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It’s never easy to follow a Major Championship, but the retention of the Wales Open, albeit with a title sponsor, adds a feeling of familiarity to the European Tour at a point in the schedule when it normally struggles to retain its best players who head back to the States to compete in a WGC event and the Playoffs. This is the fourth event in a run of seven held in GB and Ireland and there are Ryder Cup points on offer. The new title sponsor and association with Gareth Bale is not enough to make this a large event in terms of purse or Race to Dubai points and that is felt within the quality of the field, but a return to former Ryder Cup course is a welcome development after the resort courses used in the past year. The Twenty Ten course at the Celtic Manor Resort hosted back-to-back events last year – the Celtic Classic and the Wales Open. Apart from the 2010 Ryder Cup, the course hosted the Wales Open between 2008 and 2014, at which point the event was removed from the Tour schedule until last year. Two other courses at Celtic Manor have hosted this event: the Wentwood Hills course between 2000 and 2004 and the Roman Road course between 2005 and 2007. That association with this event and this venue is relevant as this week’s course is formed of the original Robert Trent Jones II-designed Wentworth Hills course and nine new holes designed by Ross McMurray. That gives the course a rather disjointed feel with a links feel at the start, lakes being a feature in the middle section and a challenging finish. A driveable par-4 15th hole does appear to pander more to the matchplay format of the Ryder Cup, though. The course appeared to play markedly more difficult after the 2008 Wales Open, presumably as preparations for the 2010 Ryder Cup increased. Overall though, the fairways are generous, but the water provides penalties for the overly wayward. Much will depend on the tees that are used this week as there are many different possibilities for most holes. That was evident last year when the winning score was ten shots higher the following week for the Wales Open than for the Celtic Classic. The following are offered as angles to identify players who should contend this week. Angle to consider: 1. Course experience should matter While this course was first used in 2008 on Tour, the fact that it was dropped after the 2014 Wales Open means that most players this week will only have last year’s course experience, if any. Like all Ryder Cup courses, this is a challenging course that rewards risk-taking and thus prior knowledge of the risks worth taking. While last year’s winner, Romain Langasque, was making his course debut, 17 of 20 players at the top of the leaderboard had competed previously on this course; mostly the week before. Six of the top-10 had finished in the top-15 the previous week and two of those that didn’t had competed on this course at least four times previously. 2. Greens in regulation is a key stat Beyond the driver, there are not really any particular clubs that will be particularly important, at least from the stats of the 2008-2014 Wales Opens. This was a venue for the Ryder Cup and so is a strong test of the whole game, while providing a strong risk-reward element that suits more attacking players. That normally translates into good GIR stats and the last seven winners here have ranked 1st-2nd-7th-26th-4th-12th-13th in greens in regulation that week. 3. Good scores are built on the par-4s This is an unusual course in that there are five par-3s, four par-5s and only nine par-4s. That would normally indicate that performance on par-3s would be more important than on a ‘typical’ Tour course, but that is not borne out by the stats. None of the top-5 in either the Celtic Classic or the Wales Open last year ranked inside the top-10 for par-3 scoring. The best that anyone in the top-5 ranked for par-5 scoring across those two events was 5th. By contrast, the winner in both events was ranked 1st for par-4 scoring. This was also the case in the previous event played here – the 2014 Wales Open – and in six of the nine Tour events played here. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected. Connor Syme If course experience matters, Syme should be a very strong contender. He led after 54 holes of the Celtic Classic (finishing 3rd) and led after rounds 1, 2, and 3 of the Wales Open (finishing 8th). Therein lies the reason why his price isn’t shorter, but he has proven to be very consistent. Ranking inside the top-15 for par-4 scoring on the European Tour, he should feature again this year. John Catlin Catlin is another who featured strongly last year, finishing 6th in the Celtic Classic. He also has the stats to suggest that he is well-suited this course, ranking inside the top-25 for both strokes gained: approach the green and strokes gained: tee-to-green. A winner of three European Tour titles in the last ten months.
Wil Besseling Besseling finished 11th in the Celtic Classic last year when ranking 2nd in greens in regulation for the week. He comes into the event on the back of three top-20 finishes in his last five starts, which is strong form for this field. Calum Hill Hill is another with a strong showing on this course last year, recording a top-10 finish in the Wales Open. Ranked 3rd in scoring average on the European Tour, he is one of the most consistent players and, like Syme, is overdue a win from the amount of times that he has been in contention on this Tour. Dale Whitnell Whitnell is another player who has become very consistent at this level, ranking inside the top-20 for scoring average on the European Tour. That is borne out of strong approach play – he ranks inside the top-20 for strokes gained: approach the green – and is another who puts himself into contention on a regular basis. Josh Geary Geary is making his course debut, but has shown enough form recently to suggest that he can be a strong contender this week. He has finished 2nd and 11th in the last two weeks on the Challenge Tour, having previously finished 29th in the BMW International Open last month and 6th in the Made in Himmerland the previous month on the European Tour. Vincent Norrman Graduated from Florida State University this year and then competed in the Scandinavian Mixed (finished 14th), turned professional and finished 5th in the BMW International Open (in which he led the field in strokes gained: tee-to-green) and then finished 61st in the Irish Open. Has made quite an impact already this summer. Masahiro Kawamura Competed in the Wales Open last year (finished 37th) and has been in a good run of form with six top-30 finishes in seven events across May and June. Wade Ormsby Experienced player who competed on this course three times between 2009 and 2014, making the cut every time. A top-20 finish in the Made in Himmerland was repeated with another in the Scottish Open when he ranked inside the top-10 for strokes gained: tee-to-green and strokes gained: approach the green. Sebastian Heisele Finished inside the top-15 in both events here last year so worth a look. Form is patchy, but includes a top-10 finish in May (Canary Islands Championship) and he closed with a 66 at the Scottish Open last time out. Steven Brown Played in the Celtic Classic last year and finished 31st. Has shown signs of strong form recently: led the field in greens in regulation at the Made in Himmerland, inside the top-3 for each of the first two rounds of the Scandinavian Mixed, and inside the top-20 for each of the first three rounds of the Irish Open. Ross Fisher Another experienced player who has competed in all nine previous Tour events on this course and recorded two top-10 finishes. He finished 8th in the Made in Himmerland and 15th in the Scottish Open, so his form is good and his game is built around strong greens in regulation stats. Tips 1-22; -3.50pts 0.25pts e.w. Connor Syme 35/1 (Sporting Index 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 18th 0.25pts e.w. John Catlin 40/1 (Bet365, Sporting Index 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 32nd 0.25pts e.w. Wil Besseling 40/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 18th 0.25pts e.w. Calum Hill 33/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 62nd 0.25pts e.w. Dale Whitnell 60/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) mc 0.25pts e.w. Josh Geary 66/1 (Unibet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6) mc 0.25pts e.w. Vincent Norrman 45/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 10th 0.25pts e.w. Masahiro Kawamura 45/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 5th 0.25pts e.w. Wade Ormsby 50/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 10th 0.25pts e.w. Sebastian Heisele 95/1 (Sporting Index 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) mc 0.25pts e.w. Steven Brown 125/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 47th 0.25pts e.w. Ross Fisher 55/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) mc
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