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It’s that time. The end is near. We face the final curtain. For one last week, the players will compete on the European Tour before its rebranding as the DP World Tour. There isn’t even a week’s gap to draw breath and focus on the 50 years of the PGA European Tour. So we end with the appropriately-named DP World Tour Championship for the season and Tour finale. This is a limited field event – the top-54 in the Race to Dubai standings plus a couple of invites: Sergio Garcia and Patrick Reed – and will be the event in which the European #1 is crowned. However, only six players can achieve that title this week: Collin Morikawa, Billy Horschel, Tyrrell Hatton, Min Woo Lee, Matthew Fitzpatrick and Paul Casey. That normally means added pressure and under-performance this week, particularly for the person currently in the #1 spot. They will compete on the Earth course at the Jumeirah Golf Estates. A Greg Norman-designed typical desert course. It is long – measuring 7,675 yards – featuring generous fairways, plenty of water (for the middle of the desert) and plenty of sand (we are in the middle of the desert). Water features on each of the last three holes to add to the drama of the finish here with an island green for the par-3 17th hole and water in place for both those laying up and those going for the green on the par-5 18th hole, and there are 99 bunkers. This is described as an altogether different proposition to the Fire course used last week. It is undoubtedly a much harder course, but a look at the winning scores suggests that this course may be dramatic but it is not difficult. The average winning score over the 12 years here is lower than 269 or 19 under par. The rough has been toughened up over the years and length off the tee has become less of an advantage, but the formula is clear. Stay out of trouble off the tee so that the pin can be attacked for approach shots and putt well on the fast greens. That looks like the formula for any course, but there is nothing particularly different that is required here. The rough is not too punitive, the fairways are not too narrow and the greens are not small. It is a good course for TV with its closing holes and it is a good course to showcase the best players’ talents. Here are a few angles that can be used this week. Angles to consider: 1. Recent form is important This may seem obvious given that this event features the top-54 players on the European Tour (plus a few invites), but that is a measure over the whole season whereas closing the season in strong form is not necessarily the same. Nine of the twelve winners here recorded at least one top-10 finish in their previous two starts. The two exceptions were Matthew Fitzpatrick (2016) who had recorded top-20 finishes in both of his previous two starts (a WGC event and a Rolex Series event), Jon Rahm (2017) who still had four top-10 finishes in the PGA Tour Playoffs within his last seven starts and last year’s winner, Matthew Fitzpatrick again, who had been competing on the PGA Tour in preparation for the Masters and had secured a top-10 finish in his last European Tour start. Clearly, all the ‘exceptions’ had strong incoming form anyway. 2. Tee-to-green stats matter here Given the lack of challenges off the tee, despite the length of the course, and the winning scores, it is clear that approach shots are central to any low score here. Good approach play presents the players with the birdie chances that they need to win. There are exceptions to the rule, but 2019 is a clear example: the top-4 on the leaderboard all ranked inside the top-5 for strokes gained: tee-to-green. Last year’s winner, Fitzpatrick, is an exception (he ranked 8th in that category), but the other players in the top-4 all ranked inside the top-4 for strokes gained: tee-to-green. That shows that it is before the green rather than on the green that is more important here. In terms of greens in regulation stats, seven of the twelve winners ranked inside the top-4 for GIR that week. 3. The short game also matters As Joachim B. Hansen showed last week, low scores are compiled not only by scoring lots of birdies, but by also avoiding dropped shots. He had 24 birdies and only one bogey en route to winning the Dubai Championship around the Fire course here. The introduction of the strokes gained stats has enabled a closer look at the short game and, while Fitzpatrick’s win last year was borne out of a very hot putter, it is also evidences that avoiding bogeys is also important. In each of the last two years, the leading player for strokes gained: around the green has finished inside the top-3 on the leaderboard. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected. Patrick Reed
One of the invites to this event who has been a regular visitor to the European Tour over recent years. He has played in this event in five of the last six years, finishing in the top-10 in all but one appearance and in the top-3 twice. A second-place finish in the Bermuda Championship three weeks ago is evidence of form and he is a player with a very good short game. Billy Horschel
Has the added pressure of being able to secure the European #1 title, but it is easier to start from 2nd place in the rankings than being the one to beat. Followed up a top-10 finish in the season-ending Tour Championship on the PGA Tour with a win at the BMW PGA Championship so has the confidence of good form as well as the benefits of a light schedule over the past month. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Bezuidenhout has been competing on the PGA Tour in their 2021-22 season and secured a top-15 finish in the World Wide Technology Championship two weeks ago. Together with top-15 finishes in each of the last two years here, he has the standard metrics to be a contender this week. Ian Poulter
Poulter’s form is more circumspect, particularly after the disappointment the/his last Ryder Cup, but he finished in the top-20 in the CJ Cup last month. Has finished as runner-up twice here and there is value in these odds. Richard Bland
After a string of selections of PGA Tour regulars, Bland is someone who has both focused on and impressed on the European Tour this year. He ranks very highly in all the core stats – scoring averages, ball striking and short game – and has become highly proficient in securing top-10 finishes after his breakthrough win earlier this season. Lucas Herbert
Herbert secured his breakthrough win on the PGA Tour three weeks ago in the Bermuda Championship and that sees him now inside the top-50 in the World Rankings. Finished well down the field in his one previous visit (2018), but is clearly a much better player now. Dean Burmester
Burmester is another to have won recently: he won the South African PGA Championship two weeks ago, but it is just a continuation of the form that he has shown all year as evidenced by his top-10 ranking for scoring average on the European Tour and his win in the Tenerife Open in May. The big-hitting South African has a very good short game and will be looking for his third top-5 finish in four visits to this course. Laurie Canter
With three top-5 finishes in his last five starts, Canter is certainly a player in form even though his erraticism is evidenced that he missed the cut in the other two starts. As a player who ranks 3rd in strokes gained: tee to green, his game should fit this course well. That was shown last year when he led the event after 54 holes, before finishing 5th. Danny Willett
Back to recent winners with Willett who won the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship last month. A couple of top-30 finishes on the PGA Tour is enough evidence of his improved form/confidence. He also won this event in 2018 and has two other top-5 finishes here.
Rafa Cabrera Bello
The winner of the Open de Espana last month has an excellent record in the Middle East, having won the 2012 Dubai Desert Classic and earned his seventh top-5 finish in the region at this year’s Abu Dhabi Championship. His record on this course may not be as strong, but he does have a top-10 finish here and is in very good form. Thomas Detry
The Belgian is yet to win on the European Tour despite yet more runners-up finishes this year. A couple of top-25 finishes on the PGA Tour in the last three weeks is enough evidence of form. Three top-30 finishes in his three previous attempts and looks a stronger candidate to contend this year. Robert Macintyre
Macintyre hasn’t shown a great deal of form since returning to this Tour from the Korn Ferry Tour Finals, but he had four sub-70 rounds last week and he also has a good record in this region with a top-3 finish in the Dubai Desert Classic earlier this year and he was just one shot off the pace heading into the final round here last year. Tips 2-10; -1.25pts 0.25pts e.w. Patrick Reed 30/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 32nd 0.25pts e.w. Billy Horschel 28/1 (William Hill 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 32nd 0.25pts e.w. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, William Hill, 888sport 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 32nd 0.25pts e.w. Ian Poulter 55/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, William Hill 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 6th 0.25pts e.w. Richard Bland 70/1 (BetFred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 45th 0.25pts e.w. Lucas Herbert 50/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, William Hill, BetFred, 888sport 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 21st 0.25pts e.w. Dean Burmester 50/1 (Bet365, Sporting Index 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 6th 0.25pts e.w. Laurie Canter 66/1 (Sport Nation 1/5 1-2-3-4-5) 27th 0.25pts e.w. Danny Willett 50/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, William Hill, BetFred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 39th 0.25pts e.w. Rafa Cabrera Bello 66/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 39th 0.25pts e.w. Thomas Detry 70/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, William Hill, 888sport 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 21st 0.25pts e.w. Robert Macintyre 50/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, William Hill, BetFred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 4th
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