ranked for driving distance in 2013 and finished 2^nd, while Alex Noren top-ranked for driving distance in 2011 and won the event. It will be important not to be too wayward given the water here, but length off the tee will help more than accuracy.

2. Greens in regulation will be a key stat

Beyond the driver, there are not really any particular clubs that will be particularly important, at least from the stats of the 2008-2014 Wales Opens. This was a venue for the Ryder Cup and so is a strong test of the whole game, while providing a strong risk-reward element that suits more attacking players. That normally translates into good GIR stats and the last five winners here have ranked 1^st-2^nd-7^th-26^th-4^th in greens in regulation that week.

3. Parallels with Le Golf National

This angle is courtesy of Steve Rawlings (https://betting.betfair.com/golf/the-punter/celtic-classic-2020-tips-and-preview-is-le-golf-national-the-key-to-a-welsh-win-100820-167.html). There is an obvious parallel in that Le Golf National hosted the Ryder Cup in 2018 and there are clear visual cross-overs, but there is also a parallel in terms of players who feature strongly on both courses. This week’s field is nowhere near as impressive at those typically competing in the Open de France (or the previous Wales Opens), but it looks like a useful angle this week.

Selections

The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players have been selected.

Joost Luiten

This week’s trio are players who have not been competing week after week on the European Tour. Last week’s angle of a top-15 in the previous two weeks helped to identify Andy Sullivan as last week’s winner, but this looks a likely time for a change after five weeks of the European Tour re-start and three consecutive weeks in England. Luiten made the cut in last week’s PGA Championship to continue the fine form that he showed in the two Austrian events. He ranks 19^th in driving distance and 24^th in greens in regulation on the European Tour to show that his game fits this course profile and that is certainly borne out by his record here: he finished 2^nd-4^th-1^st in the last three Wales Opens. His price has factored in his trans-Atlantic flight, so fatigue aside, he is a very likely contender this week.

Thomas Pieters

Pieters had been listed the PGA of America on 21^st July as one of those due to play last week, but chose not to play after the birth of his daughter on 24^th July. Despite his decision not to play in the PGA Championship and the face that he hasn’t played Tour golf since the Qatar Masters in March, he has been practising daily and is eager to return to competitive golf. He does so on a course that suits his attacking style and he has the perfect game for this course – he ranks 10^th in driving distance, 7^th in strokes gained: off the tee; 1^st in strokes gained: approach the green; 1^st in strokes gained: tee-to-green; and 2^nd in greens in regulation. The only factor working against him is Tour rustiness, but as with Luiten and the PGA Championship issue, this has already been factored into his price.

Kurt Kitayama

A final player who didn’t make the short journey from Hanbury Manor is the American Kitayama. Like Luiten, he played in last week’s PGA Championship and made the cut. He is another very attacking player, which should suit this week, and is particularly good off the tee. He has been playing solely on the PGA Tour since finishing 6^th in the Dubai Desert Classic in January, but last season he ranked 3^rd in driving distance and 17^th in strokes gained: off the tee on the European Tour. As a player who has won on the European Tour in each of the last two seasons and has finished 6^th or better in four of his last seven European Tour starts, he certainly warrants attention this week.

Tips

1pt e.w. Joost Luiten 14/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7)

1pt e.w. Thomas Pieters 20/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7)

1pt e.w. Kurt Kitayama 33/1 (Skybet, 888sport, Unibet 1/4 1-2-3-4-5-6)