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If there was ever a golfing lull before the storm, this is it. After the complications of Ryder Cup qualifications and Captain’s picks impacting upon last week’s event and the high drama of the Ryder Cup starting next week, we have the Dutch Open this week. Previously called the KLM Dutch Open between 1981 and 1990 and simply the KLM Open from 2004 to 2019, KLM have dropped its sponsorship duties and so the event is simply the Dutch Open, as it was in its inaugural event in 1912. Given its place within the Ryder Cup schedule, there are none of the Ryder Cup players in this event. Only 47 of this week’s field even competed in last week’s BMW Championship. Given that 23 played in last week’s German Challenge on the Challenge Tour, this shows how much the field quality has dropped from last week. They will play at Bernardus Golf who will stage this event for the next three years. This is a Kyle Phillips course that was only opened in 2018. It is a flat, heathland course with water coming into play on 11 holes and extensive bunkering throughout that brings in a risk/reward aspect. With little other than course reviews from amateurs to draw upon, it is clear that there has been a major investment in this resort from a golf tourist point of view. The facilities and the course are excellent with almost universal positive reviews, other than the price of the green fees. Many reviews point to the lack of growth of the rough given the very young age of the course, but 900,000 new heather plants were installed in the rough in the last year. It will be some time before this plays to Tour standard in terms of difficulty of rough, so this is expected to be a low-scoring event. With rain expected today (Tuesday) and Wednesday, but calm, dry conditions during the event, this is not expected to be a challenging event. Two days’ of rain may make the rough harder to play from, but it is not expected to be a major factor this week given recent dry weather. As with any new course being used and with a very changed field this week, the following two angles are offered tentatively as indicative of who should contend this week. Angles to consider: 1. Form will be important in this low-scoring event Everything points to a low-scoring event and with little else to draw upon in terms of course characteristics, a recent record of low scoring may be a good predictor of who will compete the strongest this week. Normally, I would look to players who have good recent ball-striking stats to see who will present themselves with the most birdie opportunities, but with the quality of this field and the large proportion of Challenge Tour players this week, such an approach is less appropriate. 2. Scrambling should be important Golf reviews refer to the large runoff areas and, given the calm weather forecast and the lack of rough due to the course age, I expect the pin placements to be challenging this week. The ability to save a scorecard may well be important in what will otherwise be a low-scoring event. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected. Rory Sabbatini Has shown enough form recently – 2nd in the Olympics and 10th in the Wyndham Championship – to show that he can be very competitive on this Tour. Made the cut, but off the pace in two European Tour events, but this week is different as those events had long histories at the same venue so no disadvantage for Sabbatini this week. Andrew Johnston Impressive when finishing 6th last week at Wentworth – his fifth top-20 finish in his last nine starts – and he was very solid from tee-to-green, ranking inside the top-10 for driving accuracy, greens in regulation and scrambling. Ranks inside the top-5 for scoring average on the European Tour to highlight his ability, while a top-5 ranking for scrambling indicates he should be well-suited to this course setup. Joachim B. Hansen form Top-20 finish at Wentworth signals his form and having won the Joburg Open last year, he should be comfortable at this level of competition. Justin Harding Won the low-scoring Kenya Open earlier this year and a leading player this year on the European Tour, ranked inside the top-10 for scoring average, including 21st for scrambling. Missed last two cuts, but still has finishes of 2nd and 7th in last five starts. George Coetzee Won in South Africa last month and while finishing well down the leaderboard last week, ranked 1st for strokes gained: around the green which should be relevant this week. Finished inside the top-3 in this event in 2017. Wil Besseling Home player who finished 13th two weeks ago in the European Masters, his fifth top-20 finish in ten starts. He led the field in greens in regulation that week and ranks inside the top-20 on the European Tour this season in that category. Clearly a player of pedigree in this field who has been unfazed by playing in front of his home crowds, finishing 20th and 7th in his two previous starts. Graeme McDowell Hasn’t featured on the leaderboard in his three events since moving over from the PGA Tour, but they have been against much stronger fields in the Irish Open, Scottish Open and BMW PGA Championship. He did finish in the top-5 on the PGA Tour (Corales Puntacana Resort and Club Championship) earlier this year, so enough to warrant attention at these odds. Maximilian Kieffer Finished 2nd in back-to-back events earlier this season (Austrian Open and Gran Canaria Lopesan Open) against fields not dissimilar to this week. Will be suited if the wet weather does make accuracy more important this week, but also has a decent form in this event with top-40 finishes in all three attempts. Paul Peterson Another who will fare better if there are penalties for finding the heather. But he also has a very good short game, ranking inside the top-5 for strokes gained: around the green on the European Tour. Finished 4th three weeks ago in the Czech Masters to illustrate his form. Maverick Antcliff Has four top-10 finishes on the European Tour over the past year, but has threatened to record many more: led the European Open with one round to play in the 54-hole event, but finished 11th; was inside the top-5 after 36 in both the Cazoo Classic and Czech Masters last month, but finished outside the top-20. Gives himself plenty of opportunities, so worth of interest at these odds. Brandon Stone Misses plenty of cuts, but capable of high finishes when playing at the weekend, having won three times on the European Tour. This year, he has won in South Africa, finished 2nd in the Dubai Desert Classic and 7th in the Qatar Masters. More recently, he finished 12th in the Czech Masters and 45th last week, so form is strong enough for this event. Darius Van Driel Finishes of 8th (Gran Canario Lopesan Open), 2nd (European Open) and 7th (ISPS Handa World Invitationa) in recent months are supportive. That he ranks inside the top-15 for scrambling on the European is also supportive given these odds and this field. Tips 1-11; -0.75pts 0.25pts e.w. Rory Sabbatini 33/1 (Spreadex 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6) 50th 0.25pts e.w. Andrew Johnston 25/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) mc 0.25pts e.w. Joachim B. Hansen 40/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 22nd 0.25pts e.w. Justin Harding 33/1 (Unibet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6) 9th 0.25pts e.w. George Coetzee 35/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7 50th 0.25pts e.w. Wil Besseling 35/1 (Betfred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) mc 0.25pts e.w. Graeme McDowell 60/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 22nd 0.25pts e.w. Maximilian Kieffer 60/1 (Bet365, 10Bet, Sport Nation, Sporting Index, VBet 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 15th 0.25pts e.w. Paul Peterson 60/1 (Betfred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) mc 0.25pts e.w. Maverick Antcliff 80/1 (Unibet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6) 27th 0.25pts e.w. Brandon Stone 50/1 (Betfred, Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 32nd 0.25pts e.w. Darius Van Driel 100/1 (Unibet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6) 4th
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