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The European Tour arrives in Dubai, which is fitting given today’s announcement about the end of the ‘European’ Tour. That it will now become the DP World Tour is just a recognition of how fundamentally the Tour has changed since 2008 when the season last ended at Valderrama. At that point it made sense in terms of climate to start the season in South Africa, Australia, South East Asia and then the Middle East. Now the schedule looks very different and so do the fields in regular European Tour events. Something had to change and this change was inevitable. This week’s field will compete on the Fire course at Jumeirah Golf Estates in Dubai for the second edition of this event. Designed alongside the Earth course (next week’s venue) by Greg Norman, there is a familiarity across the two courses in terms of the terrain and the climate conditions. However, this course is far easier. In terms of handicap rating, the Fire course is 110 whereas the Earth course is 140. That is a big difference. With winds forecast to be very light, particularly in the morning before rising in the afternoon each day, scoring should be again a lot lower than next week. Generally speaking, the fairways are easier to find on this course despite the elevation changes which are most pronounced from the tee. The grass is also longer and wispier around the greens which gives it a more links-style look, but this is certainly not a link course. Wind has normally been one of the key defences of courses in this region, but that will not be the case this week so low-scoring should be common. With just one year’s data at this venue, here are just two angles that can be used this week. Angles to consider: 1. Experience in the Middle East will be important This is a very common angle in European Tour events played in this region. Three players have won 7 of 15 Abu Dhabi Golf Championships. And even though the Dubai Desert Classic hasn’t had quite as many multiple-winners, there is a familiarity to the leaderboard there each year. In terms of this year’s events, Tyrrell Hatton won the Abu Dhabi Championship having previously had three top-3 finishes in the region; Paul Casey won this year’s Dubai Desert Classic, having previously won the Abu Dhabi Championship; Dustin Johnson won the Saudi International having previously won that event in 2019; and Antoine Rozner won the Qatar Masters having won this event last year. Desert golf is a particular form of golf and familiarity with it is normally necessary before winning in this region. 2. Momentum is important at this stage of the season Retaining this angle from last week with Thomas Pieters winning having secured two top-20 finishes in his previous five starts. This is the final event of the season so even though the 2022 DP World Tour season starts in just two weeks’ time, there will be some very tired players (and tipsters) this week so momentum is important. Despite the complication of the previous two events having been in South Africa, last year’s winner had finishes of 10th, 20th and 21st in three of his previous four starts, while runners-up, Andy Sullivan and Matt Wallace, both had top-3 finishes in their previous four starts. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected. Rafa Cabrera Bello
The winner of the Open de Espana last month has an excellent record in the Middle East, having won the 2012 Dubai Desert Classic and earned his seventh top-5 finish in the region at this year’s Abu Dhabi Championship. Victor Perez
Perez is another with a top-5 finish in the region already this year, having finished 4th in the Saudi International, plus he was a runner-up in the Abu Dhabi Championship last year. A top-10 finish last week is his best event for some time so he has the momentum and the local form to deliver on his high promise this week.
Martin Kaymer
A three-time winner of the Abu Dhabi Championship when he was at his best, but he still has six top-20 finishes in this region since the start of last year. It seems a while since his runner-up finish in the BMW International Open, but he looks likely to get himself into contention given the locality of this event.
Antoine Rozner
A strong candidate in terms of the first angle. Not only did he win on this course last year, but he also won the Qatar Masters this year and has four top-10 finishes in just nine European Tour starts in the region. Form is a concern, but he ranked inside the top-10 for greens in regulation last week so his game is in good shape. Marcus Armitage
A decent price for a player who has already won this season (European Open). His game is in good shape – he top-ranked for greens in regulation in the Open de Espana – and had three good rounds last week. John Catlin
Another player who has already won on the European Tour. Catlin won this year’s Austrian Open to add to his Irish Open and Andalucia Masters titles from last year. Finishes of 11th, 20th, and 22nd in his last three starts is enough to show that he has the momentum to feature this week as well. Tom Lewis
Both of Lewis’ Tour wins have come in the Portugal Masters and, having has focused on the PGA Tour this season, this will be his third start on the European Tour since September. He secured two top-3 finishes in the last two years in this region, so should looking for a much improved performance this week.
Robert Macintyre
Like Lewis, Macintyre hasn’t shown a great deal of form since returning to this Tour from the Korn Ferry Tour Finals, but he also has a good record in this region with a top-3 finish in the Dubai Desert Classic earlier this year and he was 4th heading into the final round here last year. Jordan Smith Smith has won previously in this region, albeit on the Challenge Tour (2016 Ras Al Khaimah Golf Challenge), but he also has ten top-25 finishes on the European Tour in this region. His form is also good with two top-20 finish in his last four starts. Joachim B. Hansen With six top-25 finishes in his last seven starts, Hansen’s form is both strong enough and consistent enough to suggest that he will be a contender most weeks. He didn’t play here last year, having just won the Joburg Open, but he did finish in the top-10 in the Qatar Masters earlier this year to evidence his ability in this region. Justin Harding
Harding’s win in the 2019 Qatar Masters is sufficient evidence of his ability in this region. With top-10 finishes in three of his last nine starts, he also has the form and momentum to be a contender this week.
Callum Shinkwin
The final selection completes a shortlist of players who have all previously won on the European Tour – he won the 2020 Cyprus Open. He was inside the top-7 for each of the first three rounds last week to suggest that he is close to returning to the form that saw him record top-5 finishes in July and August. Tips 2-10; +12.88pts 0.25pts e.w. Rafa Cabrero Bello 35/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) mc 0.25pts e.w. Victor Perez 40/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 24th 0.25pts e.w. Martin Kaymer 40/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 13th 0.25pts e.w. Antoine Rozner 40/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 4th 0.25pts e.w. Marcus Armitage 100/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 19th 0.25pts e.w. John Catlin 50/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 31st 0.25pts e.w. Tom Lewis 50/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) mc 0.25pts e.w. Robert Macintyre 50/1 (Unibet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6) 24th 0.25pts e.w. Jordan Smith 60/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 24th 0.25pts e.w. Joachim B. Hansen 50/1 (Sporting Index 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 1st 0.25pts e.w. Justin Harding 80/1 (Unibet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6) 55th 0.25pts e.w. Callum Shinkwin 60/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 31st
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