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It is the week before the Open so that must mean it’s the Scottish Open. It has held that slot since 1987 as the traditional warm-up event for so many players who need to (re-)acquaint themselves with links golf before playing in the oldest Major. For some reason, it was played at the parkland Loch Lomond course between 1996 and 2010, but this event has been held on links courses ever since and was on a course rotation system since 2013 before being held at this week's venue since 2019. This is also the second of four Rolex Series events on the European Tour and that means that there is lots of prize money on offer. Viktor Hovland won the BMW International Open two weeks, an event that had a prize fund of €1.5m; the prize fund was doubled for €3m last week for the Irish Open won by Lucas Herbert, while the prize fund more than doubled again to $8m for this week’s event. With a purse comparable to a mid-ranked PGA Tour event, there is plenty of quality within this field as they prepare for next week’s Open Championship. Eight Americans ranked within the top-40 in the World Rankings play in this event rather than practice on links courses elsewhere. They will compete at The Rennaisance Club, which is on a great piece of land between Muirfield and North Berwick, but the course is only 13 years old. And it was not until 2013 and a land swap with the Honourable Company of Edinburgh Golfers (based at Muirfield) that the Renaissance Club could boast that it had holes on the coastline. For the purist, this is a links-style golf course rather than a pure links. The course was originally designed with relatively wide fairways, but these were subsequently narrowed before the event first hosted the Scottish Open in 2019. When Bernd Wiesberger defeated Benjamin Hebert in a playoff that year with a score of 22-under-par, it was clear that the course needed to be toughened up if it was to remain the host of this event. The fairways were narrowed further, but the most visible change to the course was the reversal of holes 1-7 and 10-16, which allowed the holes alongside the First of Forth to played on the back nine. This meant that the opening holes played significantly easier with only the par-5s providing any respite over the closing 11 holes. The changes clearly had an effect as the winning score last year was 11-under-par, but it is probable that most of the higher scoring resulted from the event being played in October rather than July. We may found out this year. A perennial consideration with links-type golf is the weather. Unusually, the Met Office forecast is that winds will reach no more than 8mph and the chances of rain being no more than 30% (Friday afternoon and Sunday afternoon). With such unusually calm conditions, links courses are deprived of their key defence. Its secondary defence is its heavily contoured greens, but they should be no match for this week’s field. Another low-scoring event is forecast. The following are offered as angles to identify players who should contend this week. Angle to consider: 1. Look for previous experience in this event Links golf is unique, so the standard angle would be to look at experience in links events. That can be done easily, but this is a more focused approach on this event. Every winner since the event moved to a links course (2011) had previously competed in this event. Even the 400/1 winner in 2018, Brandon Stone, had competed the previous year at Dundonald Links. In terms of the two events held at The Renaissance Club, Aaron Rai defeated Tommy Fleetwood in a playoff and they had previously competed in two and five Scottish Opens, respectively, and both had already secured a top-10 in this event. The 2019 event here also resulted in a playoff, between Wiesberger and Hebert, and they had both competed in this event five times previously. 2017’s winner, Rafa Cabrera Bello, had competed in eight previous Scottish Opens, while the six previous winners of this event back to 2011 had all achieved at least one top-10 finish in this event. Links experience is important, but so is links experience in this particular event. 2. This event will be determined tee-to-green In terms of standard stats, Hebert (finished 2nd), Roman Langasque (3rd) and Henrik Stenson (4th) all ranked inside the top-5 for greens in regulation on this course in 2019. Rai won in October 2020 and was also ranked inside the top-5 for greens in regulation. But it is in terms of the strokes gained stats that this is even more evident. While none of the four players in the two playoffs here ranked inside the top-10 for strokes gained: off the tee or strokes gained: putting, Wiesberger and Hebert ranked 3rd and 2nd, respectively, for both strokes gained: tee-to-green and strokes gained: approach the green, and Rai and Fleetwood ranked 2nd and 1st, respectively, for strokes gained: tee-to-green. 3. PGA Tour players fare well in this event There were very few PGA Tour regulars competing in this event last year for obvious reasons, but Tommy Fleetwood was such a PGA Tour regular and lost out in the playoff. Ian Poulter and Erik Van Rooyen had played exclusively on the PGA Tour for months and both finished 6th. PGA Tour regulars, Henrik Stenson and Andrew Putnam, finished in the top-5 in 2019 while PGA Tour regulars Luke List finished 3rd and Rickie Fowler 6th. In 2017, Cabrera-Bello won after concentrating on the PGA Tour until the U.S. Open. That was also the case with Justin Rose in 2014 and the 2013 and 2015 editions were won by Phil Mickelson and Rickie Fowler, respectively. In the missing year, 2016, the event was won by Jeev Milkha Singh, but Danny Lee finished 3rd and four PGA Tour regulars finished in the top-10. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected. Tommy Fleetwood Fleetwood’s form on the PGA Tour is a concern, but this is more than covered by his odds. Last year, he was the 10/1 favourite and lost out in a playoff. He finished in the top-20 last week in his first European Tour event for five months and his last three finishes on links courses in Scotland are 2nd-5th-2nd. Still one of the best tee-to-green players on Tour. Billy Horschel Finishes of 1st and 2nd in the last two WGC events show his pedigree and this will be the first time that he has played in this event to prepare for the Open Championship. The very calm conditions will help given his relative lack of links experience.
Ian Poulter No stranger to this course or links golf. Has finished in the top-15 in both Scottish Opens held here and, given his form on the PGA Tour over the last three months, he should be a strong contender this week. Lucas Herbert Another player in very good form. There were spells of poor play on Saturday and Sunday, but his ability to keep a good score intact was very impressive, so he was a deserved wire-to-wire winner. With a top-5 finish on this course last year and form on the PGA Tour before last week’s success, he may well keep up the momentum this week. Matt Wallace Wallace has featured strongly in the final round of a few PGA Tour events this year, particularly in April and May. He has had a couple of good performances on this course, particularly in 2019 when in the top-5 at the start of his round, and given that his game is focused on his tee-to-green play, he should perform well here again. Garrick Higgo Higgo has made even more of an impression on the PGA Tour than Wallace, winning the Palmetto Championship last month. That followed a spell on the European Tour in April-May in which he finished 4th-1st-8th-1st. He finished 26th on this course last year and, like Horschel, his relative lack of links experience should be aided by the expected very calm conditions. Martin Kaymer Kaymer does have plenty of experience of links golf and even won the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in 2010. He finished inside the top-20 here in 2019 and has been in very good form, runner-up in the BMW International Open two weeks ago, for example. Ranked 6th on the European Tour for strokes gained: approach the green, this is a course that suits his game. Andy Sullivan Sullivan has been in very good form recently, finishing 6th in the British Masters, 5th in the BMW International Open and 12th last week in the Irish Open. It has been a case of missed opportunities with too many bogeys over the weekend in these cases, but he has a good history in this event and should put himself in contention again. Lee Westwood Last year’s European #1 has focused exclusively on the PGA Tour since the events in the Middle East and it earned him a couple of runners-up finishes (Arnold Palmer Invitational and The Players Championship). His form has been mixed recently, but a return to the European Tour and a venue where he finished in the top-20 last year should be a good fillip. Andrew Johnston Johnston remains one of the European Tour’s most consistent players, ranking 4th for scoring average. Frustratingly, he finished one shot out of the places last week, but he keeps putting himself in contention and he did finish 4th here in 2019. Thomas Detry Detry is another in good form. He missed the cut last week after a poor second round, but he had been in 4th place after the first round. He had finished 2nd in his previous European Tour event, the European Open. A frustrating player to back, but he will win on this Tour.
Victor Perez course Another who has concentrated on the PGA Tour since the Saudi International (in which he finished 4th). His form recently hasn’t been great, but he finished 9th in The Players Championship and 4th in WGC matchplay event. A return to the European Tour should help with his form and confidence, particularly to this course on which he finished in the top-15 last year. Tips 3-9; +3.50pts 0.25pts e.w. Tommy Fleetwood 35/1 (William Hill 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 26th 0.25pts e.w. Billy Horschel 80/1 (Betway 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 54th 0.25pts e.w. Ian Poulter 55/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, BetFred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 4th 0.25pts e.w. Lucas Herbert 40/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10) 4th 0.25pts e.w. Matt Wallace 40/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10) 26th 0.25pts e.w. Garrick Higgo 45/1 (Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, William Hill, 888sport 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) mc 0.25pts e.w. Martin Kaymer 66/1 (Betway 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) mc 0.25pts e.w. Andy Sullivan 50/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10) mc 0.25pts e.w. Lee Westwood 66/1 (Skybet, William Hill 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 35th 0.25pts e.w. Andrew Johnston 66/1 (Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, William Hill 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) mc 0.25pts e.w. Thomas Detry 80/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10) 2nd 0.25pts e.w. Victor Perez 90/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 59th
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