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For the first time since June, the European Tour moves to the continent as it starts a three-week trek around the Czech Republic, Switzerland and Italy before returning to England for the BMA PGA Championship in September. After which, the Ryder Cup team will be announced and so there is both increasing anticipation and purses as we near the finishing line for Ryder Cup qualification. ‘Increasing purses’ is apt as this week marks the (joint) low point on the European Tour, as it was in 2019 when this event was last played. None of the Ryder Cup hopefuls are playing this week, though some will compete in Switzerland next week, and the only association with the Ryder Cup this week is the entry of the European team captain, Padraig Harrington, in the field. In short, this is a very weak field as evidenced by Rory Sabbatini’s invitation to play in the event being headline news. They will compete at the Albastross Golf Resort, outside Prague, which has hosted this event since its inception in 2014. And it has all the features of a resort course: a parkland course with up to five different tees on each hole, containing generous fairways, trees that are comfortably away from the fairways and large greens. At 7,468 yards in length, it appears long, but it is 400m above sea level which negates some of that length. Given the range of tees available, it may play well below that yardage. There is water on ten holes with three lakes (and new trees) added before the 2016 event, but scoring has remained low with winning scores ranging from 13-under (2017) to 22-under-par (2018). In short, we are back to the resort courses that have been used more frequently since the start of the pandemic. The following two angles are offered to identify players who should contend this week. Angle to consider: 1. Course experience in this event The headline-maker for this angle is Thomas Pieters who had played in every Czech Masters until this year and finished mc-1st-2nd-66th-9th-1st across those six events. Those wins here came in 2015 and 2019. Beyond Pieters, though, it is hard to make a course that this is a specialist horses-for-courses venue, but that is because of the purses on offer in this event and the effect that has had on the field each time. Given that the Czech Masters fields are mostly filled with journeymen Tour pros, there will be a lack of consistency of fields from year to year. As a result, the angle is not about previous performances on this course, but experience. With the obvious exception of the inaugural event in 2014, every winner here had previously competed in this event and on this course. This is significant given that, on average across the last five Czech Masters, 40% of the field has not played previously in this event. 2. There will be lots of birdies As described above, this is a resort course and so there will be lots of birdies. In the six Czech Masters to date, the winner ranked 1st-1st-2nd-1st-1st-1st in birdies that week. Again, this is nothing new on resort courses, but the issue is what helps to predict who will score the most birdies this week. In previous previews, it is had been argued that greens in regulation and strokes gained: approach the green stats have been most useful predictors on resort courses. That remains true this week and the winner in the six Czech Masters have ranked 2nd-22nd-1st-2nd-6th-3rd in greens in regulation that week. Likewise, when Thomas Pieters won in 2019, he ranked 1st in strokes gained: approach the green that week. But there is evidence that the short game is a little more important on this course than previous resort courses: those six winners ranked 4th-1st-2nd-2nd-1st-13th in putts per GIR that week. With breezy conditions expected on Thursday and showers on Friday, the short game is expected to be a little more important this week. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected. Hugo Leon Withdrew on Tuesday last week, having previously entered the Cazoo Classic, so hopefully that is just a matter of fatigue after playing in eight of the previous nine weeks. Given that he has finished 2nd (Challenge Tour) – 14th-7th-16th in his last four starts, there are few who can match his form and, notably, he finished in the top-5 here in 2019. Padraig Harrington The Ryder Cup captain is still competitive on the European Tour as he evidenced when finishing in the top-20 at the Scottish Open and he managed a top-5 in the PGA Championship in May. He is not going to be playing consistently at that level, but he was a runner-up here in 2018. Sami Valimaki Valimaki was playing on the Pro Golf Tour only two years ago (winning four titles that season) and showed in 2020 that he was more than comfortable jumping up two levels to the European Tour – he won the Oman Open in March just before the lockdown and then secured five top-10 finishes from August to December last year. Not at his best yet this year, but on the basis of ability and promise, he is worthy of consideration against this field. One of the best putters on Tour if this becomes a putting contest. Henrik Stenson This shows the lack of depth in this field. I wasn’t expecting the Swede to be on my shortlist, but he has showed improved tee-to-green play over the last three months (top-15 in strokes gained: approach the green in the PGA Championship and the Scandinavian Mixed). He is likely to give himself plenty of birdie opportunities and this is a very different field to the ones that he has been competing against. Niall Kearney No such worries about performances with Kearney. He has proven himself to be very consistent on this Tour, ranking 12th in scoring average. That has been borne of a very solid all-around game and, in particular, strong recovery skills (he ranks inside the top-5 for scrambling on the European Tour). Garrick Porteous Porteous is another very solid all-round player, ranking 1st in greens in regulation last week at the Cazoo Classic and 2nd the previous week in the Hero Open. And these are no flukes – he ranks 7th in greens in regulation on the European Tour. He will give himself plenty of opportunities for birdies this week and should record his third top-15 in this event. Niklas Lemke Form is mixed at the moment, but he has recorded five top-10 finishes on the European Tour in the last two years. One of the longer hitters on the European Tour (11th in driving distance) and with good recovery skills (7th in scrambling). A player who has the ability to shoot a very low score on this resort course and was in contention at the early stages last week. Joakim Lagergren Finished in the top-25 in his last visit to Albatross and is another, like so many in this field, who has a lot of missed cuts this year, but can feature on the leaderboard when he does make a cut. If this does become a putting contest, he should fare well as he ranks 4th in strokes gained: putting and 1st in putts per round on the European Tour. Julien Guerrier Finished in the top-10 here when last competing in 2018 and has shown glimpses of that form recently when 4th at the cut in the British Masters and 9th at the cut in the Irish Open. That was against much stronger fields, so may be more confident against this field if in that position again this week. Nino Bertasio Bertasio finished in the top-15 here in 2017 and has since developed into one of the more consistent player on this Tour – he ranks inside the top-25 for scoring average on the European Tour. That is borne of strong iron play – he ranks inside the top-15 for strokes gained: approach the green – so should fare very well if he putts well this week. Josh Geary Another player who misses lots of cuts – he has missed his last four cuts. But he had finished 2nd and 11th before that on the Challenge Tour, the first of those events in the Czech Republic. Has the short game to shoot a low score if this becomes a putting contest – he ranks 8th in putts per GIR, as well as 1st in strokes gained: around the green. Paul Peterson The winner in 2016 who also finished in the top-20 in 2017, so there is certainly good reason to consider Peterson this week, particularly as he has shown promising form recently. He was inside the top-15 at the cut last week, finished inside the top-20 in the ISPS Handa World Invitational three weeks ago, and secured three top-20 finishes on the Challenge Tour last month. Tips 2-10; +2.31pts 0.25pts e.w. Hugo Leon 33/1 (Skybet, BetFred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6) mc 0.25pts e.w. Padraig Harrington 40/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 33rd 0.25pts e.w. Sami Valimaki 45/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) mc 0.25pts e.w. Henrik Stenson 45/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 4th 0.25pts e.w. Niall Kearney 66/1 (Bet365, Sporting Index 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 29th 0.25pts e.w. Garrick Porteous 55/1 (BetVictor, BetFred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6) mc 0.25pts e.w. Niklas Lemke 95/1 (Sporting Index 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 33rd 0.25pts e.w. Joakim Lagergren 100/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 17th 0.25pts e.w. Julien Guerrier 100/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) mc 0.25pts e.w. Nino Bertasio 80/1 (available generally 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 29th 0.25pts e.w. Josh Geary 150/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 58th 0.25pts e.w. Paul Peterson 80/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 4th
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