Preview & Tips

This week marks a welcome return to the Arden course at the Forest of Arden. This had been the regular venue of either the English Open and British Masters for many years until 2005. The British Masters would stay on the calendar for another three years at the Belfry, but it was part of a trend that moved the European Tour further and further away from its original centre within the UK.

The field is largely the same as last week – as will be the case for the next few weeks – with Lee Westwood, Andrew Johnston and Marcus Kinhult being this week’s notable absentees and Joost Luiten, Benjamin Hebert and Thorbjorn Olesen being the notable additions.

The lack of a Tour event – with the exception of the European Seniors Tour – at the Forest of Arden for 15 years means that there is scant information on which develop evidenced-based pointers in terms of what will be required on this course. However, what is clear from the stats – and from my own experience of the course – is that this is a second-shot course. The rough has always been fairly penal on this tree-lined course and the fact that 11 of the 14 non-par-3 holes are not straight – some with quite sharp dog-legs – the purpose of the tee-shot is primarily positional only on this course.

This course was always a good test of player’s ball-striking abilities and hopefully this week’s tournament will increase its chances of holding a regular European Tour event again in the near future.

With the caveat about a lack of European Tour golf here for 15 years, here are a few angles to identify players who should contend.

Angles to consider:

1. This is a second-shot course

This has been outlined above. Penal rough, particularly around the greens, and tree-lined fairways means that the driver will be used only sparingly this week. The last three winners on this course – Greg Owen (2003), Barry Lane (2004) and Thomas Bjorn (2005) – were known as being very solid from tee-to-green, as was David Howell who lost out in a playoff to Bjorn in 2005. Greens in regulation was a key stat at the time and will be again 15 years later.

2. Par-saving will also be important      

Those winning scores in 2003-2005 were 14-under, 16-under and 6-under-par, and in those first two years, the winner was three shots ahead of 2^nd place. Scoring is tough around this course and that has remained so on the European Tour. Last year, Thomas Levet won with a score of 10-under-par. By comparison, Jose Coceres had won the previous week with a score of 19-under-par. Bogey avoidance and scrambling will be key stats this week.

3. Form has been important in this Tour re-start

This is now the fourth event of the Tour re-start and it is clear that form in this compressed season carries significant momentum. It may even be as simple as different players having different comfort levels with the playing arrangements – no crowds, social distancing, staying within the Tour bubble. When Renato Paratore won last week, it was on the back of a top-15 finish two weeks previously. When Joel Stalter won two weeks ago, it was on the back of a top-15 finish the previous week. It was expected that form in the first Austrian event would carry over into the second Austrian event and that should also be the case in this UK Swing. As explained, it is more than just form and momentum given the strange arena of Tour golf in 2020.

Selections

The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players have been selected.

Joost Luiten

The can be no queries about Luiten’s form. For the second time in two weeks at the Euram Bank Open, he reached the top of the leaderboard mid-tournament. He would take a ten on a par-5 in round three to prove his doubters correct, but he got back to within a shot of the lead by the 71^st hole. This is a course that should suit this game – he ranks inside the top-25 in greens in regulation – and, that quintuple-bogey aside, he is normally very good at maintaining a good score – he ranks 10^th best on the European Tour this year for bogeys per round.

Renato Paratore

The definitive ‘form’ selection as he was very impressive in winning last week and finished 15^th in the Austrian Open (2^nd at the cut) two weeks previously. Normally, that would be enough reason to avoid a player the following week, but these are not normal times. It can also be remembered that it wasn’t his maiden Tour win – he won the 2017 Nordea Masters and finished 6^th in the BMW International Open in his next start. As with Luiten, he has very strong tee-to-green stats – he ranks 9^th in strokes gained: approach the green and 4^th in strokes gained: tee-to-green, but is also very good at avoiding bogeys (ranked 7^th on the European Tour) and scrambling (also ranked 7^th on the European Tour). He certainly has the game to be a back-to-back winner.

Sam Horsfield

Horsfield is another player in form. He shot 61 in round 3 last week on route to finishing inside the top-10 in the British Masters – his first start since March. His game doesn’t exactly fit this course as he is one of the longest hitters on Tour, but he still ranks 29th in strokes gained: tee-to-green, 24^th in scrambling and 28^th in putts per GIR to show that has plenty of skill with more than just the driver.

Tips  1-2; +35.60pts

1pt e.w. Joost Luiten 14/1 (Betfred, Boyle Sports, Betway 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7)  mc

1pt e.w. Renato Paratore 28/1 (William Hill, BetVictor 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6)  28th

1pt e.w. Sam Horsfield 33/1 (Boyle Sports, Betway 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7)  1st