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When the Rolex Series was inaugurated in 2017, none of the UAE year-opening events were included. The Abu Dhabi Championship was added in 2019 and, as such, the prize money was more than double this event. With the advent of the DP World Tour, this has been remedied. The Dubai Desert Classic, the oldest Tour event in the UAE, is a Rolex Series event and the prize fund is comparable to last week. And so is the field with three of the World top-10, Morikawa, Hovland and McIlroy competing for a second week in a row. This used to be the event that the marquee players skipped before the big-money event in Saudi Arabia next week. A lot has changed since last year. This event has been played since 1989 and has been staged at the Majlis course at Emirates Golf Club in all but two years of the event. That means that there is plenty of course form available this week. Having previously been 230 yards shorter than last week''s venue, the courses are now the same length, but there are more dog-legs on this course so course management is more of an issue than last week. However, it is still flat and exposed, a standard desert resort course, so there are far more similarities than differences with last week’s venue. It features generous fairways with little rough so the penalty for errant drives is principally the water that features on ten of the holes. That said, driving accuracy has never been a key factor here – Sergio Garcia ranked 4th in that category when winning five years ago, but no other winner in the last 20 years has ranked in the top-15 in driving accuracy that week. The greens are generally rather fast so their difficulty can be affected by the strength of the wind. The forecast is for calm, but there is a prospect of stronger winds over the weekend. These winds speeds are only forecast to reach 15mph, so very gentle compared to last week. There is one change of note this week, though. The greens have been completely renovated since last year’s event. A lot of money has been spent to improve the conditions of the greens and increase their size. There is always a ‘bedding-in’ period for new greens, but they are not expected to be a major factor, or at least a major impediment, this week. Given the long history at this course, the following angles are easy to identify and should be profitable. Angles to consider: 1. History matters in Dubai The winners here have always fared well previously on the course. Even the 200/1 winner in 2020, Lucas Herbert, had finished 7th the previous year on this course and had been the leader at the cut that year. With the exception of Haotong Li (2018), all the winners of this event in the last ten years had secured at least one top-20 finish on this course previously. In terms of Li, he had finished 39th in his previous visit, but 2nd-placed Rory McIlroy was securing his eight top-10 finish here in a row and while 3rd-placed Tyrrell Hatton was securing his third top-10 finish in a row here. 2. Greens in regulation is key this week In short, each of the last three and 12 of the last 16 Dubai Desert Classic champions have finished inside the top-5 for this statistic when they won. The 2020 edition feels like a bit of an outlier with a winning score of 279 and a 200/1 winner – the second-highest winning score in the last ten years has been 272 – but still greens in regulation was crucial. Extending this to strokes gained data, Paul Casey won this event last year and led the field in strokes gained: tee-to-green and ranked 2nd in strokes gained: approach the green, while the top-4 in strokes gained: approach the green all finished in the top-6 on the leaderboard. This suggests that putting is not likely to be a key factor this week, even with the new greens. 3. Previous form is also noticeable It is difficult to cite current form as being relevant for the second event of the year, but previous winners have either secured a top-10 finish already that year or at the end of the previous year. Form had been carried over from the end of the previous year. Casey had finished in the top-10 at The American Express the previous week, Herbert had finished 14th in the Open de France in October, DeChambeau had finished in the top-10 in two PGA Tour already in 2019, Li had finished 2017 with three top-20 finishes, as did Garcia in 2016 before winning this event in 2017. And so on. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected. Ian Poulter
Slightly lower odds than last week, but Poulter is retained after a strong showing last week to finish 6th, his third consecutive top-10 finish, fifth top-6 finish in his last eleven European Tour starts and fourth top-6 finish that he has recorded in the UAE in the last three years. In terms of this event, he has secured top-20 finishes in four of five starts here and, while he is a player who tends to score much better than his stats, he ranked 2nd in green in regulation when finishing 3rd here in 2019. Lee Westwood
Westwood is a much more standard fairways and greens player with typically very strong greens in regulation stats. For example, he ranked 1st in both strokes gained: tee to green and strokes gained: approach the green in 2019. That was just one of 14 top-20 finishes that he has achieved in his last 22 attempts in this event, including last year. His 2021 campaign was disappointing after finishing 2020 as the European #1, so his top-20 finish last week was encouraging. Alexander Bjork
Bjork is another player who finished in the top-20 last week to continue the form that saw him finish 2nd in the DP World Championship in November and in the top-20 the previous week in the Dubai Championship. He has finished in the top-20 in two of four previous attempts in this event and has the game profile to make it three from five this week: a top-15 ranking on the European Tour for strokes gained: approach the green is a good fit for this course, while a 12th place ranking for scrambling and a 3rd place ranking for strokes gained: putting suggests that he is a complete player at this level. Tips 0-3; -6.00pts 1pt e.w. Ian Poulter 35/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, William Hill, Coral and Ladbrokes 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) mc 1pt e.w. Lee Westwood 80/1 (Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) 32nd 1pt e.w. Alexander Bjork 80/1 (William Hill 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 60th
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