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As was the case two years ago, this event followed the third Major Championship of the season, the last one to be played on American soil, and this begins the truly 'European' stage of the European Tour. After travelling around three different continents in the first half of 2021, the European Tour stays in Europe for four months until the Trophee Hassan II in late October. The increase in field quality is notable with this new phase of the season with Viktor Hovland, Louis Oosthuizen and Sergio Garcia well ahead at the top of the market. Oosthuizen remains in the field despite the heartbreak of yet another runner-up finish in a Major Championship, but there are always some who decide not to fly to Germany after the U.S. Open. Rafael Cabrera Bello and Lucas Herbert have withdrawn from this event to play in the Travelers Championship while recent winner, Richard Bland, has also understandably withdrawn after being one of the 36-hole leaders last week. It has been quite a few weeks for him! Last year's two-time winner, George Coetzee, is another to withdraw from this event after competing at Torrey Pines last week. This week's field will complete at Golfclub Muchen Eichenried which staged this event every year between 1997 and 2011, but thereafter has staged this event on an alternating basis with Golfclub Gut Larchenhof. That rather limits the trends that can be derived from the stats, but we are well-accustomed to having a two-year gap between this year's event and its previous iteration. Another complicating factor is that there were changes to all 18 greens before the 2019 event with the Bentgrass variant mixed with poa annua, more familiar in California, to create better putting surfaces. The rest of the parkland course remains largely the same. The fairways are tree-lined, but generous in width, so there has never been any dominance of power or accuracy, or vice-versa, on this course. Water features on ten holes and this is generally seen as a low-scoring venue. Not on the same scale of the resort venues that has been used over the past year, but still low-scoring for a Championship course. The following are offered as angles to identify players who should contend this week Angles to consider: 1. Greens in regulation is the key stat this week My previews for events held at low-scoring venues, particularly the resort courses over the past year, have always pointed to this angle rather than putting stats or birdie average. Those well-used arguments will not be repeated here. It is enough to point to the stats at past events here on this low-scoring venue. Pavan may have been a surprise 100/1 winner, but he ranked 2nd that week in greens in regulation, while 2nd-placed Matthew Fitzpatrick ranked 1st in that category for the week. The winner in 2017, Andres Romero, wasn’t a member of the European Tour and so there are no stats available for him that week, but second-placed Henrik Stenson led the field in greens in regulation. Stenson also finished 2nd in 2015 and was ranked 2nd in greens in regulation that week as well. In 2013, Ernie Els won the event and led the field in greens in regulation, while in 2011, Pablo Larrazabal won the event and ranked 2nd that week in greens in regulation (top-ranked Joost Luiten finished 3rd). 2. History matters in Germany It is not particularly that courses in Germany are unique within the European Tour, but that the events in this country take place during the main summer phase of the Tour schedule. There is a consistency to the Tour at this stage and certain types of player play well at this time. This angle is so strong that you need to go back to John Daly in 2001 to find a winner here who hadn’t already finished 3rd or better in Germany beforehand. Six of the thirteen players who have won on this course since John Daly had already won a European Tour title in Germany. Pavan hadn't won a previous European Tour title in Germany, but he had a Challenge Tour in Germany in 2013. 3. Bogey avoidance can be just as important on low-scoring courses This is the distinction between resort courses and Championship courses, the course may provide low scoring for most, but it will still present some challenges to Tour players. In 2019, Pavan didn't have the highest number of birdies or eagles, but he did have the lowest number of dropped shots (4). Runner-up Richard Bland held that honour in 2017 with six shots, while Andres Romero won the event having dropped seven shots. The winner in 2015, Pablo Larrazabal, was rather more erratic, but runner-up Henrik Stenson backed up this angle with dropped shots on a tournament-best four holes. This same had occured in 2013 with Ernie Els as a winner, and so on. A good short game and/or score-saving skills are necessary on this course. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players have been selected. As part of an ongoing review of betting strategies, that shortlist has been extended for this week, so the stakes are smaller on each player. In line with all tips on this site, the total exposure on a golf tournament is never more than 6pts, equivalent to 6% of the season-starting bankroll. Kurt Kitayama Top-25 on this course two years ago and in the European Open in Hamburg three weeks ago, Kitayama is good fit for this course, ranking 5th in strokes gained: tee-to-green and 1st in strokes gained: around the green on the European Tour. Andy Sullivan It’s a similar case with Sullivan who has a top-10 finish in this event (2018) and ranks in the top-25 in greens in regulation on the European Tour. A four-time winner on the European Tour, including the English Championship last year. John Catlin Catlin has won three times since last year and was 5th last time out on the European Tour. As with the previous two selections, his Tour stats suggest that his game is well suited to scoring well on this course: he ranks 13th in strokes gained: tee-to-green, 20th in strokes gained: approach the green and 15th in strokes gained: around the green. Padraig Harrington Harrington hasn’t played in enough Tour events to feature in the European Tour stats categories, but he still ranks inside the top-25 for bogey avoidance, a testimony to his renowned short game. He has recorded two victories and seven runners-up finishes in Germany and while those were when he was at his peak, he did finish 4th in the PGA Championship last month. Alexander Bjork Bjorn is another with very good bogey avoidance stats, ranking 8th on the European Tour in that category. Given his all-round game – 10th in strokes gained: approach the green and 3rd in strokes gained: putting – it is little wonder that he is so consistent. Andrew Johnston Johnston’s consistency can be measured in terms of his top-10 ranking for stroke average on the European Tour. That is largely borne out of bogey avoidance, though he can shoot low scores as he did when finishing 4th last month in the Canary Islands Championship. Joachim B. Hansen Hansen is another player in good form, finishing 6th in the Scandinavian Mixed, his third top-10 of the season. He finished in the top-20 on this course two years ago and he is a better player now, as evidenced by his World Ranking. Masahiro Kawamura And another player in good form. Kawamura finished 7th in the Scandinavian Mixed to follow finishes of 29th and 17th in the previous two weeks. Justin Harding Form may be a little more of a concern with Harding, but he was so impressive when winning the Kenya Open in March and was very consistent thereafter until the British Masters a month ago. He ranks highly in terms of scoring average on the European Tour (19th) and that is borne of a strong short game as ranks inside the top-30 for bogey avoidance, strokes gained: around the green and scrambling. Takumi Kanaya Kanaya played in two European Tour events in the Middle East, finishing inside the top-10 in the Dubai Desert Classic in January. Since then, he has won the Token Homemate Cup on the Japan Tour, his third victory in his seven Japan Tour events, so he certainly has the ability to win this week’s company. Jazz Janewattanond Janewattanond is a more regular player on the European Tour, with his last three events on this Tour including a 2nd place finish in the Kenya Savannah Classic and an 11th place finish in the British Masters. He ranks inside the top-25 for greens in regulation on the European Tour which should be a good fit for this course. Tips 2-9; -4.04pts 0.25pts e.w. Kurt Kitayama 45/1 (Unibet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6) 0.25pts e.w. Andy Sullivan 45/1 (Bet365, Sporting Index 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 5th 0.25pts e.w. John Catlin 70/1 (Bet365, Sporting Index 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) mc 0.25pts e.w. Padraig Harrington 66/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) mc 0.25pts e.w. Alexander Bjork 45/1 (Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) mc 0.25pts e.w. Andrew Johnston 60/1 (Skybet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 14th 0.25pts e.w. Joachim B. Hansen 55/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) mc 0.25pts e.w. Masahiro Kawamura 66/1 (Skybet, Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 29th 0.25pts e.w. Justin Harding 66/1 (Skybet, Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 5th 0.25pts e.w. Takumi Kanaya 66/1 (Skybet, Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 17th 0.25pts e.w. Jazz Janewattanond 90/1 (Unibet, BetFred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6) 37th
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