Preview & Tips

For the first time since 2011, the Tour’s closing event of the year is the Tour Championship. This is how a season should end. The top-60 on the Race to Dubai points list earn their place at the season-ending event at which the European #1 is crowned.

But that is not quite how it has turned out. It is the year-ending event, but the current leader on the Race to Dubai list, Patrick Reed, has played in only two events that are on the European Tour alone, while 3^rd-placed Collin Morikawa hasn’t played in anything other than events on the PGA Tour, WGC and Majors. This is the consequence of the points system and the lack of a full European Tour schedule. A fitting finale to the most unusual of golf seasons.

Given the concerns over the international travel, a number of players are not playing this week, even though they are eligible: Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm, for example. This has resulted in the European Tour extending the qualification to the top-72 on the points list and extending invites to four players, including last week’s winner in Mexico, Viktor Hovland. It may be an unusual way to fill the field for this event, but despite the omissions of key players, this is still the strongest field on the European Tour in 2020. It is a fitting finale.

This week’s field will compete on the Earth courses at the Jumeirah Golf Estates. A Greg Norman-designed typical desert course. It is very long – measuring 7,675 yards – featuring generous fairways, plenty of water (for the middle of the desert) and plenty of sand. Water features on each of the last three holes to add to the drama of the finish here with an island green for the par-3 17^th hole and water in place for both those laying up and those going for the green on the par-5 18th hole, and there are 99 bunkers.

This is described as an altogether different proposition to the Fire course used last week. It is undoubtedly a much harder course, but a look at the winning scores suggests that this course may be dramatic but it is not difficult. The average winning score over the 11 years here is 268.5 or 19.5 under par.

The rough has been toughened up over the years and length off the tee has become less of an advantage, but the formula is clear. Stay out of trouble off the tee so that the pin can be attacked for approach shots and putt well on the fast greens. That looks like the formula for any course, but there is nothing particularly different that is required here. The rough is not too punitive, the fairways are not too narrow and the greens are not small. It is a good course for TV with its closing holes and it is a good course to showcase the best players’ talents.

Here are a few angles that can be used this week.

Angles to consider:

1. Recent form is important

This may seem obvious given that this event typically features the top-60 players on the European Tour, but that is a measure over the whole season whereas closing the season in strong form is not necessarily the same. Nine of the eleven winners here recorded at least one top-10 finish in their previous two starts. The two exceptions were Matthew Fitzpatrick (2016) who had recorded top-20 finishes in both of his previous two starts (a WGC event and a Rolex Series event) and Jon Rahm (2017) who still had four top-10 finishes in the PGA Tour Playoffs within his last seven starts. Clearly both ‘exceptions’ had strong incoming form anyway.

2. Tee-to-green stats matter here

Given the lack of challenges off the tee, despite the length of the course, and the winning scores, it is clear that approach shots are central to any low score here. Good approach play presents the players with the birdie chances that they need to win. There are exceptions to the rule, but last year is a clear example: the top-4 on the leaderboard all ranked inside the top-5 for strokes gained – tee-to-green. That shows that it is before the green rather than on the green that is more important here. In terms of greens in regulation stats, Rahm won last and ranked 1^st for GIR, as did Henrik Stenson in 2013 and Lee Westwood in 2009. In total, seven of the eleven winners ranked inside the top-4 for GIR that week,

3. The par-5s are key to scoring here

The par-5s are not short – the shortest is 572 yards and two of the four are over 600 yards in length - but it is evident that the key to a low score is the par-5s. Last year, Jon Rahm and Tommy Fleetwood finished 1^st and 2^nd on the leaderboard and ranked 1^st and 2^nd, respectively, in par-5 scoring. In 2018, Danny Willett and Matt Wallace finished 1^st and 2^nd on the leaderboard and ranked 1^st and 2^nd, respectively, in par-5 scoring. In nine of eleven years here, the leader in par-5 scoring has finished inside the top-3 on the leaderboard. That has been the case in seven of eleven years for par-4 scoring (despite there being many more par-4s) and in three of eleven years for par-3 scoring.

Selections

The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected.

Patrick Reed

Being the current leader of the Race to Dubai is typically a handicap in this season-ending event, but that has been when only a handful of people could win the season title. With that race so open with so few events played, there should be far less pressure on the current #1. Even if not, Reed is the type of player who revels under pressure. He comes into the event in very good form, returns to this Tour after finishing 3^rd in the BMW PGA Championship in October and ranked highly in strokes gained - tee-to-green on the PGA Tour last year. He also ranked inside the top-20 for top-5 scoring on the PGA Tour last year. A regular in this event – he has finishes of 10^th, 10^th and 2^nd in the last five years – he should at least be placed this week.

Bernd Wiesberger

Wiesberger is another who has been in great form recently, finishing 4^th in the RSM Classic on the PGA Tour and 8^th last week on the Fire course at Jumeirah, when he led the field in birdies and par-5 scoring. He does have a top-5 finish on this course previously (2016) as his game profile fits this course very well – he ranks 7^th in strokes gained – tee-to-green on the European Tour this year.

Matt Wallace

A runner-up finish round around the Fire course last week was an indication that he is close to his best form. He hasn’t won since winning four titles in 11 months in 2017-18, but last week was his fifth runners-up finish on the European Tour since that winning run, and those 2^nd place finishes include this event (2018). Top-20 in par-5 scoring on the European Tour, he has the game profile as well as the form to at least repeat that 2018 performance.

Rasmus Hojgaard

By contrast, Hojgaard’s form has dipped since winning the UK Championship in August to complete a run of 2^nd-6^th-3^rd-1^st place finishes after the resumption of the Tour in summer. His form is replicated in his odds to win, but given that he is a good fit for this course – he ranks 4^th in strokes gained – tee-to-green and 5th in greens under regulation – he could certainly revert to his mid-summer form this week.

John Catlin

Catlin is another who had a purple patch of form in summer, finishing 1^st-8^th-1^st in September. He hasn’t played since the BMW PGA Championship in October so may be a little rusty, but triple-digits odds on a player who has won twice in the last three months is enough incentive to side with the American.

Jazz Janewattanond

Janewattanond is one of the invited players to this event on the basis of his World Ranking. He won four times in Asia last year and finished 3^rd in the Irish Open in September so is competitive at this level. He played on the Fire course last week, ranking 1^st in eagles and 9^th in par-5 scoring so warrants a speculative selection.

Shaun Norris

Norris is another with multiple international wins and so warrants a speculative selection. He ranked 2nd in the Money List on the Japan Tour last season and recorded 15 top-5 finishes on that Tour across 2018 and 2019. With a 3^rd place finish in the Joburg Open three weeks ago, he has the form to be a contender for this title.

Tips  1-6; -3.20pts

1pt e.w. Patrick Reed 9/1 (William Hill 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7)  3rd

0.5pts e.w. Bernd Wiesberger 28/1 (William Hill 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7)  36th

0.5pts e.w. Matt Wallace 25/1 (William Hill, BetFred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7)  29th

0.25pts e.w. Rasmus Hojgaard 100/1 (888sport, Unibet 1/4 1-2-3-4-5)  51th

0.25pts e.w. John Catlin 125/1 (Skybet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7)  54ht

0.25pts e.w. Jazz Janewattanond 125/1 (Skybet, William Hill 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7)  57th

0.25pts e.w. Shaun Norris 125/1 (Skybet, William Hill 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7)  23rd