Preview & Tips

I have written in previous weeks about the sense of déja vu, but it gets no more real than the same course being used for two weeks in a row. Admittedly, that was the case with the Workday Open and the Memorial Tournament last month on the PGA Tour, but Jack Nicklaus wanted the latter to have the setup of a Major and so the two events were very different. That will not be the case this week. The wet weather has continued to make the course still easier than usual, given that the rough is rather thin, and only the threat of stiffer winds this week will make this course any different to last week.

Last week’s preview is available here - https://www.tour-tips.com/Euro/Archive/Celtic_preview.htm. Given the above, there seems little point in repeating last week’s preamble, so let’s fast-forward to the angles to identify players who should contend.

Angles to consider:

1. Form has been important since the re-start

Last week’s #1 angle re: the importance of driving turned out to be wrong. Only John Catlin (1^st in driving accuracy) and David Horsey (10^th in driving accuracy) finished in the top-10 with a top-10 ranking in driving accuracy; no-one finished in the top-10 with a top-10 ranking in driving distance. So let’s return to the angle that had been a feature in the previous two weeks. It is, after all, even stronger now that the angle has been correct in the last two weeks as well. To recap, there have now been five events since the Tour re-start at the Austrian Open and all five winners had secured a top-15 finish within the previous two weeks.

2. Greens in regulation will be a key stat

This stat is carried over from last week. The argument was that this was a venue for the Ryder Cup and so is a strong test of the whole game, while providing a strong risk-reward element. That normally translates into good GIR stats and the last five Wales Open winners here have ranked 1^st-2^nd-7^th-26^th-4^th in greens in regulation that week. Last week, Sam Horsfield won and ranked 12^th in greens in regulation; Thomas Detry was 2^nd and ranked 3^rd in greens in regulation. All players in the top-5 on the leaderboard ranked inside the top-12 for strokes gained: approach the green.

3. Parallels with the Hero Open

Last week, the parallel was with the Le Golf National and there was a logic to this with both courses having staged Ryder Cups in the last decade. While that is still valid, there is an even more striking parallel. Three weeks ago, it was a final day head-to-head duel between Horsfield and Detry for the Hero Open with Horsfield establishing an early lead and hanging on to win; last week, it was the same two players with a near identical back nine. Of the other players who finished in the top-5 last week, neither Thomas Pieters nor Andrew Johnston played in the Hero Open - Pieters was making his return to the Tour after the birth of his daughter, while Johnston decided not to play in the Hero Open as he had struggled the previous week in the Covid-19-controlled environment in the Tour re-start – but Connor Syme had played in the Hero Open was inside the top-10 after the first round.

Selections

The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players have been selected.

Thomas Pieters

Pieters had been odds-on to win last week’s event during round three, such was his lead and his dominance at the time. However, after finding an unplayable lie, he was forced to walk back to the tee and then put his next shot in the water. He lost the lead and didn’t recover that form until late in the final round to finish 3^rd. The manner of his fall from form is indicative of a player who hadn’t competed on Tour for five months. This week, that rustiness should not be a factor and he showed that, even though his game was not as sharp as it could be, he could dominate this course. He was backed last week as the course suits his game. The odds are shorted this week, but his game should be much sharper.

Sam Horsfield

He was backed and won the Hero Open three weeks ago. He was backed and missed the cut two weeks ago. He was not backed last week as a result of the ‘form’ angle being dropped but he won again. I don’t see any reason why he can’t win for the third time in four weeks. At least 75% of players play consecutive weeks on this European Tour re-start. With so may of the 132 players each week the same, and the courses so similar, as well the Covid-19 controlled environment, there is a very strong similarity between both the fields and the leaderboards each week. Horsfield’s game has been very good in its entirety without being spectacularly good. He didn’t rank in the top-10 for driving distance, driving accuracy, greens in regulation, scrambling, putts per GIR or putts per round last week, but he was still the best player on view last week. He is playing at a level far above these weakened-field European Tour events.

Andrew Johnston

Since he has returned to the Tour and addressed the mental health challenges that it poses, Johnson has finished 19^th and 3^rd in the last two events. He had been 4^th at the cut in the English Championship, but rustiness and maybe non-golf factors saw him fall back over the weekend to 19^th. There was no such pattern last week as he started and finished the weekend in 3^rd position. He ranked 2^nd in strokes gained: approach the green last week to show that his game was good enough to win and he looks a likely winner this week.

Tips  0-3; -6.00pts

1pt e.w. Thomas Pieters 11/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5)  15th

1pt e.w. Sam Horsfield 12/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5)  44th

1pt e.w. Andrew Johnston 22/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7)  37th