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The Tour resumes this week for a final event on the Iberian peninsula before a couple of events in Dubai that concludes the season. There is no Q-School this year, but with Challenge Tour graduates joining the Tour in 2022, there is still plenty to play for in terms of Race to Dubai standings. Rankings within the different Tour categories will decide how many events regular Tour pros will be able to compete in next year. Not the pressure of Q-School, but still important for those who won’t be competing in the final event of the season. The Portugal Masters has always been a late season event since its inception in 2007 and in most years, it has been the last event to be played in Europe. In regular times, this would be the final event of the regular season and the Tour’s leading players would then head to Sun City and/or Shanghai before the finale in Dubai. That is not the case this year, but it is unusual this season to be playing on a course for which there is 14 years of course history and all at the same time of year. The venue is the Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course which is, yet another, resort-style course that will not overly challenge players’ games. This was the site of the European Tour’s first 59 when Oliver Fisher reached that mark though he only finished 7th. Low scoring will be the norm this week. There were some modifications to the course before the 2019 event – a new strain of Bermuda grass for the rough, some re-positioning of bunkers and some strategically-placed trees on three holes to limit the degree to which players can cut the corner on dog-legs – but it is still largely the same course. The fairways are wide, the rough is not particularly penal and the greens are large. The winning scores in 2019 and 2020 were the highest since 2012, but Liam Johnston opened with a 61 last year to show that low-scoring remains the norm here. With so many consecutive years at this venue, there are a number of angles that can be used this week. Angles to consider: 1. Momentum is important at this stage of the season There is no better example of this than George Coetzee who won last year having finished 2nd and 1st in the previous two weeks while on the Southern Africa Tour. The runner-up, Laurie Canter, had finishes of 5th and 13th in his last two starts to confirm this angle. Steven Brown was a surprise winner in 2019, but not if it is recalled that he had finished 11th the previous week in the Open de France. Similarly, Tom Lewis won in 2018 and had a top-10 finish within his last two weeks, as had the 2017 winner, Lucas Bjerregaard. 2. Approach play stats are important in low-scoring events This angle has been used repeatedly, and profitably, in the events played on the many resort courses used on this Tour over the last 15 months. Ex post, it is easy to say that the winner had the lowest score and so made the most putts – and this is true for this event in which the winner in the last two years has ranked 1st for strokes gained: putting – but approach play is the ex ante indicator. One confirmation is the fact that the leading player for strokes gained: approach the green has finished in the top-3 in each of the last two years. It is not just what happens on the greens that matters here. 3. Scrambling is also important in low-scoring events Low scores are the norm on this course, even with the recent course modifications, but the winning score has been only 16-under and 17-under-par in the last two years. There are plenty of hazards on this course and ‘saving’ a score is important. That means the short game is important. In the last two years, the leader in strokes gained: around the green has finished in the top-5, plus five of the last ten winners have ranked either 1st or 2nd for scrambling. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected. Richard Bland
With seven top-10 finishes in his last 12 European Tour starts, including a win, Bland is very much a player in form. He has a top-5 finish on this course previously and has the perfect game for this course given the above angles: he ranks inside the top-15 for strokes gained: approach the green and greens in regulation on the European Tour, as well as top-3 for scrambling. Andrew Johnston
Johnston is another player in form with top-15 finishes in his last two starts. Like Bland, he also ranks highly on the European Tour in terms of this week’s key stats: top-25 for greens in regulation and top-10 for scrambling. Calum Hill
Hill should rank highly in most key stats given that he leads the Tour in scoring average and it is notable that he is another who ranks inside the top-10 for scrambling. In terms of form, he won the Cazoo Classic in August and has three top-10 finishes in his last seven starts. John Catlin
Another player in good form with top-20 finishes in his last two starts. He ranks inside the top-25 for strokes gained: approach the green and strokes gained: around the green to show that he has the game most relevant for this course and this is confirmed by his top-10 finish here last year when he ranked inside the top-10 for greens in regulation and scrambling that week. Jordan Smith With top-20 finishes in two of his last three starts, Smith has maintained the form that has seen him finish inside the top-3 twice in his last 14 European Tour starts. His finishes of no worse than 36th in three previous visits to this course are supportive, but it is also clear that his form is much better this year. Alexander Bjork In good form after a top-5 finish at Valderrama. That is a very different type of course, but he finished in the top-25 here last year and he ranks inside the top-20 for both strokes gained: approach the green and scrambling, so he should also be competitive on this course. Wil Besseling
Another player who ranks inside the top-20 for greens in regulation on the European Tour and is in good form: he finished 6th in the Open de Espana. A top-15 finish here last year also suggests that he is a likely contender this week. Mikko Korhonen
Korhoneen has a very good record on this course with three top-12 finishes in his five visits. That he ranks in the top-20 for strokes gained: approach the green on the European Tour may be an indicator why he plays so well here. He has shown good form this season and is another likely contender. Andy Sullivan
Sullivan can trump Korhonen’s course form in that he has a win (2015), a runners-up finish (2016) and another top-10 finish (2020) on this course. His form may not be as strong, but he warrants selection on the basis of his course history and his record on resort courses. Marcus Armitage
A top-20 finish in one of his two previous visits to this course is supportive, as is his top-25 ranking for greens in regulation and strokes gained: approach the green. He has won already this season (European Open) so this looks a large price on this player. Jamie Donaldson
Back to a ‘fairways and greens’-type player who should fare well on this course, particularly as he also ranks inside the top-20 for scrambling on the European Tour and has three top-10 finishes on this course. Two top-3 finishes in his last seven starts is enough evidence that he can still compete at this stage in his career. Joachim B. Hansen form With five top-25 finishes in his last six starts, Hansen’s form is both strong enough and consistent enough to suggest that he will be a contender this week. Tips 0-12; -6.00pts 0.25pts e.w. Richard Bland 33/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 8th 0.25pts e.w. Andrew Johnston 25/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 47th 0.25pts e.w. Calum Hill 45/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) wd 0.25pts e.w. John Catlin 40/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 22nd 0.25pts e.w. Jordan Smith 45/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 41st 0.25pts e.w. Alexander Bjork 45/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 30th 0.25pts e.w. Wil Besseling 45/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 43rd 0.25pts e.w. Mikko Korhonen 45/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 54th 0.25pts e.w. Andy Sullivan 55/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 54th 0.25pts e.w. Marcus Armitage 80/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 36th 0.25pts e.w. Jamie Donaldson 60/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 51st 0.25pts e.w. Joachim B. Hansen 50/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 17th
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