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The European Tour’s flagship event takes centre stage after the drama of the last week, from the obscene amounts of money on offer at East Lake to the pure drama (and no prize money) of the Solheim Cup. This is the third of four Rolex Series events on the European Tour so there is plenty of prize money on offer, but in a week without a PGA Tour event and the announcement of both Ryder Cup teams, there should be plenty of drama this week as well. With the compression of the Majors into a three-month period in 2019, this event was moved from May to a new annual slot in mid-September after the PGA Tour’s Tour Championship. The result has been a much better field with many of Europe’s leading players returning after plying their trade on the PGA Tour. They will play on the West course at Wentworth which has hosted this event since 1984. At 7,284 yards, the course is not long by Tour Standards, but this is a tree-lined heathland course which puts rather more emphasis on position off the tee rather than power. A look back at driving stats over the years here does not point to any clear advantage of power or accuracy off the tee. One note of caution re: course history, though. As well as the 2019 move from Spring to Autumn, which typically results in courses playing shorter as the ground is harder, there have been major renovations to the course in 2009 and more notably after the 2016 BMW PGA Championship which restored the course more in line with the original Harry Colt approach and the greens were replaced with pure bentgrass and are much better as a result. That said, there is still enough course history with the above caveats to identify some angles which should be profitable this week. Angles to consider: 1. Course form matters at Wentworth Despite the large-scale changes to the course in the last decade, there is always a familiarity to the leaderboard at Wentworth. Hatton won last year to follow up a 7th place finish four years previously; Willett won the previous year to follow up a 3rd place finish three years beforehand; Molinari won in 2018 to follow up a 2nd place finish the previous year; Noren won in 2017 to follow up an 8th place finish two years beforehand; Wood won in 2016 to follow up a 4th place finish the previous year; and so on. With the exception of An, who won on his debut in 2015, you need to go back to Scott Drummond in 2004 to find a winner here who hadn’t already secured a top-10 finish at Wentworth.. 2. This a second-shot course When Willett won in 2019, ranking second for greens in regulation that week, he became the ninth winner in 14 years to rank inside the top-four for that stat. As pointed out above, though, long-term trends can be misleading because of the date and course changes. Given that Hatton ranked 22nd in greens in regulation last year, that may have been enough to shelve this angle, but runner-up Perez ranked 2nd in greens in regulation and, more importantly, Hatton ranked 1st in strokes gained: tee-to-green last year. That is enough to retain this as an angle, though strokes gained: tee-to-green and strokes gained: approach the green should be considered just as much as the traditional greens in regulation measure. 3. Scrambling will also be important Last year, Hatton ranked 1st in scrambling and 2nd in strokes gained: around the green. In 2019, Willett ranked only 8th in scrambling, but it was notable that the top-3 in scrambling all finished in the top-6 on the leaderboard. Molinari won the event in 2018 and ranked 1st for scrambling, while Noren won in 2017 and ranked 4th in scrambling. This isn’t a long course, but the new sub-air system to keep the greens firm and dry, as well as the switch to Autumn from Spring, have made the short game more important around this challenging course. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected. Billy Horschel Horschel took advantage of the change of event schedule to compete in this event in 2019 and finished 4th after a slow start. On that occasion, he hadn’t reached the Tour Championship unlike this year when he finished 9th last week. That makes him a player in very good form and if there is no fatigue from competing at East Lake, he looks a strong contender in this field. Lee Westwood Westwood didn’t reach the Tour Championship having bowed out at the BMW Championship the previous week. His form has dipped this year as he has concentrated on the PGA Tour, but he was still the European Tour #1 last season and warrants attention when on this Tour. Twice a runner-up in this event as well as a winner of the HSBC World Match Play Championship on this course. Bernd Wiesberger Understandably didn’t feature last week after he failed to par the final hole and win the European Masters two weeks ago. His form is still good and he did win the Made in Himmerland event in May. His game profile is also good for this course: he ranks inside the top-10 for strokes gained: tee-to-green, strokes gained: approach the green, greens in regulation and scrambling on the European Tour. Price has drifted high enough to warrant attention despite the extra pressure of the Ryder Cup selection issue this week. Garrick Higgo Higgo is another whose form has dipped recently on the PGA Tour, but that was after he won the Palmetto Championship in June, having been on a run of finishing 4th-1st-8th-1st in four consecutive European Tour events in April-May. Still leads the European Tour in the putting stats and finished in the top-30 on his debut here last year. Victor Perez Faded on Sunday after being well-placed in the Italian Open. It did confirm an improvement in his form, particularly his tee-to-green play and augurs well as he returns to a course on which he finished 2nd last year. Ranked 2nd in greens in regulation, 5th in strokes gained: tee to green and 17th in scrambling on the European Tour, this is a course that suits. Rafa Cabrera Bello Another who hasn’t prospered on the PGA Tour with just a few top-25 finishes and then finished 20th in the Korn Ferry Tour Championship last week. A very different prospect on the European Tour and particularly at Wentworth where has finished 8th and 6th in his last two visits. Robert Macintyre A much shorter trip across the Atlantic as he failed to make a cut in either of the Korn Ferry Tour events. He had previously been playing well on the European Tour, won the Cyprus Open ten months ago and has the game to score well on this course: he ranks inside the top-5 for strokes gained: tee-to-green and greens in regulation as well as ranking 1st in scrambling on the European Tour. Martin Kaymer Doesn’t have a great short game, but is very solid tee-to-green otherwise, ranking 4th on the Europea Tour in that strokes gained category. Finished in the top-10 here last year and has two top-3 finishes in his last ten European Tour starts. Dean Burmester A player in very good form and even though he couldn’t hold onto the 36-hole lead two weeks ago, he did win the Tenerife Open in May. Has two top-15 finishes in four previous visits to Wentworth and has good all-around game which will help on this course. Mathias Schwab Another who tried to earn his PGA Tour Card via the Korn Ferry Tour Final and was successful at the first attempt, finishing 4th in the Boise Open. Followed that up with a top-10 finish last week so has maintained the very good form that he has shown since March. Another player with a profile that should fair well on this course: he ranks 7th for strokes gained: approach the green, 12th for greens in regulation and 23rd for strokes gained: around the green. Guido Migliozzi Has been in great form, exemplified by three runners-up finishes in his last 15 starts and a top-5 ranking for scoring average on the European Tour. Ranks highly for strokes gained: tee-to-green and greens in regulation, so is backed to fare well this week despite his poor previous performances at Wentworth. Masahiro Kawamura Ranking 13th in scoring average on the European Tour and with three top-5 finishes in his last six starts. Kawamura is worthy of attention. He fits the course profile brief with a top-20 ranking for strokes gained: tee-to-green and finished in the top-20 here last year. Tips 1-11; +2.90pts 0.25pts e.w. Billy Horschel 28/1 (William Hill 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 1st 0.25pts e.w. Lee Westwood 33/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10) 71st 0.25pts e.w. Bernd Wiesberger 40/1 (Skybet, William Hill, 888sport, Betfred, Betway 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 20th 0.25pts e.w. Garrick Higgo 66/1 (Skybet, William Hill, Betfred, Betway 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) mc 0.25pts e.w. Victor Perez 55/1 (Bet365, VBet 1/4 1-2-3-4-5-6) 49th 0.25pts e.w. Rafa Cabrera Bello 110/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5-6) 67th 0.25pts e.w. Robert Macintyre 50/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5-6) mc 0.25pts e.w. Martin Kaymer 80/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5-6) 25th 0.25pts e.w. Dean Burmester 66/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10) 30th 0.25pts e.w. Mathias Schwab 55/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10) 12th 0.25pts e.w. Guido Migliozzi 55/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5-6) mc 0.25pts e.w. Masahiro Kawamura 80/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5-6) 17th
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