|
* UPDATE * When researching angles for this tournament, I looked at how European Tour players had fared the week after playing in a Major on American soil. Because of scheduling issues, I found a lot more players competed in a European Tour event the week after the U.S. Open and, unwittingly, I thought only about the U.S. Open when writing up the angle below. As such, the angle refers wrongly to the U.S. Open when it should have referred to all Majors on American soil. In terms of events after the PGA Championship, the staging of the Paul Lawrie Matchplay in 2016 and 2017 can be discounted (though Noren and Morrison finished 2nd and 3rd in 2016) and there were only three people who competed in the Celtic Classic last year after the PGA Championship. For the other years, the Made in Denmark event followed the PGA Championship in 2014, 2015 and 2019, while the Nordea Masters followed the PGA Championship in 2018. In 2019, three players finished in the top-25 who had played in the PGA Championship so this wasn't particularly strong evidence for the angle for that year, but it can be found for the other years. Only three players competed in the 2018 Nordea Masters having competed in the PGA Championship, but one of these, Thorbjorn Olesen, finished 4th. Only four players competed in the 2015 Made in Denmark having competed in the PGA Championship, but one of these, Soren Kjeldsen, finished 2nd. Likewise, only four players competed in the 2014 Made in Denmark having competed in the PGA Championship, but of these, Marc Warren won the event, Thomas Bjorn finished 4th and Thorbjorn Olesen finished 7th in the Made in Denmark. There are only a small number of players who compete in Europe the week after the PGA Championship, but the results do not weaken the angle below that refers to the U.S. Open only. In terms of European Tour events following The Masters, there is not always European Tour events the following week or they are very low ranking events such as the Shenzhen International or the Trophee Hassan II so a couple of players would have competed in both weeks, if any. However, when an event in Europe such as the Open de Espana followed The Masters, as in 2016 and 2018, this is again supportive of this angle. Only three people played in both events, but of these, Jon Rahm won the 2018 Open de Espana having finished 4th the previous week. In 2016, six players competed at The Masters the previous week: Sergio Garcia (3rd), Soren Kjeldsen (4th), Martin Kaymer (6th), Rafa Cabrera-Bello (16th), Andy Sullivan (16th), Chris Wood (34th). As this evidence shows, the 'U.S. Open' angle below can be applied to Majors on American soil in general. Sorry for any confusion! === How do you follow last week’s event? It was great to be back at Augusta National in springtime, but the drama of Mickelson becoming the oldest winner of a Major Championship – and in front of crowds – will be hard to beat. Expectations for this week’s spectacle in Denmark will be much lower, but after Richard Bland winning at the 478th attempt and becoming the oldest first-time winner on the European Tour two weeks ago, who knows what drama will unfold this week. The field is weaker than the British Masters two weeks ago and this is reflected in the lower purse on offer, but stronger than the events in the Canary Islands. This week’s event features six players inside the top-100 in the World Rankings; those three events had 3-5 players matching that criterion. They will play in an event that has been renamed from the original ‘Made in Denmark’ which had been a constant on the European from 2014, though it did not take place in last year’s covid-affected season. Five of the six events have been held at this week’s venue, with Silkeborg Ry Golf Club hosting the event in 2018. One aspect to note is that this event was held in August from 2014-2018 with only the 2019 event taking part at the current May slot on the schedule. Given the difference in course conditions between mid-Spring and mid-Summer, more weight should be placed on the 2019 event than the previous Made in Denmark events held here until 2017 or the Nordic Golf League events held here in October each year. The course is inland, but has a links-type feel with undulating fairways and greens while the most commonly-used adjective is ‘exposed’. It can be extremely windy here, particularly on the back nine, and that adds to the links feel of the place. It is nature that is the course’s biggest defence not length. In fact, the official length of the course used for this event has declined over time, from just over 7,000 yards to 6,751 yards this year. There are typically five tees per holes so there can be a big difference between official and actual yardages, but the focus is clear. This is a short course that has limited defences when the winds are calm. Given that the forecast is for winds of only 10-15mph throughout the week, and declining with each day, this should be a low-scoring event. Given the above preamble, here are a few angles to identify players who should contend this week Angle to consider: 1. Lack of a U.S. Open hangover As the most mentally-demanding of the four Majors, it would be expected that competing in the U.S. Open would negatively impact upon the performances of European players the following week, particularly as they also have the added factor of a trans-Atlantic flight. But the evidence shows the opposite. Discounting those ranked outside the top-150 in the World Rankings – they might not be expected to contend regularly anyway – five players played in last year’s Irish Open, having competed in the previous week’s U.S. Open. Their finishing positions were 3rd-7th-11th-11th-mc. In 2019, Matthew Fitzpatrick lost out in a playoff for the BMW International Open, while Rafa Cabrera Bello and Matt Wallace finished 3rd. All three had played in the U.S. Open the previous week. It was a similar situation with the BMW International Open winners in 2016, 2017 and 2018 having also played the previous week in the U.S. Open. 2. Strokes gained: approach the green and tee to green will be important This has become a regular angle on these pages, particularly when the scoring is expected to be low. As pointed out in the previews for the events in the Canary Islands, for example, looking at the post-event stats leads to the conclusion that putting skill was central: the top of the leaderboard featured players who had the least putts and/or most strokes gained putting. It is akin to saying that that Phil Mickelson won last week because he had the least number of shots. The reasons for good putting stats are numerous and there is not the granularity of data on the European Tour to fully address this issue, but the pre-event stats that have the best predictive power for explaining good putting stats are usually these stats and greens in regulation, not putting stats. Low scores are formed from having lots of birdie chances. 3. Course form does matter at Himmerland Looking at only the winners can lead to the conclusion that course form is not important here. Bernd Wiesberger (2019) and Julien Suri (2017) won on their course debut, while the 2015 and 2016 winners had previously only finished in the mid-30s here. However, the 2019 event was more difficult for this angle in that the 2018 had been held on a different course, but all those who had finished in the top-10 in 2017 and played in 2019, made the cut. None of the top-3 had played in the 2017 event, but 4th-place finishers, Chris Paisley and Paul Dunne, had finished 3rd and 14th in 2017, respectively. In 2017, the runner-up, David Horsey, had won the previous year; while in 2016, the runner-up, Bradley Dredge, had finished 6th and 2nd in the previous two Made in Denmarks, while 3rd-place finisher, David Lipsky, had finished in the top-15 in both previous events. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected. Robert Macintyre A short-priced favourite, but not without very good reason. He followed up a top-10 finish in the British Masters with making the cut at last week’s U.S. Open as he maintained his position in the top-50 in the World Rankings. He returns to a course on which he finished 2nd in 2019 and has all the statistical indicators to predict that he will perform well this week – he ranks inside the top-10 for strokes gained: tee to green and greens in regulation. After three runners-up finishes in his rookie season (2019), he won the Cyprus Showdown in October and looks likely to win again very soon. And given his golfing background, he may not be too disadvantaged if the wind forecast is wrong. Bernd Wiesberger Wiesberger is the player who defeated Macintyre to this title two years ago in a memorable and impressive battle that saw the two players tied up until three holes to play. Like Macintyre, he played in the U.S. Open last week. He missed the cut, but his previous form has been good, starting the final round of The Masters in the top-10 and also being in the top-10 after 36 holes of the British Masters. With the return to Himmerland, the three-time winner in 2019 looks a strong candidate to defend his title. Matthias Schwab Schwab completes a trio of players who performed very well here last time out. He held the 36-hole lead and then started the final round two shots behind Wiesberger and one shot behind Macintyre. He would finish in the top-10 and given his stats profile – top-15 for strokes gained: approach the green, strokes gained: tee to green, and greens in regulation – he is very likely to do so again on this course. With form figures of 7th-7th-8th-33rd-11th, he has the form and the game to do well this week. Tips 1-2; +17.60pts 1pt e.w. Robert Macintyre 12/1 (Bet365, VBet 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 37th 1pt e.w. Bernd Wiesberger 18/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 1st 1pt e.w. Matthias Schwab 25/1 (Bet365, VBet 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 8th
|
