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After a five-week hiatus, the European Tour is back with a bang. Not only in terms of the players competing this week – World #3 Justin Thomas is here alongside Rory McIlroy who is making his first European Tour start since 2019 – but in terms of the prize money – at $8million, it is more than twice the purse for next week’s Dubai Desert Classic and it is only one of four Rolex Series events this year. Unusually, though this also occurred in 2019, this event is not preceded by at least one tournament in South Africa so only Thomas has played any Tour golf in the last five weeks – he finished 3rd in the Sentry Tournament of Champions. Rustiness may be an issue this week, particularly for those players who live in areas most affected by covid lockdowns. This event has been played at the same venue since the inaugural event in 2006, won by Chris DiMarco, so that means that there is plenty of course form available this week. However, it is worth noting that most tipsters find little evidence of course form being an advantage this week. More on that later. The course is long, measuring 7,642 yards, but is flat and exposed. There have been changes to the course over the years, most significantly in 2012 to add bunkers in key landing areas and to tighten the fairways, which has made accuracy more important than previously. Last year’s winner, Lee Westwood ranked 1st for driving accuracy and only 44th for driving distance as support, however Victor Perez finished 2nd and he ranked 33rd for driving accuracy and 3rd for driving distance. The final stat in this regard is that Westwood ranked 5th for strokes gained off the tee, so driving is important but not a key angle here. The greens are amongst the best on the European Tour as well as amongst the fastest. There is grain within the Bermuda Tifdwarf strain, but good putters are rewarded on these greens and the winning scores suggest that this a course for low-scoring and plenty of birdies if the winds are calm. This is a region in which wind is typically a factor and this is expected to be strongest over the first couple of days. Given the long history at this course, the following angles should be profitable. Angles to consider: 1. Previous form in this event When just two players – Martin Kaymer and Paul Casey – won this event between for five years between 2007 and 2011, this event was labelled as one in which course form was vital. Since the 2012 renovations that has not been the case with only Tommy Fleetwood being a multiple winner (2017, 2018) and many winners having multiple missed cuts previously here. However, there is one thing that every winner since 2007 (the first possible year) has in common: they have all played in this event at least once previously. No course rookie has won this event. Form in the desert is a common angle in this region, but more specifically, this course needs to be learned before it can be mastered. And this goes beyond winners. Since 2014 only one player, Dustin Johnson (2017), has finished in the top-5 on his course debut. 2. Previous form before the event Traditionally played in the first couple of weeks of the year, this can hardly be called ‘current form’, but there is evidence that a high finish at the end of the previous year carries over to the new year. In eight of the last nine years, the winner had finished inside the top-10 in at least one of their previous two starts. The only exception is Pablo Larrazabal (2014), but his previous form could still be classed as good as he finished in the top-10 in three of his previous seven starts. 3. Greens in regulation is key this week Tommy Fleetwood led the field in greens in regulation on both occasions that he won in 2017 and 2018. In 2019, Shane Lowry won this event on and around the greens, but the three players behind him in 2nd to 4th spots, all ranked inside the top-3 for greens in regulation. Last year, Westwood also won this event with a very strong putting display, but he still ranked inside the top-10 for greens in regulation, as did all players inside the top-5 on the leaderboard. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected. Ryan Fox This will be Fox’s fifth visit to Abu Dhabi GC, having finished 19th-32nd-27th-mc in his previous four visits. The New Zealander’s last Tour outing was a top-20 finish in the BMW PGA Championship, but he has been able to practice in his homeland over the last couple of months and even celebrated the birth of his daughter a month ago. Nappy factor alert! Back to the golf and he looks a good fit for this course, ranking 19th for strokes gained: off the tee, 8th for strokes gained: approach the greens and 3rd for strokes gained: tee-to-green. With those stats, he only needs a decent putting week and he will shoot very low scores. Justin Harding This will be Harding’s second visit to Abu Dhabi GC, having finished 51st last year. He has also won on the European Tour in the region, winning the 2019 Qatar Masters, his 10th Tour win across the European, Asian PGA and Southern Africa Tours. His form in the second half of 2020 was rather patchy as he also played in events on the PGA and Korn Ferry Tours, but he did secure two top-3 finishes on the European Tour. In terms of course fit, he ranks 23rd in strokes gained: approach the green and 29th in strokes gained: tee to green on the European Tour so, like Fox, he has the game to do well on this course and only needs a decent putting week to really contend. George Coetzee Another South Africa to complete a trio of Southern Hemisphere players who will have had better conditions for preparation than many players this week. His last appearance was to finish 29th in the DP World Tour Championship, but it had already been a very impressive late season for Coetzee – he finished 2nd-1st-1st-3rd across four events in South Africa and Portugal in September. He has three top-10 finishes on this course and a solid all-round game, so has a decent chance to secure a fourth this week. Julien Guerrier Guerrier missed the cut on his course debut last year, but that experience is important as argued above. He has fared well in the region, finishing 3rd in the Oman Open and was 9th in his last outing, the South African Open. His strengths lie off the tee – 24th in driving distance – and around the green – 17th in strokes gained: around the green and 38th in strokes gained: putting, so his chances here may be helped if the wind does blow and hitting the greens is harder than usual. Tips 0-4; -4.00pts 0.5pts e.w. Ryan Fox 125/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 888sport 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) mc 0.5pts e.w. Justin Harding 150/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 888sport 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 62nd 0.5pts e.w. George Coetzee 175/1 (Unibet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6) 11th 0.5pts e.w. Julien Guerrier 250/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10) 51nd
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