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The Tour moves on from an eight-week run across courses in Britain and Ireland and to two events in continental Europe before the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth next month. With the change of event format, there is an increase in the quality of the field and this can be seen from the OWGR’s new Field Rating metric: 61.06 vs 46.92 last week. That puts it half as strong as the Boise Open on the Korn Ferry Tour and less than twice as strong as the Manitoba Open on the Canadian Open. Ahem. We would spend a long time talking about the merits and demerits of the new OWGR system. Let’s just say it is an increase in field quality on last week. This will be the eighth edition of the Czech Masters with it being played every year, bar 2020, since 2014 and always at the same venue: the Albatross Golf Resort, around 12 miles south-west of Prague. It is a course that only opened in 2009, so it is natural that it would take some time to mature and reach the level of a Tour course. That means that scoring has generally been low in this event with lots of birdies, but the development and renovation of the course has continued and a change in the game profile to win here has been changing in recent years (see later). As the title suggests, it has all the features of a resort course: a parkland course with up to five different tees on each hole, containing generous fairways, trees that are comfortably away from the fairways and large greens. At 7,468 yards in length, it appears a little longer than average on Tour, but it is 400m above sea level which negates some of that length. Given the range of tees available, it may play well below that yardage. We won’t know until each round is underway. There is water on ten holes with three lakes. The following two angles are offered to identify players who should contend this week. Angles to consider: 1. Greens in regulation is a key stat this week With the exception of Thomas Pieters in 2015 and Johannes Veerman last year, the other five winners have ranked 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 6th and 2nd in greens in regulation that week. As far as the two exception years are concerned, Pieters ranked 22nd in that category in 2015, but Pelle Edberg (2nd) ranked 1st in greens in regulation, Matthew Fitzpatrick (3rd) ranked 2nd in greens in regulation, Robert Dinwiddie (4th) ranked 4th in greens in regulation, and so on. And while Veerman ranked 22nd in greens in regulation when winning last year, Sean Crocker (2nd) ranked 1st in greens in regulation and Tapio Pulkkanen (2nd) ranked 7th in greens in regulation. This is confirmed by the strokes gained: approach stats: Veerman ranked 12th, Crocker 1st and Pulkkanan 4th. 2. No longer an event for outsiders With the exception of Jamie Donaldson who won the inaugural event, this was an event for outsiders in the early years with Thomas Pieters (2015, 80/1), Paul Peterson (2016, 250/1) and Haydn Porteous (2017, 66/1) winning here. Since then, the odds of the winners have continued to fall with Pieters winning in 2019 at 20/1 and Veerman winning in 2021 at 25/1. This reflected in the game profiles over the years. Until 2018, the winners always ranked very highly for putts per green in regulation: 4th-1st-2nd-2nd-1st. But over the last two events, they have ranked 15th and 9th in that category. Take the more instructive strokes gained: putting metric for example. The top two on the leaderboard in 2019 ranked 61st and 62nd in that category; the top two on the leaderboard in 2021 ranked 65th, 22nd and 16th in that category. As this event has become less of a putting contest, the more that higher-quality players have featured in this event, as shown by the odds of the winners, but also by the odds and World Rankings of those who finished 2nd. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected. Marcel Schneider
Schneider was in great form between May and July recording five consecutive top-20 finishes on this Tour. His injured his wrist in the opening round of the Cazoo Open two weeks ago, but declared himself fit again last week on Instagram so his odds look rather long. He has a strong all-round game and ranks just outside the top-200 in the World Rankings, which is the 12th-best in this field. He already has one top-25 finish here and that should be the least of his targets this week. Rory Sabbatini
Sabbatini is one player who has benefited from LIV Golf (though it can be argued that the large increases in purses on the PGA Tour mean that many others have benefitted as well) as their removal from the career money list moved him up from 31st (and no playing rights next year) to 22nd and a full PGA Tour Card. He isn’t competing in the PGA Tour Playoffs, but that news should put him in a good place and ready to enjoy this week. He has competed here twice previously, finishing 19th in 2016 and 33rd last year, and looks a decent quality player in this field. Rafa Cabrera Bello
Cabrera Bello is another player with a strong pedigree, as well as a top-200 World Ranking, who is making his appearance on this Tour after failing to reach the PGA Tour Playoffs. A four-time winner on this Tour, including last year’s Open de Espana, he has a very pedigree compared to this field. His form hasn’t been great, but trying play on two different Tours is very difficult, and that was also the case last year before his win in October last year. Surprising odds for a player of his calibre. Tips 1-2; +8.20pts 1pt e.w. Marcel Schneider 66/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 6th 1pt e.w. Rory Sabbatini 35/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 13th 1pt e.w. Rafa Cabrera Bello 55/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) mc
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