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The final event of seven in GB and Ireland is the English Open, or rather than Cazoo Classic since it partnered with the European Tour two months ago to sponsor a couple of events. The English Open had been a regular feature on the European Tour between 1988 and 2002 so this is another resurrection in this reconfigured Tour schedule. And it is the same with the venue. The Heritage course at London Golf Club has hosted two events on the European Tour previously: the 2008 and 2009 European Opens, while the International course at this venue hosted the 2014 Volvo World Match Play as well as several events on the European Seniors Tour. This week’s event will be played on the Heritage course which is a Jack Nicklaus design and measures 7,208 yards according to the London Golf Club website and 7,327 yards according to the European Tour website. The lengthening of two par-5s and two long par-4s accounts for the difference, but most importantly, three of the last four holes have been lengthened. With a 225-yard par-3 17th hole included, this looks like a very deliberate attempt to make the closing holes very challenging. Good for putting pressure on the leader(s), but not for creating an exciting finish. Either way, the course is not overly long. In line with most Nicklaus courses, the fairways are generous with the difficulty level rising as the players get closer to the hole. Despite the fescue grass giving this course a links-style look, there is plenty of water with four lakes affecting six of the eighteen holes. Bunkers provide further penalties for errant approach shots and, once these are navigated, the players will face contoured greens. A good test in line with most Nicklaus courses. Given that this course hosted a couple of European Tour events over a decade ago, only two angles are offered to identify players who should contend this week. Angle to consider: 1. Nicklaus courses are second-shot courses While the winning scores in 2008 and 2009 were very different, 268 and 281 respectively, they both identified greens in regulation stats as being far more important than driving distance or driving accuracy. Ross Fisher won in 2018 and ranked 3rd in greens in regulation while the runner-up, Sergio Garcia, ranked 9th in that category. Both are players who always ranked highly in this category. In 2009, Christian Cevaer was a surprise winner while ranking 13th in greens in regulation, while the player who hits the most greens in regulation that week, Steve Webster, finished 2nd. This is far from unusual on Nicklaus-designed courses, so this week should be no different. 2. A good short game will be needed given this course’s defences As described above, the difficulty of the course increases the closer the player is to the hole. That means that good iron play is important (angle #1) and good recovery skills are important when not hitting the green. This was also borne out in 2008/2009. Fisher and Garcia ranked 5th and 8th, respectively, in scrambling in 2008, while Cevaer ranked 2nd in 2009 and the top-ranked player for scrambling that week, Gary Orr, finished alongside Webster in 2nd place. Scrambling (and strokes gained: around the green) stats are therefore expected to be of relevance this week, but given scrambling is a combination of a good short game and good putting, strokes gained: putting is also added to the list of stats that align with angle #2. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected. John Catlin The winner of three European Tour events in the last year is an ideal fit for this course. He leads the Tour in strokes gained: tee-to-green and ranks 16th in strokes gained: around the green. His three wins have come within short three-event bursts of form and given that he finished 7th last time out, this could another of those short bursts of form. Victor Perez Although he has struggled to make cuts on the PGA Tour recently, the Frenchman certainly has the ability to win this event with ease. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, followed that up with two runners-up finishes in the next four months and since the Tour resumption, he has again finished 2nd on the European Tour (BMW PGA Championship), in the top-10 in the Players Championship and 4th in a WGC event. In short, has the ability to make his price look very big given that he hasn’t played in such a weak event for over two years. Vincent Norrman Backing Norrman again. Since turning professional this summer, he has finished in the top-15 in four of five European Tour events and now leads the Tour in strokes gained: off the tee, ranks 2nd in driving distance and 10th in strokes gained: tee to green. Given that very few players have any prior knowledge of this course, his rookie status is again not a problem and his confidence will help keep his momentum going. Callum Hill Two shots clear during the front nine on Sunday, but errors around the turn cost him after looking so good earlier in the week. However, he again showed that he has the complete tee-to-green game and an excellent short game. Worth backing again this week. Rasmus Hojgaard Hojgaard is another who fare well on Nicklaus courses. He ranks 15th in strokes gained: approach and 9th in greens in regulation to show that he is a second-shot player, but his high ranking for strokes gained: total (21st) shows that he has strength across all areas of the game. Had finishes of 2nd-6th-3rd-1st in England in the UK Swing last year and showed enough form at the BMW International Open to indicate that he may be close to reaching that form again. Kalle Samooja Another player who should fit this course profile very well. He ranks 20th in strokes gained: approach and 15th in strokes gained: putting to meet both angles, but given that he ranks 12th overall in strokes gained: total, he clearly has the overall game to contend on a regular basis. He has twice lost out in playoffs for European Tour titles, but he has shown that he can win on the Challenge Tour. Wil Besseling Had the worst of the draw last week, but still made the cut and shot 66-68 over the weekend to finish in the top-30. Given that he had recorded four top-20 finishes in his previous seven starts, he has clearly maintained his form and with a good tee-to-green game (he ranks 27th in greens in regulation on the European Tour), he should fare well this week. Jamie Donaldson Donaldson is one of only a few players this week to have competed on this course – he finished 10th here in 2008 and 32nd in 2009. He has the tee-to-green game that should suit this course and with three top-5 finishes since November, he is still competitive at this level. Thorbjorn Olesen Olesen is another whose game matches this week’s angles. In terms of angle #1, he ranks 23rd in greens in regulation on the European Tour, while in terms of angle #2, he ranks 13th in strokes gained: putting. Given that he ranks 17th in scoring average on the European Tour, the five-time winner on this Tour has shown that he is still very competitive at this level, albeit with a lighter schedule this year. While his form hasn’t been as convincing since late Spring, his odds more than compensate. Joachim B. Hansen Won the Joburg Open in November and has had three top-10 finishes in the last five months. Has struggled to transfer the run of very high finishes that he achieved on the Challenge Tour onto the main Tour, but these events show that he regularly has good weeks on the European Tour surrounded by weeks of indifferent play or missed cuts. Worth a punt this week on that basis. Callum Shinkwin Four sub-70s rounds saw the big-hitting Shinkwin finish 16th last week in what looked to be a very steady week for a usually unpredictable player. Finished 4th in the Cazoo Open last month, so clearly has the form to be a contender this week, though he, like Hansen above, is a player who can blow cold many times before being very hot. Sami Valimaki Valimaki was playing on the Pro Golf Tour only two years ago (winning four titles that season) and showed in 2020 that he was more than comfortable jumping up two levels to the European Tour – he won the Oman Open in March just before the lockdown and then secured five top-10 finishes from August to December last year. Has struggled to repeat that form this year, but on the basis of ability and promise, he is worthy of consideration after a better performance at the Olympics. Tips 4-8; +12.78pts 0.25pts e.w. John Catlin 30/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 51st 0.25pts e.w. Victor Perez 33/1 (Bet365 1/5 1-2-3-4-5) 13th 0.25pts e.w. Vincent Norrman 30/1 (Sporting Index 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) mc 0.25pts e.w. Callum Hill 33/1 (Unibet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6) 1st 0.25pts e.w. Rasmus Hojgaard 40/1 (Mansion Bet, 10Bet, Sport Nation, Redzone 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 3rd 0.25pts e.w. Kalle Samooja 60/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 8th 0.25pts e.w. Wil Besseling 45/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 29th 0.25pts e.w. Jamie Donaldson 66/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 3rd 0.25pts e.w. Thorbjorn Olesen 50/1 (Mansion Bet, 10Bet, Sport Nation, Redzone 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) mc 0.25pts e.w. Joachim B. Hansen 50/1 (Bet365, VBet 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 29th 0.25pts e.w. Callum Shinkwin 55/1 (Bet365, Sporting Index 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 3rd 0.25pts e.w. Sami Valimaki 60/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 44th
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