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Preview & Tips

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Andalucia Masters
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It’s the second week of three in Spain and a return to Valderrama, the scene of the 1997 Ryder Cup. Last week’s impressive champion, Jon Rahm, doesn’t make a repeat appearance after he missed the cut here last year, but the field is strengthened with the arrival of Matt Fitzpatrick, Ryan Fox, Adrian Meronk, Robert Macintyre, Erik Van Rooyen and Callum Shinkwin. All rank inside the top-100 in the World Rankings to bring the number to nine this week in that category, where there were only six last week.

They travel to Sotogrande to play on a course that has a long history on the DP World Tour, as well as staging the 1997 Ryder Cup. It staged the season-ending Volvo Masters between 1988 and 1996 and again between 2002 and 2008, while also staging the WGC-American Express Championship in 1999 and 2000. After staging the Andalucía Masters in 2010 and 2011, Valderrama disappeared from the European Tour schedule for a number of years before returning in 2016 for the Open de Espana and the re-convened Andalucía Masters from 2017 onwards. That means that there is plenty of history, albeit only six events in the last decade.

The course is tough. The fairways are narrow, sloped and lined with cork trees, while the greens are much smaller than average for the DP World Tour, but are fast and undulating. Despite the famous 17th hole, water only features on three holes at Valderrama.

Unlike most Ryder Cup venues, Valderrama is not a course for the more aggressive players on Tour. It is often described as a quirky course, which is normally combined with an insistence that course form is essential here, typically citing Sergio Garcia who finished outside the top-10 just once in 15 starts at Valderrama, winning three times.

The example of Garcia is also problematic for the commonly-used angle that the driver, and particularly length off the tee, is unimportant around Valderrama. This can be extended further. The top-ranked player for driving distance finished 2nd in 2018 (Shane Lowry), 2nd in 2019 (Jon Rahm) and 6th in 2020 (Wilco Nienaber). In last year’s event, Min Woo Lee and Ryan Fox ranked inside the top-3 for driving distance and finished 2nd and 4th, respectively.

This is not to suggest that a contrarian angle of back big-hitters should be adopted, but that it isn’t necessarily such a disadvantage here as is widely reported, while its rich course history helps to identify different angles to identify players who should contend.

 

Angles to consider:

 

1. Scrambling is the key stat this week

Given the very small greens (and the difficulty of finding the fairways), this is a well-cited angle. In the three years that strokes gained stats have been available on this Tour, the winner here has ranked 1st-2nd-1st in strokes gained: around the green. Over the same period, the winner also ranked 1st-5th-2nd in scrambling that week. It’s an obvious angle and doesn’t really need any more explanation.

 

 2. Strokes gained: tee-to-green and greens in regulation also matter

This is more in line with Ryder Cup courses, or at least those used in Europe. Focusing on strokes gained stats first, the last three winners all ranked inside the top-4 for strokes gained: tee-to-green that week, while last year, of the top-5 in the strokes gained: tee-to-green rankings that week, only Bernd Wiesberger (11th) failed to finish in the top-4. Drawing on the greens in regulation stats for the three years before this era of strokes gained stats, the winners ranked 4th-9th-1st in greens in regulation that week. Valderrama is a strong test of ball control and overall skill levels; this will not be a putting contest.

 

3. Also look for form horses

Dating back to the 2006 Volvo Masters, every champion at Valderrama had finished inside the top-30 in their previous start. Looking beyond the last previous start, every single champion since Valderrama has first used in 1988 had finished inside the top-10 in at least one of their last six starts. This may be a product of the late season schedule. It may be a product of the quality of the course in terms of filtering the best players from the rest. Or it may be a product of the confidence in a player’s game that is needed when it will be sorely tested around Valderrama. Whatever it may be, out of form players don’t win here.

 

Selections

The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected.

 

Yannik Paul
As a Challenge Tour graduate, Paul is making his course debut, but the last three winners here have shown that isn’t necessary. Instead, he comes to this event in very good form and with a game profile that should suit this course and the above angles. In the last three weeks he has finished in the top-10 twice and while he did miss the cut in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, he was unfortunate to have been drawn to play Carnoustie when the worst of the weather hit on the Friday. Around the other two courses, he shot 68-67. On the DP World Tour, he ranks inside the top-10 for strokes gained: approach the green, greens in regulation and scrambling, and inside the top-20 for scoring average and strokes gained: tee-to-green. A perfect fit for this course.

 

Thomas Detry
Detry is typically discounted for this event because he is one of the longest drivers on Tour, but it has been explained above how this doesn’t square with the historical stats here. He finished in the top-10 here in 2019 when leading the field in both strokes gained: approach the green and scrambling (as well as 2nd in greens in regulation) so this shows that there is more to his game than power off the tee and he has been in good form recently. In the past eight weeks, he has finished 4th in the Boise Open (Korn Ferry Tour Playoffs), 5th in the BMW PGA Championship and 9th in the Sanderson Farms Championship on the PGA Tour. All had much stronger fields than the one assembled this week.

 

Scott Jamieson
Like Paul, Jamieson’s overall quality of play this year is evidenced by his top-20 ranking for scoring average on the DP World Tour. That is largely borne of a very strong short game: he ranks inside the top-10 for scrambling which will be highly relevant this week, and he also ranks 3rd for strokes gained: putting on Tour this year. His form is good with a top-5 finish in the European Masters recently and he has also shown a strong proficiency around this course, finishing 6th-15-20th in three appearances in the Andalucía Masters.

 

Tips  0-3; -6.00pts

1pt e.w. Yannik Paul 55/1 (10Bet, SportNation 1/4 1-2-3-4-5)  21st

1pt e.w. Thomas Detry 28/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betway 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7)  45th

1pt e.w. Scott Jamieson 90/1 (Bet365, VBet 1/4 1-2-3-4-5)  mc