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Time to be brief. It is not unique that the same course has been used twice in two weeks – this will be the third time since August that this has happened on the European Tour with dual-week events at Celtic Manor Resort and Aphrodite Hills. Rather it is the turnaround time that is distinctive with the second event starting less than 48 hours after the first event finished. That first event, the Kenya Open, showcased Karen Country Club very well. There was a section in the middle of the course where birdies could and should have been achieved and there were plenty of trees away from the fairways to punish those who tried to attack the course too much. The rough was light and, even though it will not be cut between the events, it unlikely to change the course to any noticeable degree despite the threat of thunderstorms on Tuesday. It was allowed to grow at Celtic Manor and there was a notable difference between the weeks, but the weather and the amount of time between events is very different this time. The other thing is particular note from last week was the lack of drivers being used. The course is short, at less than 7,000 yards, and so it was important to find the fairways or to be no more than in the light rough. With some control off the tee, this became a second-shot course last week as predicted. It will be the same this week. Given the need for brevity and, more importantly, a need not to simply repeat last week’s preview, the following angles have been identified as potentially profitable this week and are explained with a reference to last week’s preview. Angles to consider: 1. A repeat of last week is highly likely As outlined above, there are two recent occasions in which the European Tour has stayed at the same course for two weeks. At the Wales Open in August, the event was won by Romain Langasque who hadn’t played the previous week, but was a feature specific to that six-week UK Swing. Nevertheless, six of the top-10 (and ties) had finished inside the top-15 the previous week. In fact, four of the top-5 heading into the final round had finished in the top-10 the previous week. In terms of the second example, the Cyprus Showdown, it was noteworthy for its innovative format. The top-32 progressed to round 3, but the scores were not carried forward. The top-16 in round 3 then progressed to the final round with the winner determined only on that day’s scores. Such an format should have hugely accentuated a leaderboard fatigue event from the previous week, but the winner, Robert Macintyre, had finished 3rd the previous week, while the previous week’s winner, Callum Shinkwin, finished 4th. With Thomas Detry also in 4th, having finished 10th the week before, there was still strong evidence of a carry-over from the previous week despite the format. Finally, Jamie Donaldson may have had a poor final round to finish 19th, but he had the lowest score over the first 54 holes and he had finished 3rd the previous week on the course. 2. Greens in regulation will again be a key stat This angle is carried over from last week and so doesn’t need much further explanation (see last week’s preview if necessary). It needs only be said that the two standout players last week, Justin Harding and Kurt Kitayama, ranked 2nd and 1st, respectively, in strokes gained – tee-to-green and only 43rd and 11th in strokes gained – putting. Third-placed, Connor Syme, ranked 1st in strokes gained – approach the green and greens in regulation. 3. There will again be lots of birdies Another angle carried over from last week’s preview which explains this in more detail. Again, the top-3 are indicative of this: Harding and Kitayama led the field in eagles (3), Syme led the field in birdies (27). They all had at least six bogeys and that is to be expected on this challenging (in places) course, so a good score is compiled by taking the opportunities when presented. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected. Kurt Kitayama A retained selection from last week. The odds are understandably shorter than last week, but the chances of a follow-on from last week are high, as explained above. His game wasn’t particularly strong in rd1, but it was exemplary from rd2 onwards despite a rather aggressive approach off the tee that saw him finish the week ranked 74th of 77 in driving accuracy. A little more caution off the tee and he could dominate this course more than everyone else in this field. He has won twice on the European Tour already and was already in very good form before last week. He will use today to rest, unlike many who will need to work on their games, as only mental fatigue is the concern with Kitayama. Justin Harding Mental fatigue would normally be a concern with backing the previous week’s winner, but as outlined above, it is rather different this week. And it is rather different with Harding. He won the Royal Swazi Open and the Lombard Insurance Classic in back-to-back weeks in 2018 when they were played at the same venue – the Royal Swazi Spa Country Club. He then won twice in three weeks across two different continents later in 2018 (Indonesia Open, Royal Cup). Finally, when he won the 2019 Qatar Masters, he then finished 2nd (by a single shot) in the Kenya Open on this course the following week. The South African is in great form, has finishes of 2nd and 1st in the two European Tour events on this course, and has shown that he can repeat in successive weeks. Johannes Veerman Siding with Veerman for a second week at almost the same odds as last week, even though he was in the final group on Sunday. Like his compatriot Kitayama, he was very aggressive off the tee, ranking 76 of 77 in driving accuracy last week, and it cost him in that final round after starting the day in 2nd place. His form still remains good and if he learns some lessons on how to play this course from the tee, he will go close again. He did set a new course record last week. Tips 0-3; -6.00pts 1.5pts e.w. Kurt Kitayama 14/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred, Betway 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) mc 1pt e.w. Justin Harding 16/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred, Betway 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 14th 0.5pts e.w. Johannes Veerman 28/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred, Betway, Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) mc
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