Preview & Tips

The final event of the first Middle East Swing brings us to Saudi Arabia which was last year a focal point of the sport vs. politics debate. Large appearance fees have seen some of the leading Americans feature this week, but the leading Europeans have swerved the event. That would have been enough for the sport vs politics debate to resurface, but this week’s focus has been on another golfing news item.

The mysterious World Golf Group proposes to launch an 18-event Tour in two years’ time, guaranteeing the world’s best players will compete in 54-hole events for $10 million. Clearly, a four-day event is too demanding for the world’s best players! That proposal can’t be taken seriously until more is known about the World Golf Group, so we will just need to focus on some of the world’s best players here in Saudi Arabia.

Heading the field are three Americans - Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson (the defending champion) and Patrick Reed – though other notable visitors are the Mexican Abraham Ancer (World Ranking #30) and Phil Mickelson. Of these, only Koepka played in one of the other events in the region, finishing 34^th in Abu Dhabi, so their attendance is good for the sponsors and TV audiences, but I don’t think they will feature strongly on Sunday.

With better preparation they should have been able to play well on this course as it is set up for big-hitting, attacking players. The course is very short by Tour standards at only 7,010 yards and plays as a par-70 with just two par-5s. The par for a course can be misleading as two par-4s are over 490 yards in length, but the key issue here is that there are four short par-4s that encourage attacking play from the tee. The winning score was 261 last year which is very low whatever the par for the course.

Generally, this is not a course with many defences. It is only two years old and features gently undulating fairways and bunkers/water that is more picturesque than worrying to the players. It is laid out alongside the Red Sea so wind may be a factor in future years, but it is not expected to be the case this week on the basis of the current forecast.

There is only one year’s course history to draw upon, but last year’s event was very much as expected so the following angles are easy to identify and should be profitable.

Angles to consider:

1. Recent form in the Middle East

Last year, the angle has been about previous form in the Middle East generally, but it became apparent from last year’s leaderboard that it was a little more nuanced. The top-3 had a decent record in the region, but more importantly, they had all finished in the top-20 in at least one of the previous two weeks in the region. Dustin Johnson (winner) had finished 16^th in Abu Dhabi, while Hao-Tong Li (2^nd) had finished 12^th in Dubai and Tom Lewis (3^rd) had finished 9^th in Abu Dhabi. Preparation for this event is important as well general form in this region.

2. Driving matters

The most obvious angle given the setup of the course and this was borne true last year. Johnson is known for his length off the tee even though the European Tour didn’t collate his driving stats. Li and Lewis ranked 4^th and 10^th for driving distance last year, while 4^th-placed Min Woo Li led the field in driving distance that week.

3. Scrambling also matters

For all that the focus was on driving last year, it is also notable that the leaders also ranked particularly highly in scrambling rather than greens in regulation. Again, there are no stats for Johnson, but Li ranked 3^rd in scrambling and only 59^th in greens in regulation, Lewis ranked 5^th and 6^th respectively, Lee ranked 9^th and 26^th respectively, while Alexander Levy (5^th) ranked 12^th and 40^th respectively. The combination of short and very long par-4s clearly puts an emphasis on the short game as well as the driver around Royal Greens Golf and Country Club.

Selections

The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players have been selected.

Sergio Garcia

Widely recognised for years as one of, if not the, best drivers of the ball. He led the European Tour in strokes gained: off the tee last year, ranking 10^th in driving distance in particular. Ranking inside the top-30 for scrambling last year, this is a course that suits him even though he left last year’s event under a cloud of bad publicity after he was disqualified for deliberately damaging the greens. He is back again this year when it may have been easier to avoid the scrutiny and skip the event and he is in fine form, finishing 8^th and 23^rd in the last two weeks. If he can avoid any controversies, he should play well this week.

Mike Lorenzo-Vera

Lorenzo-Vera is another in good form, having finished 8^th last week. With a 13^th place finish on this course last year, he looks to be well-suited to this course and this is borne by his stats. He ranked inside the top-40 for driving distance and 14^th in strokes gained: around the green (21^st in scrambling) on the European Tour last year. Last year was his breakout year and he is a strong contender to win each week on this Tour.

Martin Kaymer

Widely-tipped this week after his recent performances – he has finished 8^th and 16^th in the last two events to confirm that the improvement in his game is not just temporary form. He didn’t play last year, he is solid off the tee (27^th in strokes gained: off the tee last year) and around the greens (33^rd in strokes gained: around the greens), so warrants his popularity as a tipped player this week.

Tips  1-2; -2.76pts

1pts e.w. Sergio Garcia 22/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  6th

1pt e.w. Mike Lorenzo-Vera 40/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  mc

1pt e.w. Martin Kaymer 35/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  13th