Preview & Tips

From weeks without any Tour golf to two European Tour events in one week. It has been an impressive effort by the European Tour to put together a schedule for the end of the season. The three events in South Africa have maintained its commitment to being a global Tour, while the event in Dubai serves as a warm-up for next week’s season-ending Tour Championship.

This week’s field is nowhere near as stellar, particularly after the withdrawals of Rafa Cabrera Bello and Lee Westwood, but with a prize fund of $1.2m versus next week’s $8m, this was always going to be a lesser event. There are 14 players in the top-100 of the World Rankings which isn’t too bad given that a further four top-100-ranked players are playing in the opposite-field event in South Africa.

This week’s field will compete on the Fire course at Jumeirah Golf Estates in Dubai. Designed alongside the Earth course (next week’s venue) by Greg Norman, there is a familiarity across the two courses in terms of the terrain and the climate conditions. However, this course is far easier. In terms of handicap rating, the Fire course is 110 whereas the Earth course is 140. That is a big difference. With winds forecast to be very light, rising slowly throughout the week, scoring should be a lot lower than next week.

Generally speaking, the fairways are easier to find on this course despite the elevation changes which are most pronounced from the tee. The grass is also longer and wispier around the greens which gives it a more links-style look, but this is certainly not a link course. Wind has normally been one of the key defences of courses in this region, but that will not be the case this week so low-scoring should be common.

With this no previous Tour events played at this venue, here are just two angles that can be used this week.

Angles to consider:

1. Experience in the Middle East will be important

This is a very common angle in European Tour events played in this region. Three players have won 7 of 14 Abu Dhabi Golf Championships (and this year’s winner, Lee Westwood, had previously finished 2^nd in the event). And even though the Dubai Desert Classic hasn’t quite as many multiple-winners, there is a familiarity to the leaderboard there each year. Even this year’s 200/1 winner, Lucas Herbert, had finished 7^th the previous year. Desert golf is a particular form of golf and familiarity with it is normally necessary before winning in this region.

2. Tee-to-green stats should be good predictors

The scoring is expected to be low, which could suggest that it is wise to side with players who make lots of birdies or are good putters. But low-scoring events are typically won by players who have career weeks on the greens rather than career weeks on the fairway. It will be very easy to look at the stats after the event and point to the winner as the person to made the most putts. Before the event, it is better to look at players who will present themselves with the most number of makeable putts. If they have a career week on the greens, they will get the birdies needed to win a low-scoring event.

Selections

The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected.

Martin Kaymer

If there is a specialist in desert golf on the European Tour, it is Kaymer. His three wins in the Abu Dhabi Championship may be some time ago, but he has consistently finished high on the leaderboard in events in this region even when his game was in the doldrums. Admittedly, he hasn’t won since the U.S. Open in 2014 and this is a very short price for someone winless for so long, but his last five starts on the European Tour read: 3^rd-2^nd-mc-10^th-5^th. He is so close to winning again, it wouldn’t be a surprise if it was in the UAE.  

Andy Sullivan

While Kaymer ranks 1^st in strokes gained – approach the green and 4^th in strokes gained – tee-to-green, Sullivan ranks 2^nd in both of those categories. If those stats are good predictors who will have the most makeable birdie chances, Kaymer and Sullivan should fare very well this week. He has similarly been in good form, winning the English Championship in August and finishing 3^rd in the BMW PGA Championship last month. He has already finished 2^nd twice in Dubai. His forms suggests that he may go one better this week.

Steven Brown

Brown is already a winner on the European Tour, having won the 2019 Portugal Masters, and has shown enough form since the restart to suggest that he could win again. He has recorded three top-10 finishes since August so warrants a more speculative selection.

Niklas Lemke

Lemke has shown more than enough form recently to warrant a speculative selection. He has finished 9^th and 11^th in his last two European Tour starts, as well as 6^th in the Portugal Masters in September. He also has good form in this region, having finished 3^rd in the Qatar Masters just before the Tour lockdown.

Marc Warren

Warren has a wealth of experience in this region, including a 2^nd place finish in the 2015 Qatar Masters. Given that he won the Austrian Open in July and finished 4^th in the Scottish Open last month there is enough to suggest that if he does have a good week, he has the experience to convert his chances. Ranking 1^st in putts per GIR, 1^st in putts per round and 3^rd in one putts on the European Tour, it is a fairly safe bet that he will have a good week on the greens; he needs to have a good week before reaching those greens and that should be easier on this type of course.

Grant Forrest

Forrest’s best finish since the restart has been 14^th in the Portugal Masters, but he has played well for 36 or 54 holes at a time. He was 6^th at the cut in the BMW PGA Championship, for example. He does have form in this region, having secured a top-10 finish in the Oman Open in March and completes the quartet of speculative selections.

Tips: 2-4; +7.15pts

1pt e.w. Martin Kaymer 14/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7)  37th

1pt e.w. Andy Sullivan 22/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  2nd

0.25pts e.w. Steven Brown  150/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7)  8th

0.25pts e.w. Niklas Lemke  150/1 (Spreadex 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6)  8th

0.25pts e.w. Marc Warren  150/1 (Unibet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6)  8th

0.25pts e.w. Grant Forrest  150/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7)  6th