Preview & Tips

What a difference a week makes. From the last week’s frozen images of winter league golf to basking in temperature in the mid-70s this week. Even the coastal winds are set to ease and be no more than a mild breeze by the time the tournament starts on Thursday. Last week was attrition, this week will be golf at its easiest.

Meloneras Golf is a resort course for golf tourists. Opened only 15 years ago, the front nine is inland, while the back nine heads towards the coast with three holes that play along the coastline. Throughout there are magnificent views that make this a thoroughly enjoyable course for tourists. There are four different tees, but even at its longest – 6,503 yards – it is very short. For this week, the 468-yard 9th hole has been converted into a par-4 so it will play to a par of 70 rather than 71, but none of the five par-3s are over 200 yards, four of ten par-4s are under 400 yards and none of the three par-5s are over 550 yards. The winning score should be very low, as it was at similar resorts last year (Chervo: Italian Open, and Hanbury Manor: English Championship).

With no previous Tour events held on this course, or even any European Tour events held in the Cary Islands in over 15 years, there is little to guide us other than the course profile above. The events held at Chervo and Hanbury Manor can also be instructive, though as is always the case with low-scoring events, the winner at these two locations had the lowest putts per round stats. Therein lies the problem with separating those stats that describe how someone won an event ex post and those stats that predict who will win an event ex ante.

On that cautionary statistical note, the following angles have been identified as potentially effective as predictors this week.

Angles to consider:

1. Strokes gained: tee-to-green will be important

The player who gets the ball in the hole in the least number of shots will win. That is tautological. And so is the rationale that the player with the least number of putts (i.e. putts per round) will win. But instead of looking for the best putters on Tour, the focus in low-scoring events should be on the best short iron players. The European Tour doesn’t collate stats to the same extent as the PGA Tour in this regard, so strokes gained: approach or strokes gained: tee-to-green will have to do. This event will not be won off the tee, so those players who give themselves the best birdie chances will give themselves the best opportunities to shoot a very low score. That was the case at Hanbury Manor when Andy Sullivan won by seven shots: he led the field in putts per round, but ranked only 21^st in stokes gained: putting, while ranking 1^st in stokes gained: approach. That was also the case at Chervo in a very close battle between Ross McGowan, Laurie Canter and Nicolas Colsaerts: McGowan ranked 1^st and Colsaerts ranked 2^nd in putts per round, but 2^nd and 12^th in strokes gained: putting. In truth, McGowan did have a career-week on the greens and that can’t be predicted, but both Canter’s and Colsaerts’ low scores were based on approach play: they ranked 2^nd and 4^th in strokes gained: approach that week.

2. Scrambling will also be a key stat

While McGowan led the field in strokes gained: approach at the English Championship, it should also be remembered that he ranked 2^nd in scrambling that week which may sound unusual to shoot 27-under-par and scrambling be a key stat, but bogey avoidance is also important. In terms of the Italian Open, McGowan won the event and ranked 1^st in strokes gained: around the green; the only strokes gained category that he topped that week. The winds are forecast to be no more than 15mph this week, but scrambling is usually important on coastal courses so this should be relevant this week.

Selections

The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected.

Antoine Rozner

After winning two of his last six European Tour starts, Rozner is justifiably the favourite for this event. He won the Golf in Dubai Championship in December around the Fire course at Jumeirah Estates, recording the second-lowest 72-hole score on the European Tour last year, and then winning the Qatar Masters last month in a very different test. The former has greater relevance for this week, but his overall tee-to-green play has been extremely impressive as he has made the grade at European Tour level. It was only two years ago that he was playing (and winning twice) on the Challenge Tour. One of those wins was in the Challenge de Espana, while his only previous start in Spain on the European Tour yielded a top-3 finish (2020 Andalucia Masters).

Andy Sullivan

By comparison with last year, Sullivan’s performances this year have been rather muted even though he is yet to miss a cut. Last year, he topped the European Tour’s stroke average category as well as the strokes gained: tee-to-green and strokes gained: approach categories. He ranked 4^th for birdies and 11^th for eagles. When it comes to low-scoring events, Sullivan prospers and his game is based on extremely good tee-to-green play rather than strong putting, though he did also rank 2^nd in scrambling on the European Tour last year. As outlined above, he won the English Championship by some distance so he looks a very good fit for this event.

Kurt Kitayama

With wide-open fairways and a course that rewards attacking play, Kitayama should be a very good fit. But he really struggled in last week’s cold conditions, ranking last (of those who made the cut) in strokes gained: approach and 68^th of 69 in greens in regulation. He did improve significantly over the weekend, but those were not his conditions. Yet he still managed to finish 15^th. In his previous four cuts made, he ranked inside the top-20 for both greens in regulation and strokes gained: approach and he has one of the best short games on Tour, ranking 3^rd on the European Tour for strokes gained: around the green. In this week’s warm climate, he should be able to return to his former performance from tee-to-green and contend this week.

Tips  0-3; -6.00pts

1pt e.w. Antoine Rozner 16/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7)  15th

1pt e.w. Andy Sullivan 20/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betway, Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7)  71st

1pt e.w. Kurt Kitayama 25/1 (Betway 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7)  mc