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The prize fund has doubled and there is a visible increase in the field quality this week as the Ryder Cup deadline has approached. That doesn’t mean to say that it will be more exciting this week. There was plenty of drama yesterday with The Northern Trust, but it still didn’t match the back nine on Sunday afternoon with Johannes Veerman, Tapio Pulkkanen, Henrik Stenson and Sean Crocker. The venue is the Crans-sur-Sierre Golf Club, situated at an altitude of one mile above sea level. At this altitude, the ball flies much further so this is a very short course at less than 7,000 yards in length. The driver will be rarely used, so there is little point in looking at driving distance or driving accuracy stats. The most frequently-used adjective for this course is ‘quirky’, which, at this altitude, is not surprising. The fairways are average in width and are tree-lined, but they shouldn’t be a real penalty given the lack of drivers in use. Instead, ball control is needed because of the slopes on the fairway and the need to attack the flag from appropriate angles given that the greens are small, undulating and generally of the 'upturned-saucer' variety. The European Masters has been played at this event since 1939 so there is plenty of course history to use, even though there were significant changes to the course in 1999 (by Seve Ballesteros) and in 2013. The following angles are offered to identify players who should contend this week. Angles to consider: 1. Quirky course equals course history is important Sometimes it is better not to ignore the most obvious and widely-cited angle. This is an unusual course, so those who master the altitude changes here are more able to do so year after year. Matthew Fitzpatrick won this event in 2018 and 2017. In 2016, Alex Noren won after already winning here in 2009; in 2015, Danny Willett won after being 2nd in 2012; in 2013, Thomas Bjorn won for the second time in three years. There have been outliers in 2019 (Sebastian Soderberg), 2014 (David Lipsky) and 2012 (Richie Ramsay), but they all entered this event in very good form with finishes of 5th, 24th and 6th, respectively, in the week before the win, so there is a small caveat to this most famous angle. 2. The cream rises to the top on this mountain range Again taking 2019, 2014 and 2012 as exceptions to the rule at Crans-sur-Sierre, it is noticeable that the winners this decade have been world class players who have all ranked in the top-75 in the World Rankings at the start of the week when they won here. Those rankings have been, in descending chronological order: Fitzpatrick (45th), Fitzpatrick (47th), Noren (39th), Willett (32nd), Bjorn (65th), Bjorn (70th), Jimenez (39th). In terms of 2019, Rory McIlroy was 2nd in the World Rankings at the time and lost out in a playoff to Soderberg 3. This a second-shot course As mentioned earlier, the tee-shots should not be particularly important here unless spectacularly bad. This is a second-shot course and that is reflected in the greens in regulation stats at the top of the leaderboard each year. The last event in 2019 is very much an exception to this rule, but first and second on the leaderboard in 2018 were also ranked first and second in greens in regulation. In 2017, Scott Hend ranked 1st for greens in regulation and finished 2nd. He would also finish 2nd in 2016 and rank 2nd in greens in regulation that week. 2015 was a repeat of 2018 when first and second on the leaderboard last year were also ranked first and second in greens in regulation. And in terms of the 'exception to the rule' years of 2012 and 2014, it is noteworthy that Ramsay won in 2012 and led the field in greens in regulation that week, while Lipsky won in 2014 and ranked 2nd in greens in regulation. Not such an exception to the rule, after all, Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected. Thomas Detry Runners-up finishes in each of the last two months (European Open and Scottish Open) show that Detry is a player in very good form even if he continues to frustrate in terms of winning chances. A top-20 finish two years ago is a good indicator that the World Ranked #75 will put himself into contention again this week. Guido Migliozzi Migliozzi is another with a number of runners-up finishes recently – three in 2021 alone – but he did win twice in 2019 to confirm that he can convert his chances. In terms of course fit, he meets all the angles above: ranks 67th in the World Rankings, finished 33rd on his debut here in 2019, and ranks inside the top-15 for greens in regulation on the European Tour. Rory Sabbatini Sabbatini did play in this event in 2019 and was well-placed for three rounds. However, it is his recent form that makes him worth considering for this event. He followed up his silver medal in the Olympics with a top-10 finish in the Wyndham Championship and then started last week in blistering fashion before dropping back to finish 33rd. In this form, he can certainly contend this week now that he has recent course experience. Kalle Samooja Samooja was one of five players in the playoff in 2019. He has since lost another playoff for a European Tour title (2020 Cyprus Open) but has maintained his form to such an extent that he ranks inside the top-25 for scoring average on the European Tour. With a top-20 ranking in strokes gained: approach the green, he has the game as well as the course history and the form to suggest that he will contend again this week. Andy Sullivan Sullivan is a player who can dominate an event at times, as he did when winning the English Championship last year, his fourth win on the European Tour. More often, though, he threatens to win, but doesn’t really look the same player over the weekend, as shown recently in the BMW International Open, Irish Open and Cazoo Classic. That said, his form and game stats are good, so he warrants attention at these odds given that he does have a top-30 finish on this course. Marcus Armitage Won the European Open in June and has a top-20 finish from his only previous appearance here (2017). With a top-20 ranking for strokes gained: approach the green on the European Tour (and he ranked 3rd in this category in his last event), he looks a good fit for this course. Martin Kaymer Kaymer is a good fit for any ‘second shot’ course. He hasn’t played since the Open Championship, but prior to that he ranked 2nd in strokes gained: approach the green in the U.S. Open and led that category in the BMW International Open. He has a runners-up finish here (2011) and four top-3 finishes on the European Tour over the past twelve months. Andrew Johnston Johnston is another who hasn’t played since last month, but top-15 finishes in the BMW International Open and the Irish Open are evidence of strong form prior to his break. He ranks 4th in scoring average on the European Tour to show his pedigree at this level and has a top-3 finish in this event (2016) as he recorded sub-70 rounds in 12 of his last 13 rounds here. Dean Burmester Burmester is another at the top of the European Tour level, ranking 12th in scoring average on this Tour. He won the Tenerife Open in May at the start of a purple patch of form and he may have started another with a 6th place finish last week. Has recorded a top-30 finish on this course. Jamie Donaldson As with Kaymer, Donaldson is a good fit for any ‘second shot’ course and he has a good record on this course with seven top-25 finishes. His game has returned to a higher level this year and that sees him rank inside the top-20 for scoring average on the European Tour so worthy of consideration on this course. Danny Willett A former winner here (2015) who has also finished 2nd (2012) and 5th (2014). His recent finishes may not look encouraging, but he was inside the top-10 early in the Open Championship before finishing 33rd and in his only event since Sandwich, last week’s Czech Masters, he was 3rd after round 1. Antoine Rozner Experienced a dip in form after winning both the Golf in Dubai Championship in December and the Qatar Masters in March, but his form has been more encouraging recently as he has moved away from playing across both the European and PGA Tours. He still ranks inside the top-20 for both strokes gained: approach the green and greens in regulation on the European Tour, so his game is a good fit for this course and he is a proven winner at this level. Tips 1-11; -5.67pts 0.25pts e.w. Thomas Detry 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 888sport 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 27th 0.25pts e.w. Guido Migliozzi 35/1 (Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 7th 0.25pts e.w. Rory Sabbatini 45/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 60th 0.25pts e.w. Kalle Samooja 50/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) mc 0.25pts e.w. Andy Sullivan 35/1 (Skybet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 40th 0.25pts e.w. Marcus Armitage 60/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 7th 0.25pts e.w. Martin Kaymer 50/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 18th 0.25pts e.w. Andrew Johnston 50/1 (BetFred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 60th 0.25pts e.w. Dean Burmester 40/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 40th 0.25pts e.w. Jamie Donaldson 60/1 (Sport Nation 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 27th 0.25pts e.w. Danny Willett 45/1 (Skybet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) mc 0.25pts e.w. Antoine Rozner 50/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 888sport, Betway, Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 13th
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