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The final leg of the second UK Swing takes places at Fairmont St Andews and for the first time since the Tour restart, there is a very different look to this week’s field. Less than 40% of the 108 players in this week’s field played in last week’s event. That figure has been between 80% and 90% each week since the restart. After the Rolex Series events of the last two weeks, this resembles the co-sanctioned events with the Challenge Tour in summer. They will compete around the Torrance course at Fairmont St Andrews, designed by Denis Griffiths with input from Sam Torrance. The course was built in 2001 and re-designed in 2008, so it is not a traditional links in the pure sense of the word, but it certainly looks like one. The fairways and greens are generous, as they are only a few miles away on the Old Course, and scores will be low if the winds are as light as forecast. This is October though, so it won’t be warm as anyone who has played in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship will know. The hardness of the fairways is lessened at this time of the year, so low winds should equate to low scores for those comfortable with this type of golf course. Here are a few angles that can be used this week. Angles to consider: 1. Links form and experience is essential The weather forecast may suggest that the winds will be very light this week, and so the main defence of links courses is compromised, but the weather can be very changeable by the sea and these course types are unlike any other. The leaderboard for the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship always has a very familiar feel to it and, despite the weak field, it will be a major surprise if the winner doesn’t already have experience and success on links courses already. 2. Recent form matters this year This has been a regular feature since the Tour re-start and with strong reasons. With the exception of Romain Langasque’s win in the Wales Open, all winners since the Tour re-start at the Austrian Open had secured a top-15 finish within the previous three starts. If anything, this trend has been getting even stronger in the last month: three weeks ago, John Catlin won for the second time in three starts; two weeks ago, Aaron Rai won the Scottish Open having finished 2nd the previous week; and last week, Tyrrell Hatton won the BMW PGA Championship having finished 5th two starts previously in the Tour Championship on the PGA Tour. 3. Greens in regulation should be an important predictive stat The greens are large around this course so the GIR stats should be high this week, but ball control is very important around links courses, starting from the tee. There is no stat for ‘ball control’ but greens in regulation should be the best indicator of those players who will be able to plot their way around a links course in calm conditions. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following player has been selected. Robert Macintyre Since the restart, Macintyre hasn’t quite discovered the form that saw him finish 2nd three times on the European Tour in his rookie season last year, but he hasn’t missed a cut in seven starts since the restart, including two Majors, and he finished 14th in the Scottish Open two weeks ago. Given that the Scot can evidence plenty of experience on links courses and finished 6th in the Open Championship at Royal Portrush last year, he should play well on this course. He ranks 7th in strokes gained: tee to green and 24th in strokes gained: approach the green to evidence that he does have the ball control necessary on links courses. Renato Paratore Paratore has already won once since the Tour restart – the British Masters in July – and a 7th place finish last week in the BMW PGA Championship shows that his form is back at the same level. His links pedigree isn’t outstanding, but he did finish 7th in the 2016 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship and his ball control is excellent – he ranks 12th in strokes gained: tee to green and 9th in strokes gained: approach the green. Against this field and if the weather is calm, he should feature strongly. Matthew Jordan Jordan is certainly very comfortable on links courses. He grew up playing at Royal Liverpool Golf Club, won the 2017 St Andrews Links Trophy and won the 2018 Lytham Trophy by nine shots before turning professional later that year having attained a handicap of +7. This is his rookie season on the European Tour, but he has already finished 3rd in the Wales Open and secured six top-20 finishes in his last 11 Tour starts. Last week at the BMW PGA Championship, he was 3rd at the cut, but bounced back from a poor 3rd round to finish in the top-15. He is well-fancied this week and it will surely not be too long before he wins on this Tour. Tips 0-3; -6.00pts 1pt e.w. Robert Macintyre 16/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) wd 1pt e.w. Renato Paratore 22/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 37th 1pt e.w. Matthew Jordan 22/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 25th
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