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The final leg of the Spanish Swing is a replacement for the Trophee Hassan II which was cancelled less than 12 weeks ago. After the history of the Open de Espana and the legacy of Valderrama, there is little to lure Europe’s leading players to remain in Spain and so this week features one of the weakest fields of the year. Only one player ranks inside the top-35 of the Race to Dubai or inside the top-100 in World Rankings and that is Laurie Canter who again impressed last week, but failed to deliver on Sunday. That said, there have been plenty of exciting Sunday finishes on the European Tour this year with ‘lesser’ fields, so this yet be a memorable event even if it only lasts a year. They will compete on the Course I at Golf Santa Ponsa which is described on the venue's website as appealing to "all kinds of players thanks to the wide fairways and the tees where long hitters will enjoy themselves.” Sound like a marketing line for tourist golfers so not a lot of stock is taken in that description. With the usual absence of course information, other than pars and yardages, on the European Tour site, the best indication is the past events played here. There have been six Tour events played on this course: the Turespana Open de Baleareas between 1988 and 1993 and the 1998 Turespana Masters. The winners were Seve Ballesteros (twice), Ove Sellberg, Gavan Levenson, Jim Payne and Miguel Angel Jimenez. That list of winners, plus winning scores of 11-under-par or higher for five of the six events, doesn’t support the notion that this a course where long hitters enjoy themselves. That rather dated history and the more recent tourist golfer reviews of the course are enough to identify a couple of angles to identify players who should contend this week. Angles to consider: 1. Accuracy and tee-to-green play will matter this week For all that the marketing of the course appeals to those who like to hit the ball hard, the leaderboard at the 1998 Turespana Masters tells a very different story. Behind Jimenez were Miguel Angel Martin, Paul McGinley and Katsuyoshi Tomori who all finished in the top-3. I only have the player stats from the following year, but all those players ranked highly in terms of driving accuracy and greens in regulation on the Tour. Together with reviews of the course and the number of dog-legs on the course, the expectation is that this will again be an event determined tee-to-green. As a final aside, given the late preparation of this course for a Tour event, the greens are not up to usual Tour standard so this also puts the focus on tee-to-green play. 2. Ability to play in wind is a must The forecast is relatively calm, particularly over the weekend, but this is Mallorca so a constant breeze can be easily assumed. And given this course is in close proximity to the coast, weather forecasts are highly tentative, particularly looking forward over several days. All the previous history suggests that even on calm days, there is usually decent breeze in the afternoon in these parts. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected. Martin Kaymer It has been seven years since he last won a Tour event (2014 U.S. Open), so Kaymer finds himself playing in Tour events such as this. However, a runner-up finish in the BMW International Open and top-25 finishes in the European Masters and the BNW PGA Championship suggest that he should at least be very comfortable playing against fields such as these. He ranks inside the top-10 for strokes gained: approach the green on the European Tour so this should be a good course for him as well. His performance in the Austrian Open (2nd place after rounds 1 and 2 with average winds of 15mph per day) confirms he has maintained his ball control in the wind. Alexander Bjork A top-5 finish last week and five top-15 finishes since May means that he is a player very much in form. He ranks inside the top-15 for strokes gained: tee-to-green and has a very good record in windy conditions, so is an obvious selection for this event. Joachim B. Hansen Hansen’s form is less obvious, but four top-25 finishes in his last five starts looks very strong in this company. He was the first round leader on a blustery first day in the Gran Canaria Lopesan Open in April so that is enough evidence that he can compete with blustery conditions if they surface this week. Joost Luiten Luiten is another who has proven himself very comfortable in the wind – he shared the first round lead on day one of the Gran Canaria Lopesan Open with Hansen, for example. Ranking 2nd in greens in regulation on the European Tour, he has always been a very strong tee-to-green player so this course should suit his game. Matthias Schmid Schmid hasn’t played in enough European Tour events to earn a Tour ranking, but he ranked 2nd in driving accuracy and 6th in greens in regulation when finishing 2nd in the Dutch Open last month. Alongside a top-10 finish in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, he is a player in form and it is notable that he jumped 63 places to 16th in round 2 of that event when the winds were most disruptive that week. Mike Lorenzo-Vera Lorenzo-Vera’s record in wind is supportive with the most clear example being the third round of the 2018 Sicilian Open on a particularly windy day when he took the lead in that event. More recently, he is a player in form with top-25 finishes in his last two starts. He has the ability to win, but hadn’t shown it for some time until those last two events. Jazz Janewattananond The Thai was one of those who particularly struggled in the windy conditions on day two of the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, but before that he had finished inside the top-6 on day 1 of the Olympic Men’s Golf Competition and this year’s Abu Dhabi Championship in windy conditions. A top-10 finish in the Dutch Open (when he had the third stats for greens in regulation that week) and a top-25 finish in the Open de Espana are enough evidence that he has the form to be competitive this week. Niall Kearney Kearney has proven himself to be both very competitive and very consistent this season, ranking inside the top-5 for scoring average on the European Tour. That is borne of a game built around accuracy and a short game round the greens which augurs well for this week. A top-5 finish in the Canary Islands Championship in May also augurs well. Alejandro Canizares With two top-3 finishes in his last eight starts and a top-15 European Tour ranking for strokes gained: approach the green, Canizares certainly looks capable of winning this week. That he led for each of the first two rounds in the Austrian Open in breezy conditions is also supportive. Jorge Campillo Siding with another Spaniard and one who would have been defending his Trophee Hassan II title had this event not been its replacement. A top-20 finish in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship is enough evidence that he has the form to win again and he showed, when leading after round 1 in last year’s Andalucia Masters at Valderamma, that he is comfortable in breezy conditions. Eddie Pepperell It has been a while since he has been at his best, but he was in windy conditions at the 2018 Qatar Masters. If his recent upturn in form is sustained – he finished inside the top-20 in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship – he may be a contender this week. For all that he has not been at his best, he still ranks inside the top-30 for strokes gained: approach the green on the European Tour which is a good fit for this week. Darius Van Driel Van Driel’s form is much more evident – finishes of 4th in the Dutch Open last month, 7th in the ISPS Handa World Invitational in August, and 2nd in the European Open in June. That level of plays sees him rank inside the top-30 for scoring average on the European Tour and that is built on a highly accurate game. Tips 1-11; -2.45pts 0.25pts e.w. Martin Kaymer 25/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 34th 0.25pts e.w. Alexander Bjork 28/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) mc 0.25pts e.w. Joachim B. Hansen 33/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 11th 0.25pts e.w. Joost Luiten 35/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 34th 0.25pts e.w. Matthias Schmid 40/1 (Betway 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6) 11th 0.25pts e.w. Mike Lorenzo-Vera 45/1 (Unibet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6) mc 0.25pts e.w. Jazz Janewattananond 50/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 20th 0.25pts e.w. Niall Kearney 66/1 (available generally 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) mc 0.25pts e.w. Alejandro Canizares 50/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 16th 0.25pts e.w. Jorge Campillo 66/1 (Unibet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6) 2nd 0.25pts e.w. Eddie Pepperell 80/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 40th 0.25pts e.w. Darius Van Driel 80/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) mc
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