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Another week, another focus on LIV Golf with the DP World Tour’s decision not to immediately suspend those who played in the LIV event and allow them to play this week. Louis Oosthuizen and Sergio Garcia are in the top-3 in the market and are among ten players who competed in the LIV event two weeks ago. But with Thursday’s decision on eligibility to play in the Scottish Open (co-sanctioned with the PGA Tour), this issue will remain in focus. Will the DP World Tour more closely align with its strategic partner, despite the lack of reciprocity in terms of playing rights, or formalise talks with LIV? Whatever the politics, this isn’t dull, but it may be wise to avoid backing players who competed in the LIV event given Thursday’s announcement. And finally to the golf. This week's field will complete at Golfclub Muchen Eichenried which staged this event every year between 1997 and 2011, but thereafter has staged this event on an alternating basis with Golfclub Gut Larchenhof. That rather limits the trends that can be derived from the stats, but we are well-accustomed to having a two-year gap between this year's event and its previous iteration. Another complicating factor is that there were changes to all 18 greens before the 2019 event with the Bentgrass variant mixed with poa annua, more familiar in California, to create better putting surfaces. The rest of the parkland course remains largely the same. The fairways are tree-lined, but generous in width, so there has never been any dominance of power or accuracy, or vice-versa, on this course. Water features on ten holes and this is generally seen as a low-scoring venue. Even with the course changes, this was a low-scoring event. Viktor Hovland’s score of 269 (19-under-par) was the lowest score since 2009. The following are offered as angles to identify players who should contend this week. Angles to consider: 1. Greens in regulation is the key stat this week This angle has held over the last decade. Last year’s winner, Viktor Hovland, ranked in the top-10 for greens in regulation and the top-two in that category, Bernd Wiesberger and Victor Dubuisson, also finished in the top-5. In 2019, Andrea Pavan may have been a surprise 100/1 winner, but he ranked 2nd that week in greens in regulation, while 2nd-placed Matt Fitzpatrick ranked 1st in that category for the week. The winner in 2017, Andres Romero, wasn’t a member of the European Tour and so there are no stats available for him that week, but second-placed Henrik Stenson led the field in greens in regulation. Stenson also finished 2nd in 2015 and was ranked 2nd in greens in regulation that week as well. In 2013, Ernie Els won the event and led the field in greens in regulation, while in 2011, Pablo Larrazabal won the event and ranked 2nd that week in greens in regulation (top-ranked Joost Luiten finished 3rd). 2. Course form should be important Players who win here do so after securing good finishes on this course previously. That is still the case even though the course is now used once every two years. Last year, Viktor Hovland was making his debut but he was in the top-15 in the World Rankings. However, Martin Kaymer finished 2nd and he was a previous winner on this course (2008). The surprise winner in 2019 defies this angles, but Andres Romero had secured top-30 finishes in both his previous starts here before winning in 2017 and while Sergio Garcia secured his second runner-up finish on this course . Pablo Larrazabal won here in both 2011 and 2015, having finished 3rd here in 2010. Ernie Els won in 2013 having secured top-15 finishes in three of his previous four visits. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected. Matthieu Pavon
Pavon finished 7th two weeks ago in the Scandinavian Mixed, having held the lead at the end of day one. This is his third top-7 finish of the year. This form sees him rank 13th in scoring average on the DP World Tour and that is borne mostly of his tee-to-green play: he ranks inside the top-25 in stokes gained: tee-to-green. With a top-10 finish here in 2019, he looks a likely contender this week. Takumi Kanaya
Having led the money list and scoring average rankings on the Japan Tour last year (as well as ranking 3rd for greens in regulation), Kanaya has been playing mostly on the PGA Tour this year, though he has played in Japan for the last two events and finished in the top-20 both times. He played in this event last year and finished in the top-20. He is a better player than these odds suggest. Wil Besseling
Retaining Besseling as a selection after he fiished 2nd at 100/1 in the European Open. In terms of the key stat this week, he topped the DP World Tour’s rankings for greens in regulation in 2020 and has been ranked inside the top-30 in each of the last two years as well. His course form doesn’t look great at first glance – he finished 52nd here last year – but he had a really poor week on the greens. In terms of ball-striking, he ranked 4th in driving accuracy and 8th in greens in regulation that week, so that is supportive. Tips 0-3; -6.00pts 1pt e.w. Matthieu Pavon 80/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) mc 1pt e.w. Takumi Kanaya 80/1 (Betfred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) mc 1pt e.w. Wil Besseling 80/1 (Bet365, BetVictor, 10Bet, Sport Nation 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 26th
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