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There is a sense of a déja vu on the European Tour this week. Over 85% of this week’s field played in last week’s Hero Open and there are plenty of similarities between the two courses as well. Both courses also have the same history with the European Tour – they were regular venues, but dropped and now feature each year on the European Senior Tour. Opened in 1991 to much acclaim, Hanbury Manor last hosted the English Open between 1997 and 1999 (bookmarked by Forest of Arden to continue the theme of continuity from last week) and has hosted the Willow Senior Classic/Sinclair Invitational on the European Senior Tour since 2016. Again, as with Forest of Arden last week, the course is largely aimed at the golf tourism market given its absence from the main Tour for so many years. The length of the course is not punitive, but as with last week, the par-4s and par-5s are mostly dog-legs, so again the purpose of the tee-shot is primarily positional only on this tree-lined course. Given the recent wet weather, the course should play much easier than usual if the fairways are found off the tee. With the caveat about a lack of European Tour golf here for 21 years, here are a couple of angles to identify players who should contend. Angles to consider: 1. This is a second-shot course This has been outlined above. Thick rough grown in the recent wet spell and tree-lined fairways means that the driver will be used only sparingly this week. The last three winners on this course – Per-Ulrik Johannsson (1997), Lee Westwood (1998) and Darren Clarke (1999) – were known as being very solid off the tee, but primarily their games were based on solid iron play. When Clarke won in 1999, only one of the top-12 on the leaderboard ranked in the top-10 in driving distance and only one ranked in the top-10 for driving accuracy. This confirms that this is a second-shot course. Of the top-6 on the leaderboard, all of them ranked inside the top-15 for greens in regulation that week. 2. Form has been important in this Tour re-start This is the second angle to be carried over from last week as it was confirmed at the British Masters. Winner Sam Horsfield had finished in the top-10 in his previous start and runner-up Thomas Detry had finished in the top-10 in the Austrian Open. To repeat last week’s preview, it is clear that form in this compressed season carries significant momentum. It may even be as simple as different players having different comfort levels with the playing arrangements – no crowds, social distancing, staying within the Tour bubble. It can also be pointed out that with the fields so similar each week, there is likely to be a consistency across the leaderboards unless there are huge differences in the course being played. There have now been three events since the Tour re-start at the Austrian Open and all three winners had secured a top-15 finish within the previous two weeks. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players have been selected. Sam Horsfield Given the similarity of courses and fields, and the bubble in which they are operating, I see a very similar look to this week’s leaderboard so why not a repeat winner. In his two recent starts, he has finished 10th and 1st, and he showed great maturity on Sunday after he had struggled so badly on the back nine on Saturday. He played very much within himself, particularly off the tee, and was a fully deserved winner. He never looked nervous on the short putts even though this was his maiden Tour win. His game fits this course well – he ranks 11th in strokes gained: tee to green on the European Tour and has shown in the last few weeks that he is putting well on these perfect, mid-season bentgrass greens. Thomas Detry The man who could have won last week, but for a nervy four-foot putt on the last hole when he had taken the lead. That may well stay with him this week as he still looks to win his first European Tour title despite securing six top-3 finishes. A good start on Thursday and it will be forgotten and he will be the most dangerous player in the field as he showed on Sunday. Westwood may be the one player in this field who has a higher World Ranking, but Detry looks far more likely to win this event. After also finishing 8th in the Austrian Open, his form is very good and his game is ideally suited – he ranks 6th in strokes gained: tee to green and 7th in strokes gained: approach the green. Renato Paratore Paratore followed up his win in the British Masters with a top-30 finish last week, but he often threatened the top of the leaderboard. He was 14-under-par for the first seven holes – a score bettered only by Horsfield – but struggled around the turn to fall back each day. That said, it is still strong evidence that his game is in very good shape and this is another course that should suit him well. He ranks 5th in strokes gained: tee to green and 8th in strokes gained: approach the green. Tips 0-3; -6.00pts 1pt e.w. Sam Horsfield 18/1 (available generally 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) mc 1pt e.w. Thomas Detry 12/1 (888sport, Unibet 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 56th 1pt e.w. Renato Paratore 33/1 (888sport, Unibet 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 34th
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