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Apart from the World War years, last year was the first time since 1871 not to feature an Open Championship. With the R&A confirming last month that 32,000 people attend each day, this should be worth the wait. This will be final Major of the year and it is fitting to save the oldest to last. Of course, there have been withdrawals with players receiving positive covid tests or being in close proximity to someone testing positive or simply concerns over the travel restrictions, but this is still an extremely strong field. The PGA and European Tour have scheduled this season much better as well. When the PGA Tour schedule was changed in 2019, the top players would head to Memphis the week after the Open for a WGC event and then prepare for a shorted Playoff Series two weeks later, while the European Tour would take a break for three weeks and return in earnest in September, October and November. There appeared to be a lack of co-ordination between the two Tours. This year, even though there is the added event of the Olympics to consider, there is a one-week gap before that event and then the WGC event is held the week after. The European Tour continues after this week without any break. This week’s venue, Royal St George’s Golf Club, has hosted the Open fifteen times previously. It was returned to the Open rotation in 1981 after a 32-year wait when Bill Rogers won. Subsequent Opens held here have been won by Sandy Lyle (1985), Greg Norman (1993), Ben Curtis (2003) and Darren Clarke (2011). It is the only English course on the Open rotation outside the North-West coastline (Royal Birkdale, Royal Lytham & St Annes, Royal Liverpool) since Prince’s Golf Club, immediately adjacent to Royal St. George’s, hosted the 1932 Open Championship. Royal St George’s is a typical, tough links course. It is often described as ‘quirky’, which is normally a polite way of saying that you don’t like something. Players have reported that the ‘(un)lucky bounces’ associated with links golf are more pronounced at Royal St George’s than at other courses on the Open rotation, but patience is always key on links courses. This is not target golf on which you only need to hit to precise yardages. Understanding and incorporating the course into shot-making is at the heart of successful links golf. And for all that Curtis and Clarke were unfancied winners (according to the odds), the top-10 was full of leading players (in terms of World Rankings) in both years, as well as in 1993 when the top-3 were ranked 4th, 1st and 2nd in the World Rankings at the start of the week. The weather is forecast to be calm with a constant 12-15mph NNE breeze throughout the week. It is the same as in the practice rounds so there should be no surprises this week. Links conditions can be much more challenging, particularly if the weather turns during the day, but that is not within the current forecast so there doesn’t appear to be any particular advantage re: tee-times for Thursday and Friday. The following are offered as angles to identify players who should contend this week. Angle to consider: 1. Experience matters in the Open Experience can be measured in many ways. In terms of course experience, only one player (Ben Curtis, 2003) has won this event on his debut. Of the 16 Open Championships since Curtis’ win, only three had competed in less than six previous Opens prior to their win: Jordan Spieth, four Opens prior to 2017 win; Louis Oosthuizen, three Opens prior to 2010 win; Todd Hamilton, two Opens prior to 2004 win. And experience can be measured in terms of age. Nine of the last twelve Open winners have been 35 years old and above. Given that so many Open Champions have competed in so many previous Opens, it is easy to find the common angle that the winner had a previous top-10 finish in the event. But this is over-stated. Lowry won in 2019 with a previous top-10 finish in the event, but he had missed the previous four cuts in the event; Molinari won in 2018 with a previous top-10 finish, but no others in ten Open Championships; Spieth had a previous top-10 finish in the event, but no other top-25 finish in four Open Championships. Other Open Champions may be more supportive of this angle, but the key issue is experience and that is why a top-10 finish can be found in a Open Champions’ history which is almost always very erratic in this event. 2. PGA Tour players continue to dominate this event It is easy to look back at the recent history of this event and assume that the European Tour is becoming more competitive with the PGA Tour in this event. Such supportive European Open Champions are Lowry (2019), Molinari (2018), Stenson (2016), McIlroy (2014), and Clarke (2011). But with the exception of Clarke, they were all full-time on the PGA Tour. When the last Open Championship saw two Europeans finish first and second (Lowry and Fleetwood), they had both competed in the Irish Open but had previously been full-time on the PGA Tour that year. There were only two European Tour-focused players in the top-10 in 2019: Lee Westwood and Robert Macintyre. In 2018, there was only one (Eddie Pepperell); there were three in 2017 (Hao-Tong Li, Alexander Noren and Matthew Southgate); there were again two in 2016 (Tyrrell Hatton and Andrew Johnston), while there was only one in 2015 (Danny Willett). 3. Greens in regulation is the key stat from previous events here As with most links courses, driving is not a key stat. None of the top-3 in 2003 or 2011 ranked inside the top-10 for driving accuracy and while there were longer hitters featured in the top-3 (Vijay Singh, 2003; Dustin Johnson, 2011), this is not reflected in the rest of the top-20. In terms of scrambling, the evidence is mixed. It was important in 2003 (scrambling ranks of 4th, 1st and 66th for the top-3), while it was not important in 2011 (scrambling ranks of 61st, 41st, 17th for the top-3). However, this is not the same with greens in regulation. The top-3 in 2003 ranked 16th, 1st and 3rd for this stat, while the top-3 in 2011 ranked 2nd, 6th, and 3rd for this stat. From a golfing perspective, this makes sense. Links golf is all about ball control, whether that is in relation to the sea winds that prevail or the uneven lies. The best metric for this from the other 40-plus courses used on Tour each year is greens in regulation. Links golf is unique, but strong greens in regulation stats are normally associated with high finishes. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected. Patrick Reed Finished in the top-10 in the last Open Championship and has two other top-20 finishes in his six previous attempts. Has been in solid rather than spectacular form recently, but he is a frequent traveller to the U.K. to play on the European Tour and he is already a Major Champion. Louis Oosthuizen Oosthuizen is another Major Champion having won this event at St Andrews in 2010. Has been in great form recently with three runners-up finishes in his last five PGA Tour events, including both the PGA Championship in May and the U.S. Open last month. Overdue a win.
Tony Finau Another player who is overdue a win, but the master of a ‘back door top-10 finish’. He achieved two of those in the three Majors this year and has achieved a top-10 in each of the last two Open Championships. In fact, he has been very consistent in this event with top-30 finishes in all four attempts. Ryan Palmer Hadn’t shown much form since April until his 4th place finish at the Scottish Open last week. He ranked 3rd in greens in regulation and 4th in scrambling last week to evidence the key elements of the game for a links course. That should put him in good stead for this week to secure, at least, his fourth top-30 finish in six attempts in this event. Daniel Berger Berger has one top-30 finish from three attempts in this event and, worryingly, played in the John Deere Classic last week. To play in the PGA Tour event the week before the Open Championship may not augur well, but there some notable exceptions: Molinari won in 2018 and Johnson won in 2015 having finished in the top-3 in the John Deere Classic the week before. Berger is in good form, finishing 7th in the U.S. Open last month, and ranks inside the top-15 for both greens in regulation and strokes gained: approach-the-green on the PGA Tour. Abraham Ancer Ancer is another whose game should fit this type of golf, ranking inside the top-20 for greens in regulation on the PGA Tour. He is the only one of the selections not to have won on the PGA Tour, but he is in great form with top-15 finishes in five of his last six PGA Tour starts and he is a regular traveller to compete on the European Tour. Sergio Garcia After so many near misses, this would be truly memorable Open Championship if Garcia won his second Major this week. His form is much improved with top-20 finishes in each of his last three starts, including the U.S. Open, and he does have the ideal game for this type of course. Harris English With two wins on the PGA Tour in 2021 and a string of high finishes, such as 3rd place in last month’s U.S. Open, it is difficult to see why the World #12 is an ‘under-the-radar’ player this week. He does have a top-15 finish in this event. Jason Kokrak Kokrak is another multiple-winner on the PGA Tour this season, winning the CJ Cup in October and the Charles Schwab Challenge in May. He has maintained that form – 12th in the Rocket Mortgage Classic two weeks ago – and ranks inside the top-30 for greens in regulation on the PGA Tour. Kevin Kisner Another multiple-winner on the PGA Tour in very good form. Kisner has won three times on the PGA Tour, including a WGC event, and has finished 5th and 8th in his last two PGA Tour events. He led for three rounds around Carnoustie in 2018 before finishing 2nd to Molinari so warrants attention this week. Brian Harman At age 35 and with only one PGA Tour win (2017 Wells Fargo Championship), Harman is one of the least inexperienced selections, but he has been in excellent form this year with top-20 finishes in eight of his last ten starts. Two of these were Majors, so worth a punt on securing at least a place finish with someone so consistent.
Jason Day A 12-time winner on the PGA Tour including one Major (2015 PGA Championship). Day has been extremely consistent in this event, coming closest to winning in 2015 when he started the final round in the lead before missing out on the playoff by a single shot. Plagued by injury worries over the last few years, but has finished in the top-15 in his last two PGA Tour starts. Could be a strong contender if healthy. Tips 2-10; -1.25pts 0.25pts e.w. Patrick Reed 33/1 (Skybet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11) mc 0.25pts e.w. Louis Oosthuizen 35/1 (William Hill 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9) 3rd 0.25pts e.w. Tony Finau 45/1 (Paddy Power, Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12) 15th 0.25pts e.w. Ryan Palmer 100/1 (Paddy Power, Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12) mc 0.25pts e.w. Daniel Berger 50/1 (Paddy Power 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12) 8th 0.25pts e.w. Abraham Ancer 66/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12) 59th 0.25pts e.w. Sergio Garcia 55/1 (Skybet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11) 19th 0.25pts e.w. Harris English 66/1 (Skybet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11) 46th 0.25pts e.w. Jason Kokrak 100/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12) 26th 0.25pts e.w. Kevin Kisner 125/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12) 73rd 0.25pts e.w. Brian Harman 125/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12) 19th 0.25pts e.w. Jason Day 80/1 (BetFred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10) mc
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