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This week signals a return to the height of the European Tour’s summer schedule with the Irish Open, Scottish Open and Open Championship taking place across three weeks in July. Typically dubbed the ‘Links leg’ for the unique type of courses played, it will be incomplete this year as the Mount Juliet Estate is 30 miles from the coast and will not even be ‘links-style’ as in next week’s venue. This is a parkland course, designed by Jack Nicklaus and opened in 1991. The fairways are tree-lined, but generous in width, and there is plenty of sand and water. This sounds like a PGA Tour course and it does have an American parkland feel. It is very far removed from some of the finest links courses in the world that have been venues for this event. Mount Juliet hosted the Irish Open between 1993 and 1995, soon after it had opened, and it also hosted the WGC-American Express Championship in 2002 and 2004. It hasn’t hosted any other Tour events since 2004, but was due to be the host for the 2020 Irish Open when the re-scheduling of that event to September resulted in Galgorm Castle hosting last year’s event and Mount Juliet hosting the 2021 Irish Open. With only two WGC events held here this millennium and the last one being 17 years ago, plus the fact that Irish Opens are played, more often than not, on links courses, there is little previous history to draw upon. The best indications come from the architect and course flyover videos which confirm that the course is very familiar to those 2002 and 2004 events. As Ben Coley perfectly summarised in his preview, Jack Nicklaus courses get harder the further you are from the tee. Mount Juliet fits that mould. With winds expected to be light and nothing more than a few showers predicted for the weekend, this looks to be a straightforward test for the players this week. The following are cautiously offered as angles to identify players who should contend this week. Angles to consider: 1. Recent form will be important With the winners of the two WGC events here being Tiger Woods and Ernie Els and the 1993-1995 Irish Open winners here being Nick Faldo, Bernhard Langer and Sam Torrance, this is clearly a course in which good players have prospered. A ‘cream rises to the top’ would have been a logical angle, but this week’s field is not as balanced as in those five events. Rory McIlroy is the only player in the World top-30. There are then only three more in the top-75: Tommy Fleetwood who is struggling for form, Shane Lowry who would be far better suited to links courses, and Christiaan Bezuidenhout who owes his high ranking to three wins in South Africa last year and has only one top-10 finish in 13 starts since that last win. The angle is therefore amended to be one of form instead. The weather is favourable and the course is a good differentiator of skill, so those players who are playing well coming into this event should be the ones who will prosper on this course 2. Scrambling and bogey avoidance will be key As indicated above, this is standard for Nicklaus courses. When Woods won in 2002, other players recorded more birdies and eagles than him, but no-one else dropped as few shots over the 72 holes. Els also recorded the fewest number of dropped shots when winning 2004. The reason for their lack of bogeys: even though only ranked 3rd and 11th in greens in regulation, respectively, they both topped the scrambling stats in the week of their win here. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected. Lucas Herbert Herbert comes into the event on the back of successive top-20 finishes on the PGA Tour. This will be his first event on the European Tour since the Saudi International, but he played well to finish 7th in last year’s Irish Open on an inland parkland course. Thomas Detry Detry is another in very good form. He missed the cut at the U.S. Open two weeks ago, but he finished 2nd in his last European Tour event, the three-day European Open earlier this month. He will convert one of these many chances to win sometime soon.
Jason Scrivener Scrivener is another who is yet to win on this Tour, but has come close. He has finishes of 3rd and 7th in two of his last three starts, and in one of those events, the Scandinavian Mixed, he held a two shot lead in the final round before stumbling on the back nine. That was his last event and shows that he has the form needed to contend again this week. Joost Luiten Luiten’s form has been much more consistent, which is why he has five top-15 finishes in his last seven starts and ranks inside the top-15 for scoring average on this Tour. He ranks second in bogey avoidance the Tour this season and this should be a very good setup for him this week. Thomas Pieters Pieters has been using sponsors invitations to compete on the PGA Tour, which means a lack of regular Tour golf, but three top-15 finishes in five PGA Tour starts since February is a good performance. He returned to the European Tour with a top-30 finish last week and, maybe less rusty, he can do better this week. Callum Hill Hill has been so consistent in 2021, he ranks 3rd in scoring average on the European Tour. Given that his average is based on 43 rounds and the top-two have their averages based on only 10 and 20 rounds, respectively, so that he can be considered as the leading player on this Tour. He really should feature once again this week. Andrew Johnston Johnston is another who features on a very regular basis, so much so that he ranks 7th in scoring average on the European Tour this year. That scoring is based on bogey avoidance, in which he ranks 5th, so that is a good fit for this week. Kurt Kitayama Kitayama disappointed last week, but he is still in good form, having finished 8th and 25th in his previous two starts. He is known as an attacking, long-hitter, which is normally a good fit for a Jack Nicklaus course, but most importantly he ranks 1st in strokes gained: around the green on the European Tour. He should find this week’s course a good fit for his game. Takumi Kanaya Kanaya finished in the top-20 last week, ranking 1st for greens in regulation and 4th for scrambling. He now ranks 2nd behind Kitayama in the strokes gained: around the green on the European Tour. He has form and the course fit to win for the second time in 2021. Marcus Armitage Armitage is another who has already won a Tour event in 2021, winning the Scandinavia Mixed. Given that he had secured three top-10 finishes in his previous six starts, this was hardly a fluke. This will be his first European Tour event after that win. Tips 1-9; +4.68pts 0.3pts e.w. Lucas Herbert 28/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10) 1st 0.3pts e.w. Thomas Detry 35/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10) mc 0.3pts e.w. Jason Scrivener 45/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 9th 0.3pts e.w. Joost Luiten 45/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10) mc 0.3pts e.w. Thomas Pieters 50/1 (Skybet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 12th 0.3pts e.w. Callum Hill 45/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10) mc 0.3pts e.w. Andrew Johnston 66/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 888sport 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 9th 0.3pts e.w. Kurt Kitayama 66/1 (Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 888sport 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 69th 0.3pts e.w. Takumi Kanaya 66/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10) 28th 0.3pts e.w. Marcus Armitage 50/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10) 48th
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