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The penultimate event of seven in GB and Ireland is the Hero Open which returns for a second year. Once again it is scheduled against the WGC event – the St Jude Invitational – which impacts on both the purse and field this week. Andy Sullivan is the top-ranked player in the field in terms of World Rankings (86th), while only one other player is in the top-100: Daniel Van Tonder. This week’s venue is the Torrance course at Fairmont St Andrews, designed by Denis Griffiths with input from Sam Torrance. The course was built in 2001 and re-designed in 2008, so it is not a traditional links in the pure sense of the word, but it certainly looks like one. The fairways and greens are generous, as they are only a few miles away on the Old Course, and scores will be low if the winds are calm. If there is any significant breeze, it is forecast to be on Thursday only. This course hosted the Scottish Championship in October last year and, with conditions calm, the winner was Adrian Otaegui with a winning score of 23-under-par. At 7,230 yards in length, this is not a particularly short course for a links, but without the primary defence of wind, most links courses will yield low scores. The course also hosted the Scottish Senior Open between 2009 and 2014, but that is of limited information content for this week’s event. Given that there has only been one European Tour event held on this course, it is easy to draw too many conclusions from a single observation, so only two angles are offered to identify players who should contend this week. Angle to consider: 1. Tee-to-green to success This has been written about many times in these previews at low-scoring venues. Otaegui’s winning score was very low, he made 29 birdies and he naturally ranked very high in the traditional putting stats, but the strokes gained data shows that he scored well because of his tee-to-green play. He had lots of birdies because he gave himself many very good chances, rather than he had a career week on the greens. The top-3 on the leaderboard (Otaegui, Matt Wallace and Aaron Rai) also ranked 1st, 2nd and 3rd, respectively, in strokes gained: tee-to green. They ranked, respectively, 6th, 24th and 36th in stokes gained: putting. Ball control is always important around links courses and this week should be no different. 2. Scrambling is always important on links courses In terms of strokes gained: around the green, the top-3 on the leaderboard all ranked inside the top-11 for this category, which is supportive of this angle, but it is also instructive to look at the players' game profiles before the event and not just look at their stats during the event. Heading into the event, Otaegui was ranked 7th on the European Tour for scrambling, Rai was ranked 24th and, while Wallace didn’t feature in any European Tour rankings at the time, 4th-placed Chris Paisley ranked 6th in scrambling on the European Tour. Players with proven short games tend to fare well on links courses and this week should be no different. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected. Marcus Armitage The winner of the European Open in June also played well at Fairmont St Andrews last year to finish 7th. He ranks inside the top-25 for scrambling on the European Tour, but it is his overall play that sees him ranked inside the top-20 for strokes gained: total on the European Tour. Connor Syme Another very good all-round player, ranking inside the top-20 for scoring average on the European Tour, though he does rank much better for strokes gained: tee-to-green than strokes gained: putting. Should be at home on links courses. Wil Besseling Another very good all-around player who ranks 32nd for greens in regulation on the European Tour. Missed the cut last week, but had secured top-20 finishes in four of his previous six starts and finished in a solid 30th place here last year. Darius Van Driel Finished in the top-10 last week – his fourth top-10 finish in his last 13 starts – and has the game profile to do so again this week: he ranks 31st in strokes gained: approach the green and 23rd in scrambling on the European Tour. Finished in a solid 33rd place here last year Calum Hill Another with a solid record on links courses and finished in the top-25 here last year. Form has waned over the last month, but had been at a very high level for this Tour. He still ranks 6th for scoring average on the European Tour. Hugo Leon Identified as ‘worthy of interest’ last week on the basis of his form and he finished 7th. Having finished 15th in the Cazoo Open the previous week and missing out on a Challenge Tour event by a single shot a month ago, he remains worthy of interest, even though the odds indicate that rather more share the opinion this week. Jamie Donaldson With a game built on ‘fairways and greens’, Donaldson should do well on this course. He did so last year when finishing inside the top-10 and, ranking 26th in scoring average on the European Tour, he continues to be competitive at this level. Joachim B. Hansen Has finished in the top-5 in each of his last three appearances in the Scottish Challenge at Spey Valley Golf Club (2015-2018) and is now achieving success on the European Tour where he has recorded three top-10 finishes in his last 11 starts. Did compete in the Olympics last week, though, finishing 27th. Ashun Wu Wu also competed in the Olympics last week, finishing 32nd, which is an indication of ability relative to this field, but the travel is a minor concern. Is one of the leading players around the green on the European Tour, ranking inside the top-5 for scrambling this season (which also means that he ranks inside the top-5 for bogey avoidance). Jeff Winther Solid all-round and under-priced player who is yet to win on this Tour, but has recorded top-3 finishes both last year and this year on the European Tour. Oliver Farr da Likewise with Farr, though he is on more radars given that he has finished inside the top-15 in each of the last two weeks and finished in the top-10 here last year. Callum Shinkwin Shinkwin is the opposite to Farr, being long rather than accurate off the tee and much more erratic in terms of performances. In his last five starts, he has one top-5 finish, three missed cuts and a withdrawal. He has done well on links courses, though, finishing inside the top-10 in the last 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship and 2nd in the 2017 Scottish Open around Dundonald Links. Tips 1-10; -3.25pts 0.25pts e.w. Marcus Armitage 25/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 38th 0.25pts e.w. Connor Syme 35/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) mc 0.25pts e.w. Wil Besseling 45/1 (BetFred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6) 30th 0.25pts e.w. Darius Van Driel 50/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betway, Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 53rd 0.25pts e.w. Calum Hill 40/1 (Unibet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6) 4th 0.25pts e.w. Hugo Leon 55/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 16th 0.25pts e.w. Jamie Donaldson 60/1 (Unibet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6) 34th 0.25pts e.w. Joachim B. Hansen 40/1 (Betway 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 56th 0.25pts e.w. Ashun Wu 60/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) dns 0.25pts e.w. Jeff Winther 80/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) mc 0.25pts e.w. Oliver Farr 66/1 (Bertway 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 30th 0.25pts e.w. Callum Shinkwin 70/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 16th
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