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Preview & Tips

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Saudi International
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The final leg of the Desert Swing sees an American invasion. While the last two weeks have seen the appearance of only one American inside the top-100 in the World Rankings (Justin Thomas and Collin Morikawa, respectively) and only six Americans in total each week, this week we have twelve, including six that are in the top-30 of the World Rankings. It is easy to guess at the reasons for such a strong international field. Of these six, none of them have played in any of the other events in the region in the last two weeks so their attendance is good for the sponsors and TV audiences, but I don’t think more than a couple will feature strongly on Sunday.

There have only been two previous Saudi Internationals on a course that was only completed in 2017. That doesn’t create a lot of information on which to create angles for this week, but the basic facts remain the same: the course is very short by Tour standards at only 7,010 yards. It is a par-70, but with two par-4s that are over 490 yards in length, it could easily be a par-72. There are numerous dog-legs often framed by waste areas and ‘wadi’ drainage ditches so there is an element of strategy involved, but the course’s main defence is its location. Set alongside the Red Sea, wind should be a factor here. It wasn’t in 2019 when Dustin Johnson won with a score of 261, but it was last year when Graeme McDowell won with a score of 268. The forecast is for a strong breeze on Thursday and Friday this week, with thunderstorms expected on Friday afternoon. That suggests that last year’s event may be more instructive than the inaugural event in 2019.

Despite a caveat about the lack of course history, in terms of both the tournament and the age of the course, the following angles should be profitable this week.

 

Angles to consider:

 

1. Past success in the Middle East

An alternative may have been to look at past performances on links courses, but there can be little similarity between the climatic conditions facing the players this week and those in the Open Championship at Royal Portrush in July or the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in late September. With the Dubai Desert Classic, Abu Dhabi Championship and Qatar Masters on the European Tour schedule for many years, plus the introduction of the Oman Open, there is plenty of history to draw upon with Tour events in this region. Prior to his win in 2019, Johnson had competed in the Abu Dhabi Championship in the previous two years and finished 2nd (2017) and 9th (2018), while prior to his win last year, McDowell had secured four top-5 finishes in the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. The event and the course may be very young, the two previous winners had a strong record in this region.

 

2. Greens in regulation is key this week

In 2019, the leaderboard was dominated by big hitters who took advantage of the calmer conditions who dominated the course. Johnson won the event and is known for his length off the tee even though the European Tour don’t record stats for non-members. The rest of the top-5 on the leaderboard ranked 4th, 10th, 1st, and 13th respectively in driving distance, while each of the top-4 in driving distance finished in the top-11. None of the top-6 for driving distance finished in the top-10 on the leaderboard in 2020, though Johnson did finish 2nd and again did not have his stats recorded. By contrast, McDowell won having ranked 12th in greens in regulation, while Gavin Green and Sergio Garcia both ranked 1st for greens in regulation and finished 3rd and 6th respectively. The leading player for greens in regulation in 2019 (Jordan Smith) finished 54th, while the leading player on the leaderboard who had stats recorded (Haotong Li, 2nd), ranked 59th in greens in regulation that week. The contrast between the two years could not be more stark. As the course ages and the weather conditions mirror last year’s event, that should the one to focus on.

 

3. Scrambling is also key this week

Here the difference isn’t quite so stark as scrambling has been a key feature across both years. Behind Johnson in 2019 were Li (2nd) who ranked 3rd in scrambling, Tom Lewis (3rd) who ranked 5th in scrambling, Min Woo Lee (4th) who ranked 9th in scrambling, and Alexander Levy (5th) who ranked 12th in scrambling. Last year, Thomas Detry led the field in scrambling and finished 6th, while McDowell ranked 2nd in scrambling and won the event.

 

Selections

The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected.

 

Henrik Stenson

In terms of success in the Middle East, there are few who can match Stenson, four times a winner and 23 times a top-10 finisher in these four countries. It may be 18 months since he was regularly finishing in the top-10 on the PGA Tour, but this is certainly a level below that so he can be very competitive at this level, as McDowell showed last year. His game fits the bill for this course, ranking 13th in strokes gained: approach the green, 19th in greens in regulation and 5th in scrambling in the last full European Tour season (2019), so he has a better chance than his odds suggest.

 

Andrew Johnston

Johnson is retained from last week’s list even though he missed the cut by a shot. Like Stenson, he has a good record in the Middle East – two top-10 finishes over a much shorter timeframe – and he has a similar game in terms of the 2019 stats, ranking 12th in strokes gained: approach the green, 12th in strokes gained: tee to green, 24th in greens in regulation and 12th in scrambling. There are a lot of short priced players at the top of the market; I would rather side with an unpredictable, but proven when in contention, player at these type of odds on this particular Tour.

 

Graeme McDowell  course form, region form,

McDowell is another retained from last week despite the missing the cut. As outlined last week, he is classic tee-to-green and short game specialist who should prosper in tougher conditions. He did win this event last year to record his fifth top-5 finish in these four countries. If the forecast is as expected, the value should lie in players such as McDowell.

 

Tips  0-3; -6.00pts

1pt e.w. Henrik Stenson 125/1 (Skybet, 888sport, Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  mc

1pt e.w. Andrew Johnston 175/1 (888sport 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  mc

1pt e.w. Graeme McDowell 250/1 (Skybet 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8)  66th