|
Welcome to the Jon Rahm show, or at least this is what it is expected to be. Having won the last two Opens de Espana, won six of his 16 regular European Tour events and facing no other player in the top-50 of the World Rankings, he certainly warrants very short odds. Not quite the evens that were available during Tiger’s heyday, but as close as the European Tour has been for quite some time. But those odds look a little too short to me given that this is a 132-player field and there is a large degree of clustering of ‘next level’ players in this field who are at the top of the European Tour this season, so let's focus on the better opportunities elsewhere. This is a national Open that was first staged over a century ago and has been a regular on the European Tour since its beginnings in 1972. Recently, it has had a rather unfortunate place on the Tour schedule - held the week after either The Masters or The Players Championship - so it was moved to the October slot in 2019 in the hope that it would produce a better field. This has not been the case. Whereas there were 15 players competing in the 2016 event who were ranked inside the top-100 in the World Rankings, there were only seven in 2019 and that is again the case this week. The venue is the Club de Campo Villa de Madrid which will host the Open de Espana for the tenth time this week. It hosted the last Open de Espana in 2019 and has also hosted the 2000 Turespana Masters, the Open de Madrid between 2001 and 2005 and the 2008 Madrid Masters. As such, there is plenty of course history, but just one event in the last decade. The course has been lengthened a little since 2008 event, but at just 7,112 yards, barely enough to offset the improvements in golf technology. The course played rather short in these events and that is likely to be the same. The course is normally well-watered during the summer months and that means that it should be rather soft. It is notable that while Padraig Harrington won the 1996 Open de Espana with a score of 272 in April of that year, all the other events above were played in October and scoring was much lower. Raphael Jacquelin won the 2005 Open de Madrid with a score of 261 and Jon Rahm won two years with a score of 262. The course is undulating and while the fairways are tree-lined, they are generous in width and the rough is not penal. Scoring would not have been so low in previous events here if the trees and rough had been real penalties. The greens are small, multi-tiered and tricky. Despite an obvious concentration on the 2019 event, there is still enough course history to identify some angles which should be profitable this week. Angles to consider: 1. Form is important at this stage of the season As we approach the final six events of the season, there are two sets of players who are normally under pressure: those seeking to finish in the top-70 of the Race to Dubai to play in the final set of three Rolex Series events and those outside the top-110 who need a good finish to avoid a trip to Q-School. This year is a little different in that there is only one Rolex Series event (for the top-50) and there is no Q-School, but a ‘safety net’ for those finishing outside the top-110. There will be players who completely turn around a season with one strong event, as was the case with Joakim Lagergren last week, but they often fall short of winning as the downside of an overly aggressive final round strategy can be very steep. So recent form can be a very good indicator of who is likely to be able contend on Sunday afternoon. In this event in 2019, every one of the top-10 (eleven players) had secured a top-20 finish in their last five starts and each of the top-3 had secured at least one top-10 finish in their last two starts. 2. The par-4s are key to winning at the Club de Campo This is a very clear angle. The last six winners on this course have ranked 1st-1st-1st-1st-2nd-1st in par-4 scoring that week. And it is more than just the eventual winners. In 2019, both Rahm and Cabrera Bello (runner up) ranked 1st in par-4 scoring; in 2008, the top-3 in par-4 scoring occupied the top-3 positions on the leaderboard; the same was also the case in 2005; the top-3 in this category were in the top-4 positions in 2004, and so on. 3. Scrambling will also be key With little rough, this would the equivalent of the resort-style courses used on the European Tour since last summer if it weren’t for the small, multi-tiered greens. For all that scoring is low around this course, it is notable that in 2019, Rahm ranked 3rd for scrambling and Cabrera Bello ranked 1st in that category. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected. Calum Hill The top-ranked player in terms of scoring average on the European Tour. He won the Cazoo Classic last month and finished in the top-20 last week. He also finished in the top-20 on this course in 2019 and meets the above angles – ranked inside the top-15 for both par-4 scoring and scrambling on the European Tour – to suggest that he will be a strong contender again this week. Guido Migliozzi Runner-up in consecutive events in May and finished in the top-20 last week to confirm his form. However, as the third-ranked player in terms of scoring average on the European Tour, he is another at the very top of this Tour. Also ranks very highly in terms of birdies and strokes gained: tee to green so should present himself with plenty of birdie opportunities this week. Masahiro Kawamura Another player ranked highly in terms of scoring average of the European Tour (13th). Didn’t make the cut last week, but three top-5 finishes in his last eight starts is very supportive, as are his top-20 rankings on the European Tour for birdies and strokes gained: tee to green. Rafa Cabrera Bello Failed to retain his PGA Tour Card, but was in contention at the BMA PGA Championship until a final round 79. Finished 2nd behind Rahm on this course two years ago to match his top-10 finish in his previous start on this course (2008 Madrid Masters). Mikko Korhonen Has four top-10 finishes in his last ten starts, but never in consecutive events so it may be supportive that he finished 45th last week. Finished in the top-20 here in 2019 and a much better player now (ranked 18th in scoring average on the European Tour), while a top-20 ranking for par-4 scoring also suggests that he should fare well again on this course. Marcus Armitage Won the European Open in June and finished inside the top-10 more recently in the European Masters to confirm his form. Another player at the top tier of the European Tour with a top-20 ranking for scoring average, as well as strokes gained: approach the green. Victor Perez Has shown improved form recently, particularly for three rounds in both the Cazoo Classic and Italian Open. A former winner in Spain on the Challenge Tour (2017 Challenge de Espana) and, for all that this has been a disappointing season, he has still been very good from tee-to-green – he leads the Tour in greens in regulation – so should give himself plenty of birdies opportunities this week. Jamie Donaldson Another very good tee-to-green player who should have plenty of birdies opportunities. Finished runner-up in his penultimate event, the BMW PGA Championship, his second top-3 finish in four starts. Finished in the top-25 here two years ago and has finished in the top-15 in all three starts in Spain since then. Very consistent, ranking in the top-15 for scoring average on the European Tour, and that includes a high ranking for scrambling. Justin Harding Yet another player competing at the top tier of the European Tour with a top-10 ranking for scoring average this season. Has three top-10 finishes in his last seven starts and has a particularly good record in Spain: he finished 7th here in 2019 to start a run of four consecutive top-15 finishes in this country up to the Tenerife Open earlier this year. Richard Bland Has six top-5 finishes in his last eleven starts, including a win at the British Masters. Has been really impressive since that win and so ranks 7th for scoring average on the European Tour this season. In of the above angles, he ranks inside the top-25 for par-4 scoring and inside the top-5 for scrambling, but in this form, he is competitive on virtually every course. Andrew Johnston And one more from the top row of the European Tour’s scoring average category who can take on Jon Rahm this week. He ranks 5th in that category. A top-10 finish at the BMW PGA Championship confirms his form and a top-10 ranking for scrambling is also supportive this week as he seeks to follow up on his 2016 victory in this event at Valderrama, next week’s venue. Antoine Rozner Hasn’t rediscovered his game after switching to the PGA for a series of events in Spring, following two wins in six starts on the European Tour, but there is encouragement with a top-15 finish in the European Masters. Still ranks very highly tee-to-green – with top-10 ranking for strokes gained: off the tee, strokes gained: tee to green, and greens in regulation – so is another who should give himself plenty of birdies opportunities this week. Tips 1-11; +12.50pts 0.25pts e.w. Calum Hill 40/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 45th 0.25pts e.w. Guido Migliozzi 33/1 (Bet365, Mansion Bet, 10Bet, Sport Nation 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) mc 0.25pts e.w. Masahiro Kawamura 40/1 (Bet365, Sporting Index, VBet 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) mc 0.25pts e.w. Rafa Cabrera Bello 60/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 1st 0.25pts e.w. Mikko Korhonen 60/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 20th 0.25pts e.w. Marcus Armitage 70/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 45th 0.25pts e.w. Victor Perez 40/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) mc 0.25pts e.w. Jamie Donaldson 80/1 (Spreadex 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6) 24th 0.25pts e.w. Justin Harding 55/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) mc 0.25pts e.w. Richard Bland 66/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 9th 0.25pts e.w. Andrew Johnston 60/1 Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 24th 0.25pts e.w Antoine Rozner 60/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 56th
|
