Preview & Tips

Another week, another resort course. The European Tour moves 30 miles to the island of Tenerife for another double-header: two events in two weeks on the same course. With this being the second of three events in the Canary Islands, there is a very familiar look to this week’s field with few changes from last week, most notably with Sam Horsfield, Andy Sullivan and Rafa Cabrera-Bello not electing to play this week.

And it is not merely in terms of the field that there is a sense of déjà vu. Once again, there are magnificent views of the Atlantic Ocean, but also this time of the island of La Gomera. And once again, this is a resort course for golf tourists. That means that there are wide, rolling fairways, very little rough and large greens. It is also short with the European Tour website reporting the course as being 6,857 yards in length. As with all new courses, the information on that website should be treated with caution, but it is an unusual course with six par-3s and five par-5s, with one par-5 converted to a par-4 for the week.

The venue hosted the 2003 Canarias Open de Espana, won by Kenneth Ferrie in a three-way playoff with Peter Hedblom and Peter Lawrie. They shot 22-under-par for the week with Ferrie having five eagles across the four rounds. That the European Tour hasn’t been back to this course shows that it wasn’t viewed as being a particularly good test, though it has hosted four events on the Ladies European Tour, the latest being the 2014 Open de Espana Femenino. None of this is particularly helpful in identifying a potential winner other than it will be an identikit to last week’s (and other) resort courses.

On that note, the following angles have been identified as potentially effective as predictors this week.

Angles to consider:

1. Strokes gained: approach the green and tee to green will be important

To continue the argument from last week’s preview, the focus in low-scoring events should be on the best short iron players rather than the best putters. Higgo won last week in very impressive style particularly on the greens and, while he currently ranks highly in the strokes gained: putting stats, those are distorted by last week’s very impressive figures. It is therefore instructive to look at last year’s European Tour stats and he ranked 130^th in strokes gained: putting. Of particular interest is that he ranked 4^th in strokes gained: approach the green and 32^nd in strokes gained tee to green. The argument for approach play rather than putting stats being a better predictor for low-scoring events was outlined last week. Last week’s winner wasn’t a selection, but did fit that angle.

2. Strong current form will also be important

This was very noticeable from last week’s leaderboard on a similar resort course. Higgo won the event, having finished 4^th in the Austrian Open the previous week. Maximilian Kieffer was the runner-up, having been the runner-up the previous week. Most of the top-10 last week had a top-10 or top-15 finish within their last two starts. The last time that anyone had shot less than 260 over four rounds was in the 2020 English Championship, won by Andy Sullivan who had finished 4^th two weeks previously. Momentum is important when scores are low and so, it appears, is momentum coming into the week.

Selections

The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected.

Mattias Schwab 

Higgo and Kieffer may have the best form at the moment, but Schwab is a close third. He has finished in the top-10 in each of the last three European Tour events. He has stats to show that he is one of the best tee-to-green players on Tour – he ranked inside the top-10 for both strokes gained: approach the green and tee to green last year and is again fairing well in these stats this year alongside greens in regulation (11^th). He led the field in greens in regulation and was ranked 2^nd in strokes gained: approach the green last week. He only needs a warm putter to convert his top-10 finishes into a strong chance for victory.

Antoine Rozner 

After winning two of his last seven European Tour starts, there are few reservations against Rozner’s ability to convert winning chances. His putting wasn't as strong as usual last week, but he still finished 15^th. His tee-to-green play is very good, so rather like Schwab, he is a selection on the basis that he has the form and the game to present himself with many birdies opportunities this week. A good putting week and he will win again.

Kurt Kitayama

Persevering with Kitayama who putted very poorly to miss the cut last week, but at least that does mean that his odds are larger this week. It must still be remembered that he has finished in the top-20 in five of his last seven starts and the wide-open fairways of resort golf should suit Kitayama. The existence of five par-5s should also help for someone long off the tee, but he is far from just being a long-hitter. He ranks inside the top-10 for par-3 scoring on the European Tour and that augurs well given the unusually high number of par-3s being played this week.

Tips  0-3; -6.00pts

1pt e.w. Mattias Schwab 22/1 (Bet365, Vbet 1/4 1-2-3-4-5)  33rd

1pt e.w. Antoine Rozner 16/1 (Betway 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7)  mc

1pt e.w. Kurt Kitayama 30/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7)  mc