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Welcome to the Jon Rahm show, take two. It was all going to plan on that first day and particularly for the first nine holes, but he showed just enough frailty over the next three days to make it a very exciting Open de Espana, particularly for the home fans and particularly those who had backed Cabrera Bello. Cue the crescendo of ‘nappy factor’ claims, despite being so poor since the birth of his second child two months ago. What the European Tour has lacked in terms of marquee fields this year, it has made up for in terms of Sunday drama. Again, we are missing a host of leading players from the Tour beyond Rahm. Not even Sergio Garcia is here, having been so dominant in this event. However, two Ryder Cup players return to the Tour this week: Matthew Fitzpatrick and Bernd Wiesberger. Those that have travelled to Valderrama play on a course that has a long history on the Europen Tour, as well as staging the 1997 Ryder Cup. It staged the season-ending Volvo Masters between 1988 and 1996 and again between 2002 and 2008, while also staging the WGC-American Express Championship in 1999 and 2000. After staging the Andalucía Masters in 2010 and 2011, Valderrama disappeared from the European Tour schedule for a number of years before returning in 2016 for the Open de Espana and the re-convened Andalucía Masters from 2017 onwards. That means that there is plenty of history, albeit only five events in the last nine years. The course is tough. The fairways are narrow, sloped and lined with cork trees, while the greens are smaller than average for the European Tour, but are fast and undulating. Despite the famous 17th hole, water only features on three holes at Valderrama. Unlike the most Ryder Cup venues, Valderrama is clearly not a course for either the bombers or the more aggressive players on Tour. It is often described as a quirky course, which is normally combined with an insistence that course form is essential here, typically citing Garcia. Simply finding a player who matches Garcia’s game – very strong with the driver and around the greens – would be a feasible angle, but there is a rich course history and that identifies different angles to identify players who should contend. Angles to consider: 1. Course history is important at Valderrama This is a quirky course so experience is key here. Garcia is the obvious example of that, but it is also evidenced by the players who finished just behind the winners. Last year, John Catlin won his first of two events in three starts, but runner-up Martin Kaymer had previously recorded three top-6 finishes in six visits. In 2019, Shane Lowry finished 2nd to Garcia and his previous record at Valderrama read 18th-4th-12th. Joost Luiten finished 2nd to Garcia in 2017, having finished 2nd at Valderrama in the 2016 Open de Espana and 5th in the 2010 Andalucía Masters. Andrew Johnston’s win in the 2016 Open de Espana may be the viewed as the exception to the rule, but it was the first time in five years that Valderrama had been used on Tour so it would be difficult to record high recent finishes on the course, but the three players directly behind him were Joost Luiten (2nd, previous finish of 5th at Valderrama in 2010), Sergio Garcia (3rd, winner of the last event at Valderrama in 2011) and Soren Kjeldsen (4th, 2nd at Valderrama in 2010). 2. Greens in regulation is the key stat Good ball-striking skills and good course management are key to securing a strong greens in regulation stat and those are very important at Valderrama. All five winners of the four Andalucía Masters prior to Catlin last year and the 2016 Open de Espana had ranked inside the top-10 for greens in regulation that week (top-ranked in two of five cases). By comparison, it is one of six for driving distance, five of six for driving accuracy, four of six for putts per green in regulation and three of six for scrambling. In terms of last year’s exception to the rule, three other players finished in the top-3 – Kaymer, Harding and Besseling – and all three ranked inside the top-4 for greens in regulation that week. Accuracy off the tee is clearly important, but finding those small, undulating greens at Valderrama will be a profitable strategy this week. 3. The par-fours where events are won (and lost) at Valderrama For all the drama of the 17th hole, a par-five, it is the ability of the players to manage the winding corridors between the cork trees that determines success on this course. An inability to do so can lead to high scores, so course management on those holes is important. There have been seven events at Valderrama in the last ten years and the winners here have ranked 2nd-1st-1st-3rd-1st-1st-4th in par-four scoring that week. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected. Thomas Pieters Pieters has surprisingly only played this course once previously, but it is supportive: he was inside the top-15 for much of the 2016 Open de Espana before falling back in the final round to 26th. He is a player in good form with top-10 finishes in two of his last three starts and will find the weather much more comfortable than in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. Ranking 3rd in strokes gained: tee to green as well top-25 in greens in regulation and scrambling, he has the game to fare well at Valderrama. Rafa Cabrera Bello It is tough to follow up a win, particularly one that was clearly so emotional, but in his last European Tour win (2017 Scottish Open), he followed up with a 4th finish the week later in the Open Championship, just as did with his first European Tour win (2009 Austrian Open) and his 4th place finish in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. He has finished the top-20 in each of his last two visits to Valderrama and his iron play and short game will be far more suited to this course than last week’s. Martin Kaymer Kaymer competed in last year’s event and finished 2nd behind Catlin, his fourth top-6 finish in seven visits to Valderrama so it is safe to assume that this course plays to his strengths and that is his iron play: he ranks inside the top-5 for strokes gained: approach the green on the European Tour. It has been seven years since he last won a Tour event (2014 U.S. Open), but he continues to get himself into contention. Richard Bland Has six top-5 finishes in his last twelve starts, including a win at the British Masters, so a 9th place finish last week was comparatively disappointing. Has been really impressive since that win and so ranks 6th for scoring average on the European Tour this season. In of the above angles, he ranks inside the top-20 for par-4 scoring, strokes gained: approach the green and greens in regulation as well as inside the top-5 for scrambling. As outlined last week, in this form, he is competitive on virtually every course. Mikko Korhonen Has four top-10 finishes in his last 11 starts and, even though he didn’t make that mark last week, he shot all four rounds in the 70s and finished inside the top-20. Finished 3rd here in 2018 so has a good course history, while a top-15 ranking for par-4 scoring and strokes gained: approach the green also suggests that he should fare well again on this course. Andrew Johnston A former winner of the Open de Espana (2016) on this course is a positive indication for a player who has become very consistent on the European Tour: he ranks 5th in scoring average. Fits the Garcia mould of strengths with the driver and the short game (12th or better for strokes gained: off the tee and scrambling on the European Tour) so should once again feature this week. Robert Macintyre Hasn’t been at his best since attempting to earn a PGA Tour via the Korn Ferry Tour Playoffs, but finished inside the top-25 here last year and still ranks as one of the European Tour’s leading players, ranking inside the top-20 for par-4 scoring, strokes gained: off the tee, strokes gained: tee to green, greens in regulation and scrambling. He certainly has the game to play well again on this course. Guido Migliozzi Runner-up in consecutive events in May and finished in the top-20 at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship to confirm his form. As the fifth-ranked player in terms of scoring average on the European Tour, he is another at the very top of this Tour. Was the first round leader on this course last year before finished 6th at the end of the week. Antoine Rozner Hasn’t rediscovered his game after switching to the PGA for a series of event in Spring, following two wins in six starts on the European Tour, but there is encouragement with a top-15 finish in the European Masters and he was very good from tee-to-green last week. Still ranks very highly tee-to-green – with top-10 ranking for strokes gained: off the tee, strokes gained: tee to green, and greens in regulation – so has the game to follow up his top-3 finish here last year. Masahiro Kawamura Another player ranked highly in terms of scoring average of the European Tour (17th). Didn’t make the cut last week, but three top-5 finishes in his last nine starts is very supportive, as are his top-30 rankings on the European Tour for par-4 scoring and strokes gained: tee to green. Finished in the top-10 here last year. Justin Harding Another player competing at the top tier of the European Tour with a top-15 ranking for scoring average this season, although rather erratic in terms of performances recently. Has three top-10 finishes in his last eight starts and has a particularly good record in Spain: he finished 3rd here last year in a run of four consecutive top-15 finishes in this country. Jamie Donaldson Another very good tee-to-green player. Finished runner-up in the BMW PGA Championship, his second top-3 finish in four starts. Finished in the top-10 here last year and in 2017 and has finished in the top-25 in his last five starts in Spain. Very consistent, ranking in the top-15 for scoring average on the European Tour. Tips 0-12; -6.00pts 0.25pts e.w. Thomas Pieters 35/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) mc 0.25pts e.w. Rafa Cabrera Bello 35/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 35th 0.25pts e.w. Martin Kaymer 33/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 60th 0.25pts e.w. Richard Bland 35/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) mc 0.25pts e.w. Mikko Korhonen 50/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) mc 0.25pts e.w. Andrew Johnston 45/1 (Unibet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6) 15th 0.25pts e.w. Robert Macintyre 45/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 53rd 0.25pts e.w. Guido Migliozzi 45/1 (Bet365, Sporting Index 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) mc 0.25pts e.w Antoine Rozner 60/1 (888sport 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) mc 0.25pts e.w. Masahiro Kawamura 50/1 (888sport 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 37th 0.25pts e.w. Justin Harding 66/1 (Sporting Index 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 53rd 0.25pts e.w. Jamie Donaldson 55/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) mc
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