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It is always tough to follow the Open Championship – and what a final round that was – and this year the honour falls to the Cazoo Classic. Given that Robert Macintyre leads the market with a best price of 14/1, and that he was 125/1 last week, that shows how difficult it is to attract a strong field the week after a Major. Those that do this play this week are in a real treat, though. Unusually, the ‘links swing’ extends beyond the Open Championship and reaches the coastal courses of Lancashire. The venue: Hillside Golf Club in Southport. The best links course not have hosted the Open Championship, though it was used for Final Qualifying from 2014 to 2017. The Club was founded over 100 years ago, but it was not until the 1950s that the course took the form that will be recognisable this week. With the acquisition of new land, Fred Hawtree overhauled the course, particularly its famous back nine. While the opening nine holes are flat, running along the railway line and then back to the clubhouse, the second nine are played along corridors of some of the highest dunes found on any golf course. The course hosted the 2019 British Masters, but that was the first Tour event held there since Tony Jacklin won the European PGA Championship in 1982. That means that there is only one year’s worth of course stats on which to base any angles, but there are obvious comparisons to Royal Birkdale which borders this course and to Royal Lytham and St Annes which is only seven miles across the Ribble Estuary. However, that does not mean that links form is going to be important. Marcus Kinhult won here in 2019 and had played in only two previous Tour events on links courses, with a best finish of 61st. Of the three runners-up, Eddie Pepperell did have a good links pedigree and it is assumed that Robert Macintyre did have one, but he had never played in a Tour events in a links course, but Matt Wallace, who traded as low as 1.28 on Betfair, had played in five previous Tour events on links courses and missed the cut every time. Putting aside the obvious but tenuous links form angle, here are a couple of angles to consider on a course such as Hillside. Angles to consider: 1. Control off the tee is essential at Hillside Last week was a contest between the longest drivers in the field (McIlroy and Young) and the best putter (Smith). That is a peculiarity of St Andrews on the Open rotation. The Lancashire links are very different. Fairway bunkers when combined with sharp doglegs are a much more potent weapon. The stats from 2019 bear this out with both Kinhult and Pepperell ranking inside the top-8 for driving accuracy and outside the top-50 for driving distance. With little wind expected this week and rain expected from Friday, the greens will be soft and so scoring should be low, but links courses drain very well, so the fairways should still remain very firm. Again, unlike last week, finding those fairways will be key to scoring well around this course. 2. Greens in regulation and strokes gained: approach the green will be the key stats This is largely a reinforcement of the first angle. The Lancashire links courses all demand ball control and cannot be overpowered. Again, this is borne from the 2019 stats. Macintyre and Wallace both finished runners-up and ranked 1st and 2nd, respectively, for strokes gained: approach the green. The other two players in the top-4, Kinhult and Pepperell, both ranked 12th in greens in regulation that week. It is only one year’s worth of data, but I am very familiar with this course and control off the tee and control in terms of how to attack the greens is key here. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected. Masahiro Kawamura
With Macintyre heading the field at 14/1, there is clearly not a lot of value at the top of the market and so players such as Kawamura present much better value. He ranked inside the top-20 for scoring average on Tour last year and finished 5th in the European Open last month. He has missed three cuts since, but Kinhult had missed four cuts in a row prior to his win here in 2019. He fits the profile of a player who should play well here – he ranks inside the top-10 for driving accuracy and top-30 for greens in regulation on Tour this year, plus he is also top-15 for strokes gained: around the green if he does get into trouble here. Santiago Tarrio
Tarrio is a player with a similar game profile, ranking inside the top-20 for both driving accuracy and greens in regulation on Tour. He has shown good form recently with a 16th place finish in his last DP World Tour event (Irish Open) and a top-5 finish in the Scandinavian Mixed last month. The only concern would be that he competed in the two events in the U.S. over the last fortnight, but he missed the cut on Friday (he featured strongly for the first two rounds the week before), so jetlag should not be a factpr. Takumi Kanaya
After winning the 2019 Taiheiyo Masters while still an amateur, Kanaya has been dominant on the Japan Tour, ranking first for prize money and scoring average, amongst others, last season. This year, he has tried to compete on the PGA Tour without success and has played in the BMW International Open last month and last week’s Open Championship, missing the cut both times. That suggests a player short of confidence, but has the ability to make a mockery of these odds. Robert Macintyre is the player with the best World Ranking in this event (98th); Kanaya is only four places behind him. Tips 0-3; -6.00pts 1pt e.w. Masahiro Kawamura 75/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) mc 1pt e.w. Santiago Tarrio 90/1 (Betfred 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 11th 1pt e.w. Takumi Kanaya 50/1 (LiveScoreBet 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) mc
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