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This week was supposed to be the Tenerife Open, the first of three weeks on the Iberian Peninsula. But after the Portugal Masters was cancelled less than four weeks ago due to Covid-19 restrictions around travel, the Tenerife Open was switched to take the slot vacated by the Portugal Masters and the Austrian Golf Federation and Diamond Country Club stepped in to offer the Austrian Open as a replacement event. Struggling with being scheduled the week before the U.S. Open, they introduced the innovative Shot Clock Masters in 2018. And then, last year, they offered a return to this course when the European Tour re-started after a four-month hiatus due to Covid-19. They cannot be faulted for effort and deserve a regular place on the European Tour once ‘normal’ conditions return. The Austrian Open was a regular feature on the European Tour between 2008 and 2018, albeit under different guises as the Lyoness Open and Shot Clock Masters, and the Diamond Country Club was used from 2010 onwards. That means that there is plenty of history to draw upon, but last year’s event can be excluded from that analysis given that it was the first event after the Covid-19 restrictions were lifted. The European Tour also failed to record any stats that week. The course is flat and exposed and not short at 7,458 yards in length. This is a course that examines players’ skills from tee to green. Once the green is reached, the surfaces are generally considered to be very true. Given this description, it would be expected to host some of Europe’s best golfers each year, but the event has suffered from being scheduled the week before the U.S. Open. Played the week after The Masters, there are none of last week’s players in this week’s field so the scheduling issues remain. However, this is a much stronger field than last year. One caveat though: this event is normally played in June on a firm course; this year, the temperatures will barely reach 50 degrees Fahrenheit and there is a 33% chance of snow on Friday morning according to the latest weather forecast. It will be cold, the course will be soft and the greens will not be as pure as they normally are. With the above caveat as a precautionary note, the following angles from 2010 to 2018 have been identified as potentially profitable this week. Angles to consider: 1. Cream rises to the top Even with the innovative format in 2018, it has almost always been one of the top-10 ranked players in the field who won that week at Diamond CC. In terms of World Rankings, Mikko Korhonen won in 2018 and was ranked 7th best within the field, Dylan Frittelli won in 2017 and was ranked 4th, Ashun Wu won in 2016 and ranked 19th (one exception to the rule), Chris Wood won in 2015 and ranked 7th, Mikael Lundberg won in 2014 ranked 102nd, but 2nd-placed Bernd Wiesberger was ranked 3rd and 3rd-placed Joost Luiten was ranked 2nd, Luiten won in 2013 and ranked 7th, while Wiesberger won in 2012 and ranked 2nd. 2. Greens in regulation will be a key stat This is a good course that will test all aspects of the tee-to-green game. In the nine events played at Diamond CC between 2010 and 2018, the winner ranked 8th-4th-11th-1st-20th-6th-6th-13th-4th in greens in regulation that week. On the three occasions that the winner ranked outside the top-8 in greens in regulation, the 2nd-placed player ranked either 1st or 2nd in greens in regulation to confirm the importance of tee-to-green play this week. 3. The par-4s will be key to scoring This is an angle found with all challenging courses. In five of nine events between 2010 and 2018, the winner ranked 1st in par-4 scoring that week. Of the four exceptions, in 2015 the winner, Jose Manuel Lara ranked 2nd in this category, while the playoff loser, David Lynn, ranked 1st. In the other three years, the leader in this category always finished in the top-4 on the leaderboard. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected. Kurt Kitayama With finishes of 9th and 2nd in two of the last three European Tour events, Kitayama was a player in very good form before the three-week break. In terms of tee-to-green play, there are few to match him on the European Tour and none playing this week. He ranks 12th on the European Tour in strokes gained: tee to green, 16th in strokes gained: approach the green and 6th in strokes gained: around the green. While he hasn’t played this course previously, the fact that the conditions will be rather different means that this should not be a particular problem given his recent form. Justin Harding If anyone can match Kitayama’s form in recent Tour events it is Harding. He followed up victory in the Kenya Open with a top-15 finish in the Kenya Savannah Classic, though that does not tell the full story: he was three shots clear after 54 holes and traded at odds-on. While he tends to score better than his tee-to-green stats suggest, his game is a good fit for this course and ranks inside the top-15 for par-4 scoring on the European Tour. As with Kitayama, his lack of course history is easily compensated by his recent form. Joost Luiten If course form does count for anything, Luiten should be the main contender for this title. His six appearances at Diamond CC have yielded finishes of 3rd-1st-3rd-6th-7th-18th. As a player who ranks in the top-25 for greens in regulation and 12th for par-4 scoring, this is clearly a course that suits his game particularly well. With a 7th place finish in the last European Tour event, he also has the form to warrant a short price this week. Tips 0-3; -6.00pts 1pt e.w. Kurt Kitayama 18/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 15th 1pt e.w. Justin Harding 16/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) mc 1pt e.w. Joost Luiten 22/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, BetFred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 12th
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