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Since the changes to the Tour schedules in 2019, the final Major of the year has been the oldest. It is a fitting climax to the season’s Majors and, for all the other distractions in professional golf at the moment, the run-up to this event is also fitting. In 2019, the Open was followed by a WGC event in Memphis the following week; it was cancelled in 2020 due to the pandemic and last year, there were still travel restrictions in place for some and the Olympics were held two weeks later. With having such a strong field in the co-sanctioned Scottish Open last week, there is a sense of climax this week rather than a fleeting moment. And so it should be at the home of golf. On a rotation of some of the U.K.’s finest links courses, the Old Course at St Andrews normally hosts this event every five years. Without the pandemic, it would have been the host in 2020, but its return was delayed until 2022 to coincide with the 150th edition of the Open Championship. This will be the 29th time at this event has been held at St Andrews. The course is famous for its wide fairways and double-greens, which make interpretation of traditional stats such as driving accuracy, greens in regulation and putting average rather challenging. The rough is generally sparse while the course’s main defences are its 112 bunkers, many of which are deep pot bunkers hidden from the tee, and the wind, as with all links courses. The winds are forecast to be light, no more than 15mph, and so no great difference to the Scottish Open at North Berwick last week. Enough to be a small factor this week, but not enough to be disruptive. And given that the conditions have been dry with no notable rain in over two weeks, the course is expected to play firm enough without the help of a strong sea breeze. With the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, played each year in October, having two of four rounds played around this course, there is plenty of course experience to draw upon over and above the 2015, 2010, 2005, 2000, etc. Opens played here. That makes this is a very particular course in the Open rotation. Drawing upon this rich course history, and also the event history, the following are offered as angles to identify players who should contend this week. Angles to consider: 1. Look for previous top-10 finishes in this event The course rotation system could compromise any trends based on the event rather than the course, but it is noticeable that prior to Collin Morikawa’s win last year in his debut Open Championship, each of the previous ten champions had recorded at least one top-10 finish in this event prior to their win. When Zach Johnson won in the last Open played here in 2015, he had already finished in the top-10 in two of the previous three years. If this is due to the peculiarities of links golf, this will only be reinforced by the firm course conditions facing the players this week. 2. Current form also matters in this event You have to go back to Ben Curtis in 2003 to find an Open Champion who hadn’t recorded a top-5 already that year or a top-10 finish in their last eight starts. In fact, of the 17 Opens played since Curtis’ win, only four were won by players who hadn’t already won a Tour event that year. 3. Scoring on the par-4s matters at St Andrews This course is unusual in that there are only two par-3s and two par-5s, so it is little wonder that when Johnson won in 2015, the top-5 on the leaderboard all ranked in the top-6 for par-4 scoring that week. At pointed out above, the fairways and greens here make the usual stats difficult to interpret, so while it is very likely that this puts a heavy emphasis on ball striking stats such as greens in regulation, strokes gained: approach the green and also scrambling, these are not particularly clear from events held at St Andrews. The top of the leaderboard will have strengths in these areas, even if the stats won’t show it to achieve good performance on the par-4s. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected. Tony Finau
He hasn’t won in 2022, but he has remained a highly consistent with runners-up finishes in the Mexico Open in May and the Canadian Open last month for example. He also has an excellent record in this event with no worse than 27th in his five previous experiences and he does have experience of St Andrews with two appearances in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship yielding top-10 finishes both times. Tommy Fleetwood
A runner-up at the 2019 Open Championship at Royal Portrush, he could certainly go one better this week given his record on this course. He has broken par in 21 of 22 rounds at the Old Course, mostly in the Alfred Dunhill Links in which he has five top-5 finishes. He showed much more control off the tee last week and that helped him finish 4th in the Scottish Open. Billy Horschel
Horschel is a different type of player so this is a value play given the odds. His best finish in this event came in 2015 on this course and the calm conditions will help him this week. He did compete in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship last year and finished 36th (round of 68 and 72 around St Andrews) so has gained valuable experience on this course. He is seven-time champion on the PGA Tour and won the Memorial Tournament last month at Muirfield Village where tee-to-green play is so important. Missed the cut last week, but that is not a concern, particularly as his odds have almost doubled as a consequence. Tips 1-2; +0.60pts 1pt e.w. Tony Finau 45/1 (Skybet, Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11) 28th 1pt e.w. Tommy Fleetwood 28/1 (Betway 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12) 4th 1pt e.w. Billy Horschel 80/1 (Betway 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12) 21st
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