Preview & Tips

What a year it has been. This was the last event to be played on the European Tour in 2020 before the Tour was suspended until July. The event had been paired with the Oman Open last year, but that event has been lost from this year’s schedule and we head to a double-header in Kenya next week. And there is even talk of heading to Florida next month if the events in Spain don’t go ahead. Strange times, but at least the European Tour is back after a four-week hiatus.

To go with Tour rustiness, we also have a lack of course history this week. The venue, Education City Golf Club, was only opened in 2018 and used for the first time last year after being held at Doha Golf Club since the inaugural Qatar Masters in 1998. This isn’t meant to be easy!

The Jose Maria Olazabal-designed course is typical of modern venues in the region. There is plenty of sand, to be expected, plenty of water around the greens, though rather more aesthetic than strategic in many cases, and the greens are large and contoured. Given the winds that are traditionally a feature of this area, it is noticeable that this course is more parkland in style than Doha, but it is still fairly exposed to the elements.

The winds were standard last year so the higher scoring average than in previous years was a product of the difficulty of this course relative to Doha GC. The closing holes, in particular, are very demanding with the last four holes averaging over-par for the week last year. The winner, Jorge Campillo, led by two with two holes to play and was traded at 1.11 on Betfair before double-bogeying the 17^th hole. Ability under pressure will severely tested on Sunday afternoon.

With a caveat about the lack of course history and Tour rustiness for most, the following angles should be profitable this week.

Angles to consider:

1. Past success in the Middle East

While it may be wise not to over-analyse one year’s results on a course, there is a general trend to focus on regional form when previewing events in the Middle East. To continue that very general trend, last year’s winner had finished 2^nd on two occasions the previous year in the region (Oman Open and Qatar Masters), as well as 4^th the year before than in the Oman Open.

2. Ball-striking should be key this week

While there were no strong trends from the playing stats last year, the top of the leaderboard featured players who ranked better in the short game department than the long game. It is not decisive, though, and such trends should only become clear after a few years at this course. However, in terms of course setup, this is a course that demands strategy from tee-to-green far more than Doha GC where the driver was a commonly-used club. The high use of strategically-placed bunkers and the fairways, greens and rough being designed to USGA specification means that this course should be a good test from tee-to-green play, with ball control and course management important.

3. Experience in wind will always be important in this event

The wind is expected to be calm on Thursday and Sunday, while being in the 15-20mph range on Friday and Saturday. This is commonplace for this event and, if anything, the forecast for very light winds on Thursday is very much the exception. A proven ability to maintain a good scorecard in testing conditions will be importanta.

Selections

The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected.

Antoine Rozner

The lack of depth in this field is shown by the fact that only one-third of this field played in the last European Tour event, the Saudi International. Rozner was one of those players and his finish of 26^th, followed finishes of 16^th and 9^th in the previous two weeks. To evidence further his performances in this region, he won the Golf in Dubai Championship in December. His rookie season may have been disrupted by covid, but to win as a Challenge Tour graduate is a huge achievement. But it was more than just winning one event. He secured five other top-10 finishes and ranked 4^th in scoring average. One of those top-10 finishes was in the Andalucia Masters when the winds averaged over 15mph for the first two rounds, so he can play in wind. With very high rankings in terms of tee-to-green stats, he looks to be a very good player and warrants support this week.

Thomas Detry

Like Rozner, Detry played in this event last year so has important course knowledge (he finished 17^th; Rozner 53^rd). He is also a player in form, having finished in the top-10 in the Dubai Desert Classic (his third top-10 finish in this region) and is a little less Tour-rusty than most, having competed in the WGC-Workday Championship two weeks ago and finished 28^th. And, in terms of ability to play in the wind, his average change in leaderboard position when the daily winds average 15+ mph is an improvement of six places. Not as strong a play as Rozner, but there is plenty of reason to support Detry this week.

Thomas Pieters

I am finding it difficult to look beyond leading players this week, though that may prove to be wrong if this year is a repeat of last year’s focus on the short game. Pieters fits the above bill of having extremely good tee-to-green stats as ball control and course management should be important this week. He matches his compatriot in terms of average a leaderboard improvement of four places when winds exceed 15mph (https://www.tour-tips.com/fpdb/mensweather.asp) and he also matches Detry in terms of recent play – he finished 15^th in the Puerto Rico Open two weeks ago. That followed a top-10 finish in the Saudi International – his 7^th top-10 finish in the region. While he has won four times on the European Tour to Detry’s none, there is always a sense of not fully reaching his potential with Pieters, so it is a smaller play on this Belgian player who finished day 1 in the top-3 last year before eventually finishing 21^st.

Tips  1-2; +36.60pts

1.5pts e.w. Antoine Rozner 22/1 (Skybet, 888sport 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7)  1st

1pt e.w. Thomas Detry 20/1 (Skybet, Betway, Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7)  9th

0.5pts e.w. Thomas Pieters 18/1 (Paddy Power, 888sport, Betfair Sportsbook,Betway 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7)  13th