Preview & Tips

The first of two weeks in one region, which has become the norm since the Tour re-start last year. Given the distance from Qatar to Kenya that makes sense, but, as was also the case with the Celtic Manor Resort last year, this week’s venue plays host to two weeks in a row. The Kenya Savannah Classic starts on Tuesday, not Thursday, next week and is also held at Karen Country Club.

The event has a rich history dating back to 1967. It became part of the Safari Tour which would then be run by the European Tour before becoming a Challenge Tour event in 1997. Its list of champions includes three Major Champions (Seve Ballesteros, 1978; Ian Woosnam, 1986; Trevor Immelman, 2000). They won the Kenya Open at Muthaiga Golf Club, but this event has been played at Karen Country Club more times than Muthaiga since 2004.

The courses dates back to 1937 and is typical of the era. The fairways are narrow and tree-lined, though there is ample room for rough between the fairways and the trees, while the greens are small. The Bermuda greens were renovated and relaid with Bentgrass in 2015. At less than 7,000 yards, this is not a long course. One of the par-5s has been converted to a par-4 to make this a par-71 scorecard for this week, but there are four par-4s under 400 yards. With subtle doglegs a feature of many holes, this is a classical test of golfing skill.

This will be only the second Kenya Open on the European Tour – last year’s event was cancelled and the previous one was held in 2019. The elevation from a Challenge Tour event means that there are full stats available for 2019, whereas there were only scoring stats available for the Challenge Tour years. However, the course was also host to the Karen Masters on the Southern Africa Tour in 2018 and 2019 so there are full stats for those years as well.

Based on the many years here, albeit with limited stats for many years, the following angles should be profitable this week.

Angles to consider:

1. Greens in regulation will again be a key stat

Given the course description above, driving is not key this week. However, good course management and ball control, proxied by greens in regulation stats, are important around this course. When Guido Migliozzi won in 2019, he ranked 5^th in greens in regulation that week, but only 30^th in driving distance, 33^rd in driving accuracy, 11^th in scrambling and 17^th in putts per GIR. Second-placed Adri Arnaus ranked 3^rd in greens in regulation that week, while Romain Langasque led the field in greens in regulation and finished 6^th. The same can be found in the Karen Masters: it was won in 2018 by Michael Palmer who led the field in greens in regulation, while the player with the second-best greens in regulation stats, Tyrone Ryan, finished 3^rd; in 2019, the top-4 on the leaderboard all ranked in the top-10 for greens in regulation that week.

2. There will be lots of birdies

In 2019, Migliozzi (1^st), Arnaus (2^nd) and De Jager (2^nd) all had 23 birdies that week, a figure that was topped only by Gaganjeet Bhullar who had 24 birdies and finished 5^th. A similar trend is also evident in the Karen Masters. In 2018, the top-7 of the leaderboard all had 20-22 birdies (the most by any player was 22 that week) with the exception of Palmer who had three eagles (the most by any player that week). In 2019, Toto Thimba (1^st) and Stephen Ferreira (2^nd) both had 27 birdies (the most by any player that week), as well as three and two eagles. The greater number of eagles can be explained by the fact that the course was a par-72 for the Karen Masters. With one par-5 converted to a par-4, there will be less eagles, but the point remains that the winner will have lots of birdies to compensate for lots of dropped shots. Miglozzi had seven bogeys in 2019, while Palmer and Thimba had four and five respectively. The course is challenging, so the challenge is to make as many birdies as possible, particularly around the middle section of the course from the 6^th to the 12^th hole.

3. Par-5 scoring will be a helpful predictor this week

Given the conversion of one par-5 to a par-4 for this event, the winner will not rank particularly highly in terms of par-5 scoring. That was the case in 2019 when Migliozzi ranked 10^th in par-5 scoring for the week. However, the issue here is how to predict who will score well on this course and the best predictor of a par-5 that has been converted to a par-4 is par-5 not par-4 scoring average. This is evident when comparing the par-72 Karen Masters with the par-71 Kenya Open on the same course. In both 2018 and 2019, the winner of the Karen Masters ranked 1^st in par-5 scoring. Scoring on par-4s will be important as ever, but the ability to make birdies on both short par-4s and par-5s will be important so this angle complements not duplicates the previous angle.

Selections

The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected.

Kurt Kitayama

Already a two-time winner on the European Tour (2018 Mauritius Open, 2019 Oman Open), the big-hitting American looks a likely winner this week. He has been in great form in the Middle East, finishing 20^th in the Saudi International and 12^th in the Dubai Desert Classic, before finishing 9^th last week in Qatar, and this is a significant step down in field class. He hasn’t played here previously, but he ranks 25^th in eagles per round, 38^th in birdies per round and 9^th in par-5 scoring this year. He has the scoring ability to take the scoring chances in the middle section of the scorecard, while his tee-to-green play suggests that he will present himself with many chances in the rest of the course, while minimising the damage from loss of ball control around this course: he ranks 10^th in strokes gained – tee-to-green, 18^th in strokes gained – approach the green, and 6^th in strokes gained – around the green.

Johannes Veerman

Kitayama’s compatriot, Veerman, also has strong credentials for this title. He has yet to win a Tour event, but he finished inside the top-10 three times from September onwards on the European Tour. This was an impressive return given that he had previously played mostly in Asia in his short professional career. It was enough for him to finish the 2020 season ranked 5^th in stroke average on this Tour and this was borne out of mostly par-5 scoring (ranked 14^th), lot of birdies (ranked 11^th) and avoiding bogeys (ranked 8^th), and in terms of other stats, he ranked 8^th in strokes gained – approach-the-green, 15^th in strokes gained – tee-to-green, and 14^th in greens in regulation. Unlike Kityama, he did play in this event in 2019, finishing 17^th. But given that he was 122^nd after day one, it is very encouraging for this week that he was so good for the last 54 holes.

Jamie Donaldson 

Donaldson has also played on this course previously, but much more in the distant past. He finished in the top-10 here in 2007 when the Kenya Open was a Challenge Tour event. That is much less relevant than the form that he showed last week when finishing in the top-5 in Qatar. He ranked 2^nd in greens in regulation last week as this is a staple part of his game. He finished the 2020 season inside the top-20 for that statistic on the European Tour and is currently ranked 7^th in 2021. There had been few signs that he would return to the form that saw him as a winning Ryder Cup player until the Tour re-start last year. In his 16 starts since the re-start, he has finished in the top-5 three times and the top-20 eight times while missing the cut only twice.

Tips  1-2; +1.50pts

1.5pts e.w. Kurt Kitayama 20/1 (Betway 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7)  2nd

1pt e.w. Johannes Veerman 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betway 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7)  16th

0.5pts e.w. Jamie Donaldson 28/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7)  16th