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After all the hype and tension of the last few months, the Ryder Cup was a quickly forgettable experience for the European team. After a week with few positives for Europe, it is time to focus on the next generation of European Ryder Cup players and that means a re-focus towards those progressing on the European Tour, starting this week with the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. Links golf in Scotland in October is never going appeal to fair weather golf fans, but the event always draws a decent field with four players inside the top-50 in the World Rankings and three of last week’s European Ryder Cup team honouring their commitment to play in this event. Understandably, Tony Finau has decided not honour his commitment to the event, but there is still plenty of up-and-coming talent on show in the Tour’s only pro-am event played in Europe. They will compete over three very different courses. St Andrews, with its wide fairways, typically plays the easiest of the three, but can easily become the most difficult in windy conditions. Carnoustie is also on the Open rota and is typically the hardest given its narrow fairways and penal rough. The final course, Kingsbarns, was designed by Kyle Philips and opened in 2000 and has played much easier in the past, such as in 2012 when Brandon Grace shot 60 here. As with all links courses, one eye should be kept on the weather and its looks very typical for this time of the year: temperatures in the 50s, a constant breeze and showers on all four days. With rounds of up to six hours in length with the amateurs, this will be far colder than the shores of Lake Michigan. With this event dating back to 2001, there is plenty of event history to draw upon and to form the two angles that have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected. Angles to consider: 1. Experience in this event is very important Until the last Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, every single winner of this event after the inaugural event had played in this event previously. The key issue being the nature of this event as a pro-am. It is very difficult to get any rhythm during the first three rounds, so experience is necessary. There is always an exception to the rule and that was Victor Perez in 2019, but he had already moved to nearby Dundee and was playing lots of links golf. With such a local factor in his favour, this angle didn’t hold in 2019, but a look at the rest of leaderboard is supportive: 13 other players finished in the top-10 in 2019 and none were making their event debut. 2. Greens in regulation stats should be important Links golf, and particularly links golf in the wind, is all about ball control. In terms of stats, this points to greens in regulation as being key. Eight of the last ten winners have ranked inside the top-10 for greens in regulation that week. Beyond that, Victor Perez had been ranked 28th on the European Tour for greens in regulation prior to the event in 2019 and Lucas Bjerregaard had been ranked 9th on the European Tour for greens in regulation prior to the event in 2018. In terms of the strokes gained stats which were available for the 2019 event, Perez ranked 1st in terms of strokes gained: tee to green and strokes gained: approach the green. This event is not won on the greens. Clearly greens in regulation is an important stat when measuring the winner’s game during the week and also as a predictive stat at the start of the week. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players have been selected. Martin Kaymer Won this event in 2010 and, with top-3 finishes in Austria and Germany, he has shown enough form this year to indicate that he can win again on this Tour. He ranks inside the top-3 on the European Tour for strokes gained: approach the green. Calum Hill The top-ranked player in terms of scoring average on the European Tour. He won the Cazoo Classic last month and was in 2nd place after 36 holes on his debut in 2019. Robert Macintyre Well-backed selection for this event. Ranking inside the top-10 for both strokes gained: tee to green and greens in regulation, as well as 1st for scrambling, on the European Tour, the Oban resident has the game as well as the experience to fare well on links course. Finished 26th in his event debut in 2019. Marcus Armitage Won the European Open in June and finished inside the top-10 more recently in the European Masters to confirm his form. A ranking inside the top-20 for strokes gained: approach the green is also supportive. Jason Scrivener Rested since late July, but three top-10 finishes in his last six starts confirm Scrivener’s previous form, but none moreso than the Irish Open when he also ranked 1st in strokes gained: tee-to-green and 2nd in strokes gained: approach the green. Finished in the top-25 in 2018. Jamie Donaldson Finished runner-up in his last event, the BMW PGA Championship, his second top-3 finish in four starts. Very good tee-to-green player who has three top-10 finishes in this event. Rafa Cabrera Bello Failed to retain his PGA Tour Card, but was in contention at the BMA PGA Championship until a final round 79. Won the 2017 Scottish Open at Dundonald Links and has a top-5 finish in this event. Richard Bland Has five top-5 finishes in his last ten starts, including a win at the British Masters. Has been really impressive this season and ranks inside the top-25 for both strokes gained: approach the green and greens in regulation. Laurie Canter Runner-up in the BMW PGA Championship last time out and has the game to continue that form around these links courses: he ranks 6th in strokes gained: tee to green and 5th in greens in regulation on the European Tour. Guido Migliozzi Runner-up in consecutive events in May and recently finished in the top-10 in the European Masters to confirm his form. Another with very good tee-to-green stats that should be relevant this week, but more importantly ranks 3rd in scoring average on the European Tour to confirm his quality at this level. John Catlin Multiple winner on the European Tour, most recently at the Austrian Open in April, and has shown form recently. Consistently ranks inside the top-10 for greens in regulation in events played. Strong tee-to-green play evidenced by his top-5 ranking for strokes gained: tee-to-green on the European Tour. Danny Willett course Still trying to compete on the PGA Tour as well as this Tour, which is very challenging. Does have a good record in this event – two top-5 finishes – as well as a 6th place finish around St Andrews in the 2015 Open Championship. Tips 2-10; +31.50pts 0.25pts e.w. Martin Kaymer 50/1 (Skybet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 45th 0.25pts e.w. Calum Hill 50/1 (Skybet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 17th 0.25pts e.w. Robert Macintyre 33/1 (Skybet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) mc 0.25pts e.w. Marcus Armitage 100/1 (Betway 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 51st 0.25pts e.w. Jason Scrivener 100/1 (Betway 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) mc 0.25pts e.w. Jamie Donaldson 70/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) mc 0.25pts e.w. Rafa Cabrera Bello 100/1 (Betway 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) mc 0.25pts e.w. Richard Bland 100/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 4th 0.25pts e.w. Laurie Canter 60/1 (Skybet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 17th 0.25pts e.w. Guido Migliozzi 66/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) mc 0.25pts e.w. John Catlin 66/1 (Skybet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 54th 0.25pts e.w Danny Willett 100/1 (Betway 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 1st
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