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The last round drama continued on the European Tour last week as the issue of Ryder Cup qualification becomes ever more pressing. With just two events to go, the quality of the field has increased again and the fact that this week’s venue will host the Ryder Cup in two years’ time will mean that there will be no escaping that issue for those still hoping to secure their place on the team. The venue is the Marco Simone Golf Club outside Rome, which was designed by Jim Fazio and David Mezzacane, opened for play in 1988 and hosted the 1994 Italian Open. There is no point looking back at that event as the course has undergone a huge renovation in preparation for the 2023 event. It is not typical of an Italian Open course – which normally feature narrow tree-lined fairways – this is a parkland course with water featuring on seven holes. There is always a strong focus on risk/reward on Ryder Cup courses. And there does not appear to be much to favour longer hitters either. Dog legs are a common feature on the par-4s with tough fescue grass the penalty for those errant off the tee. This looks like a second-shot course. With little information other than course flyovers and course reviews, the following two angles are offered to identify players who should contend this week. Angles to consider: 1. Form (and so confidence) will be important There are two rationales for this. One is that the pressure of winning this week is greatly enhanced by the likely implications for Ryder Cup qualification/selection for those in contention on Sunday. Wiesberger’s final hole on Sunday is a simple enough example. Experience and confidence, gained through form, will help enormously. The second is that this is an end-of-season event and one in which the winners have always shown good form heading into the event. Since the event moved to September in 2012, the winner in seven of those nine years had secured at least one top-15 finish in their last four European Tour starts. In the two remaining years, Thorbjorn Olesen (2018) had previously secured a runners-up finish in the Italian Open, while last year’s winner, Ross McGowan, had previously secured a 6th place finish in this event and runner-up, Laurie Canter, had four top-15 finishes in his last five starts prior to the Italian Open. 2. This a second-shot course As mentioned above, the presence of many dog-legs moves the key club away from the driver to the irons. This is in fitting with European Ryder Cup venues that take the focus away from the traditional power-hitting strengths of the American team. This leads to greens in regulation and strokes gained: approach the green as key stats, but these tend also to be testing courses, so good overall stats are required. Ryder Cup courses should be challenges if they are to test the best players in the world, but also reward risk-taking. This course, at this stage, appears to fit that bill. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected. Martin Kaymer The archetypical second-shot player whose game should suit this course. He already has three top-5 finishes in this event, ranks 5th in strokes gained: approach the green on the European Tour and has shown good form recently. Justin Harding Like so many of the leading players after 36 holes, he struggled in the difficult conditions on Saturday after starting the day in 5th place. Having finished 7th and 2nd in his previous two starts, he clearly still has the required form despite his weekend difficulties and he has the game to play well on this course: he ranks 5th in scoring average on the European Tour with top-25 rankings for strokes gained: approach the green and strokes gained: around the green. Does not have the pressure of the Ryder Cup either. Thomas Detry Retained as a selection even though he, like two other selections last week, filled the top-3 places at the cut and struggled in the conditions on Saturday. That showed that his form is still good though after runners-up finishes in both June and July, so is retained for this event. Antoine Rozner Closed with a 62 on Sunday for a top-15 finish. With evidence of much stronger form, he is selected this week as his game is a very good fit for this course. He ranks inside the top-15 on the European Tour for strokes gained: tee to green and greens in regulation and should repeat his top-10 finish in this event last year. Calum Hill The European Tour’s #1 player in terms of scoring average this season has finished 4th, 1st and 7th in his last three stars. In this form, he is difficult to omit from any shortlist at these odds. Andy Sullivan Last week I wrote about Sullivan: “More often, though, he threatens to win, but doesn’t really look the same player over the weekend”. He was one of the three selections to fill the top-3 places at the start of the weekend and, of course, he didn’t look the same player over the weekend. He coped reasonably well with the difficult conditions on Saturday but fell back on Sunday. Yet I am still going to persevere with him at the odds available. He does have a good history in this event. Dean Burmester And now the final player of that triumvirate who played so well for 36 holes last week. He was the sole leader after two rounds, fell back to 6th after round 3 and then 40th after round 4. However, his underlying form is very good – he finished 6th in the Czech Masters two weeks ago – and his overall game is very good – he ranks 23rd in strokes gained: tee to green and 2nd in putts per green in regulation on the European Tour. Victor Perez Has shown glimpses of his previous form recently, but certainly has the ability to play well this week and cement his place in the Ryder Cup team. He ranks 2nd in greens in regulation and 10th in strokes gained: approach the green which should be a very good fit for this course. Marcus Armitage Armitage is another who game should fit this course very well. He ranks inside the top-20 on the European Tour for scoring average, strokes gained: total and strokes gained: approach the green. Won the European Open in June and finished inside the top-10 last week. Thomas Pieters Persevering with Pieters who has played well on the European Tour this year, though has split his time across the Atlantic. He ranks inside the top-10 for strokes gained: total and strokes gained: tee-to-green to show that he should have the game for this course. John Catlin Fell back after starting the final round in 6th place on Sunday, but has shown plenty of form in patches over the last four months. No Ryder Cup qualification to worry about, his game should fair well on this type of demanding course even if not the most attacking player: he ranks 3rd in strokes gained: tee to green. Richard Bland It has been quite a transformation since he won the British Masters in May. He has secured three other top-5 finishes on the European Tour and challenged for the U.S. Open over the first two days. He now ranks inside the top-15 for scoring average on the European Tour to show his status on this Tour and that is built around a top-15 ranking for greens in regulation. That should be a good fit for this course. Tips 1-11; -2.75pts 0.25pts e.w. Martin Kaymer 35/1 (Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) mc 0.25pts e.w. Justin Harding 40/1 (Bet365, Mansion Bet, 10Bet, Sport Nation, Redzone 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) mc 0.25pts e.w. Thomas Detry 33/1 (Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) mc 0.25pts e.w. Antoine Rozner 35/1 (Betfred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 52nd 0.25pts e.w. Calum Hill 33/1 (Betway 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 34th 0.25pts e.w. Andy Sullivan 45/1 (Betfred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) mc 0.25pts e.w. Dean Burmester 40/1 (Skybet, 888sport, Betfred, Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 34th 0.25pts e.w. Victor Perez 60/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 18th 0.25pts e.w. Marcus Armitage 55/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) mc 0.25pts e.w. Thomas Pieters 45/1 (Skybet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 18th 0.25pts e.w. John Catlin 60/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 24th 0.25pts e.w. Richard Bland 60/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 5th
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