Preview & Tips

The first Rolex Series event since January marks a significant change in the European Tour. While the first UK Swing in July/August was limited by the staging of the WGC St Jude Invitational and the PGA Championship, this time there are no trans-Atlantic distractions until The Masters in November. This week’s prize money has increased six-fold over last week’s Irish Open as, it was hoped, the European Tour would feature a much stronger field this week. Twenty-four players return to the Tour this week after playing in the U.S. Open, but with Justin Rose and Shane Lowry withdrawing their entries to this event, it is a weaker field that originally expected. Next week at Wentworth should be better.

Typically played the week before the Open Championship, the Scottish Open is traditionally the middle-event in a ‘Links Swing’ with the Irish Open played the week before. Last week’s event at Galgorm Castle was not on a links course and this week’s event is on a ‘links-type’ rather than a traditional links course. Although neighbouring Muirfield and Gullane, The Renaissance Club is only 12 years old and played much easier than a links course in its event debut last year. Now being played in the first week of October and with the course having been lengthened by 200 yards since last year, alongside other changes, it should feel more like a traditional links this week.

Alongside the key changes to the course this year are the reversal of holes 1-7 and 10-16, which allows the holes alongside the First of Forth to played on the back nine. This will mean that the opening holes will play significantly easier with only the par-5s providing any respite over the closing 11 holes. The changes to the course should make scoring more difficult as evidenced by the Ladies Scottish Open which is also hosted here. The scoring average at this year’s event was almost two shots higher than last year.

Here are a few angles that can be used this week.

Angles to consider:

1 Look for previous experience in this event

Links golf is unique, so the standard angle would be to look at experience in links events. That can be done easily, but this is a more focused approach on this event. Every winner since the event moved to a links course (2011) had previously competed in this event. Even the 400/1 winner in 2018, Brandon Stone, had competed the previous year at Dundonald Links. Both players in last year’s playoff, Bernd Wiesberger and Benjamin Hebert, had competed in this event five times previously, 2017’s winner, Rafa Cabrera Bello, had competed in eight previous Scottish Opens, while the six previous winners of this event back to 2011 had all achieved at least one top-10 finish in this event. Links experience is important, but so is links experience in this particular event.

2. The par-5s are crucial to scoring around The Renaissance Club

Admittedly, the conditions last year are unlikely to be repeated this year, but last years’ playoff contenders led the field in par-5 scoring at 13-under-par. And this is not restricted to the one European Tour event held here. The two winners of the Ladies Scottish Open here have ranked 1st (2018) and 2^nd (2019) in par-5 scoring that week. They both ranked 12th in par-3 scoring and 16th in par-4 scoring. With the changes primarily to the par-4s, the focus will again be on the par-5s to score well this week.

3. An ability to play in wind will also be important

This is normally standard on courses next to the sea. While there were benign conditions last year, the current Met Office forecast is for a gentle breeze through the first few days, but with gusts of 15mph plus and winds rising over the weekend with wind speeds of 15mph and gusts of around 30mph on Sunday. With an Easterly wind, it won’t be particularly warm and the wind will have far more of an impact this year.

Selections

The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following player has been selected.

Thomas Pieters

Pieters is one of those European Tour players returning after the U.S. Open, where he featured strongly before falling back to finish 23^rd. His previous two starts on the European Tour since summer resulted in 3^rd and 15^th places in the Celtic Classic and Wales Open, respectively, so he has shown good form since the birth of his daughter. This will be his sixth Scottish Open. His best finish is 6^th around nearly Gullane in 2018 and he finished in the top-20 last year. Ranking 4th in par-5 scoring on the European Tour this year and a good wind player – as he showed in the Wales Open – he should be a very strong contender this week.

Erik Van Rooyen

Van Rooyen is also returning to the European Tour after finishing 23^rd at Winged Foot. He has been playing full-time on the PGA Tour since last competing in the Saudi International with a best finish of 3^rd in the WGC Mexico Championship. Given the standard of this field, that puts him near the top of most odds markets. He is proven on this course – he was the joint-leader after 36 holes with Wiesberger last year before falling back to finish 14^th – and like most South Africans, he is comfortable in wind and links courses, finishing 20^th in last year’s Open Championship.

Bernd Wiesberger

There are plenty of reasons to expect the course to play rather differently this year, but there are still reasons to expect Wiesberger to make a strong defence of his title. It may seem a long time ago, but he won three times on the European Tour last year to lift himself to 22^nd in the World Rankings at the end of 2019. He has since dropped to 33^rd as his form hasn’t matched that of last year, but he showed much better form when finishing 5^th in the UK Championship four weeks ago and then 43^rd in the U.S. Open two weeks ago. His first win of 2019, the Made in Denmark event, featured moderate to strong winds on all four days, as it did for three days in the UK Championship last month, so he has strong enough wind credentials to suggest that he could well defend in rather different circumstances this year.

Tips:  1-2; +0.60pts

1pt e.w. Thomas Pieters 20/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  mc

1pt e.w. Erik Van Rooyen 28/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  6th

1pt e.w. Bernd Wiesberger 20/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  48th