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This is a good week to take stock of how far we have come in the last year. While there were no crowds around the short par-3 16th hole at Himmerland last week, there was a sense that we were getting close to normality. Last Thursday’s announcement that the European Open was to be delayed by two days and reduced to 54 holes was a sharp reminder of how long the road may still be to that normality. The German government put the UK on its travel ‘red list’, but the response was not to postpone the event to later in the year, but to delay and re-shape the event. Resilience has been a by-product of the last year. Other than the usual field changes at the very start of the week, only Victor Dubuisson and Alexnader Knappe have made the late decision not to travel to Germany. Most of the players will arrive tomorrow for an event that starts the following day. Strange times indeed. With Porsche as the tournament sponsor, this event has attracted many Americans since the current venue was first used in 2017. Patrick Reed finished in the top-20 that year and returned the following year with Bryson Dechambeau and both finished in the top-15. In the last iteration in 2019, the list of American PGA Tour regulars grew with Reed joined by Xander Schauffele and Matt Kuchar. Naturally, none of these have returned this time, though Mexican Abraham Ancer does play and is the top-ranked player in terms of World Rankings. The European Open returned to the European Tour in 2015 and, after being hosted at Bad Griesbach for two years, it moved to Green Eagle Golf Courses in 2017, which is a collection of 42 holes spread across 3 courses. This event is played on the North course which is a big, American-style parkland course with a maximum yardage of 7,836 yards. There are four teeing areas on each of the holes, so there is considerable scope for varying the length according to the players and the weather and it is expected to play at 7,603 yards in official yardage, but will probably vary considerably from day to day. The length derives primarily from the five par-5s with three registering over 600 yards and the 16th hole being played at 705 yards this week. Given that there are three par-5s in the last four holes, it should be a venue for high drama on Sunday. That said, water features on every hole bar one to continue the American-style look to the course and that ensures that this is not simply a paradise for the big hitters. The greens are large and undulating and generally rather quick. With just three European Tour events held here plus a few Nordic Golf League events, the following are cautiously offered as angles to identify players who should contend this week Angle to consider: 1. Course form will be important Given that the players will arrive the day before the tournament starts, this is a rather obvious angle. There will not be the usual two days of practising on the course, made all the more important with the large, undulating greens in play this week. In terms of tee-to-green, this is a straightforward course so there should not be too much penalty from the tee for lack of practice here, but it will be felt on the greens. And this angle isn’t just for this rather special circumstance. After the first event was played here in 2017, the winner in 2018, Richard McEvoy, had competed the previous year on this course and had been the first round leader. In 2019, Paul Casey won the event having finished 7th the previous year, while Matthias Schwab finished 2nd having also finished 7th the previous year. 2. Tee-to-green game is important at Green Eagle Given the course yardage and the number of par-5s, it would be easy to say that this course favours long hitters. That was the case in the wet conditions in 2017, but not in 2018 when none of the top-10 ranked inside the top-35 for driving distance that week and this was also not evident in 2019 when all of the top-5 on the leaderboard ranked higher for driving accuracy than driving distance that week. What is clear is that the winner in each of the three years has been highly-ranked across the tee-to-green statistics. Take the standard metrics of driving distance, driving accuracy and greens in regulation (the European Tour’s strokes gained stats were not reported for Casey in 2019). Jordan Smith won in 2017 and ranked 3rd-7th-15th across these metrics, respectively. Richard McEvoy won in 2018 and ranked 62nd-6th-8th across these metrics, respectively. Paul Casey won in 2019 and ranked 12th-8th-2nd across these metrics, respectively. Alongside the top-six places in 2019 featuring four of the top-5 in greens in regulation that week, it is clear that the tee-to-green stats are very important here and not length off the tee. 3. Par-3 scoring should not be discounted The popular focus is predictably on the par-5s given that there are five of them and that this is one of the longest courses in the world when played to its full length. However, it should also be remembered that there are five par-3s, all under 200 yards. When Casey won in 2019, he ranked 1st for par-3 scoring, but only 13th and 14th for par-4 and par-5 scoring. When McEvoy won in 2018, he did lead the field in par-5 scoring that week, but five of the top-six places ranked inside the top-8 for par-3 scoring that week. While the length of the par-5s may make some of them three-shotters and so negate the value of length off the tee, the par-3s cannot be ignored as being important for scoring here. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected. Bernd Wiesberger I see no reason why he can’t win back-to-back events. He has won more events on the European Tour than any other player since 2012. When he won the 2019 Made in Denmark, he finished 8th the following week in the Belgian Knockout. When he won the 2017 Shenzhen International, he finished 4th the following week in the China Open. As for his four other European Tour wins, he didn’t play a European Tour event the following week. He has the form from last week’s win and the course history to warrant a short price – he finished 5th here in 2019. And in terms of tee-to-green play, he is very strong, ranking inside the top-20 for strokes gained: tee to green and greens in regulation. Matthias Schwab Schwab is another with a very strong stats profile for this course – top-15 for strokes gained: approach the green, strokes gained: tee to green, and greens in regulation. He has finished in the top-15 in five of his last six starts and has a great record on this course with finishes of 7th (2018) and 2nd (2019). And at 5-under-par, he had the second beat score on the par-3s last week, so he is an obvious selection given the above angles. Sam Horsfield And so is Horsfield. In terms of stats, he is the complete player, ranking inside the top-25 for par-3, par-4 and par-5 scoring, as well as strokes gained: approach the green, strokes gained: tee-to-green, greens in regulation, strokes gained: putting, putts per GIR and putts per round. He tops the European Tour rankings in several of these categories. Twice a winner in August last year, it is a rather modest return that his five European Tour starts this year has yield finishes of 8th-3rd-15th-4th-21st. In his last start, he was 2nd after the opening round of the PGA Championship. He finished inside the top-15 two years here and that will the minimum expectation this year. Tips 0-2; -4.00pts 1pt e.w. Bernd Wiesberger 16/1 (Bet365, VBet 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 40th 1pt e.w. Matthias Schwab 18/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 45th 1pt e.w. Sam Horsfield 22/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) dns
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