Preview & Tips

While (almost) all eyes will be on Winged Foot, there will be a European Tour event held without the attention of Sky Sports in Portugal. Admittedly, this is a co-sanctioned event with the Challenge Tour, as it was in 2017, but it does feature a player in the top-100 of the World Rankings. However, with a best price of 9/2, it is clear that there are not a lot of other high ranking players behind George Coetzee.

This event had been a regular feature on the European Tour until 2010, but like many recent events it was removed as the schedule was overhauled aroud the start of that decade. When the event did return in 2017, it was a co-sanctioned event with the Challenge Tour, but it failed to attract any players inside the top-200 of the World Rankings and so it became a Challenge Tour-only event for the next two years. It is only given European Tour status this year because of the special circumstances in which we now operate.

Since the return in 2017, this event has been held at the Morgado Golf and Country Club, but this year it is at the Royal Obidos Spa and Golf Resort. Designed by Seve Ballesteros and opened a year after his death, this is the first time that this course has hosted a Tour event which makes profiling this course rather difficult.

However, this is a resort-style golf course so the fairways are generous and the greens are large. The course features plenty of elevation changes and the fairways and greens are undulating, but the primary feature is that this course is within a mile of the Atlantic Ocean. Alongside ocean views will be the wind that is forecast to be an issue on Friday and Saturday.

With a caveat about the lack of a Tour event at this venue, here are a number of angles that can be used this week.

Angles to consider:

1. Form continues to be important since the Tour re-start

This has been a regular feature since the Tour re-start and with strong reasons. With the exception of Romain Langasque’s win in the Wales Open, all winners since the Tour re-start at the Austrian Open had secured a top-15 finish within the previous three starts. Last week, George Coetzee won after finishing 2^nd and 1^st in the previous two weeks in South Africa.

2. This should be a second-shot course

The wide-open fairways should help players who are long off the tee and who don’t particularly focus on accuracy, but as with all courses close to the sea, ball control is usually more important and that is best reflected in the greens in regulation stats. With large greens, the greens in regulation stats should be rather high this week, but with undulating greens and windy conditions, there will be a high premium upon hitting the ‘correct’ parts of the green this week.

3. An ability to play in windy conditions will help

This is a feature of courses that are close to the sea and this course’s defences will be helped by the forecasted 15-25mph winds on Friday and Saturday. Those winds are not disruptively strong, but will severely test those players who are not used to playing in such winds or do not have the ball control needed.

Selections

The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following player has been selected.

Scott Vincent

The Zimbabwean has spent much of his pro career in Asia, achieving success particularly in Japan where he finished inside the top-15 on the Money List last year. This year, he has played in all ten events since the European Tour re-start, finishing in the top-10 twice and the top-25 five times. It sees him rank 32^nd in scoring average on the European Tour this year which shows how competitive he is at this level. He is long off the tee – ranked 7^th in driving distance in Japan last year – and accurate with his irons – ranked 3^rd in greens in regulation in Japan last year – so he should be well-suited to this course. Fatigue aside, he is certainly capable of winning in Portugal as he has done in Japan.

Jamie Donaldson

Donaldson played in this event when it held full European Tour status, securing three top-10 finishes in five attempts. That is a long time ago, but he has shown recently with three top-15 finishes in his last five starts that he is close to the form that he showed when playing so well in this event previously. His game should be well-suited to this course – he ranks 21^st in greens in regulation on the European Tour and he showed at Valderrama that is comfortable playing in windier conditions. He hasn’t managed to convert his recent chances for victory over the weekend, but this field is much weaker and his experience should matter more if the conditions are more testing.

Oscar Lengden

Lengden has played on the European Tour in each of the last five weeks on the basis of his 2019 Challenge Tour ranking. He is an accomplished player on that Tour having won two Challenge Tour titles. While his form in the last month hasn’t been particularly good, it was good in the co-sanctioned events in Austria in July when he finished inside the top-15 both times and he finished inside the top-20 in the English Championship five weeks ago. He faltered over the weekend having been 4^th at the cut, but this week’s field is primarily a Challenge Tour field so it should be far easier this week if he repeats his opening rounds. Even though he doesn’t have European Tour status, he ranks 19^th in scoring average on the European Tour this season which shows that he is competitive at this level. That scoring is based on strong greens in regulation stats which will be relevant this week.

Tips  0-3; -6.00pts

1pt e.w. Scott Vincent 28/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5)  mc

1pt e.w. Jamie Donaldson 20/1 (Bet365, BetVictor 1/4 1-2-3-4-5)  42nd

1pt e.w. Oscar Lengden 90/1 (BetFred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6)  mc