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Inaugurated in 2001, the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship is a celebration of links golf, featuring two of the most famous courses on the Open Championship rotation. St Andrews for being the home of golf and Carnoustie for being one of the toughest links courses in the world. Such a celebration deserves to be prime time in the Tour schedule. The first week in October certainly isn’t a prime slot. This is the Tour’s only pro-am and always attracts a strong field in terms of both professionals and celebrities, amongst which it is fair to say that there is a very wide range in golfing ability. With each group comprising of four players - two professionals and their respective amateur partners – it normally takes over six hours to complete a round with half-hour waits on tees not uncommon. After all the drama of the last two weeks, this is far more difficult to watch with even the final round also containing the amateurs from the top-20 teams. Cold East Scotland weather plus six hours round ... not really a compelling celebration of links golf. They will compete over three very different courses. St Andrews, with its wide fairways, typically plays the easiest of the three, but can easily become the most difficult in windy conditions. Carnoustie is also on the Open rota and is typically the hardest given its narrow fairways and penal rough. The final course, Kingsbarns, was designed by Kyle Philips and opened in 2000 and has played much easier in the past, such as in 2012 when Brandon Grace shot 60 here. As with all links courses, one eye should be kept on the weather and its looks very typical for this time of the year: temperatures in the 50s, a strong breeze (15mph winds) from Friday onwards and rain forecast for Friday in particular. With this event dating back to 2001, there is plenty of event history to draw upon and to form the following angles that have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected. Angles to consider: 1. Experience in this event is imperative With the exception of the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, every single winner of this event after the inaugural event had played in this event previously. The key issue being the nature of this event as a pro-am. It is very difficult to get any rhythm during the first three rounds, so experience is necessary. There is always an exception to the rule and that was Victor Perez in 2019, but he had already moved to nearby Dundee and was playing lots of links golf. With such a local factor in his favour, this angle didn’t hold in 2019, but a look at the rest of the 2019 leaderboard is supportive: 13 other players finished in the top-10 in 2019 and none were making their event debut. 2. Event form matters In essence, this is really an extension of the first angle. Experience of links golf and this event is imperative; having a previous top-5 is an advantage. There is no better example of this than last year when Danny Willett won having recorded two previous top-5 finishes in this event, joint-runner-up Tyrrell Hatton had won this event twice previously (plus a further runner-up finish) and the other joint-runner-up Joakim Lagergren had three previous top-5 finishes in this event. As explained above, Perez won on his event debut, but with Hatton (2017), Thorbjorn Olesen (2015), Oliver Wilson (2014) and David Howell (2013) that makes five of the last eight winners had secured at least one top-5 finish in this event prior to their win. In the three other years, there was always at least one player in the top-3 who had recorded at least one previous top-5 finish in this event. 3. Scrambling will be key this week Given the event is played over three different courses, it is difficult for one skill stat to dominate, but with the winds forecast to be at least 15mph from Friday onwards, it is self-evident that good scrambling stats will be important to keep a good scorecard. And it is not without cause. In the last 15 years (14 events), the winner has led the field in scrambling that week four times. By contrast, the winner has been top-ranked for greens in regulation that week just twice, putts per GIR once, and never for both driving distance and driving accuracy. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected. Matt Wallace
Wallace has been mostly playing on the PGA Tour for the last couple of seasons, but has played in six DP World Tour events over the last four months and recorded two top-5 finishes, including a runner-up finish in the European Masters a month ago. He has played this event three times, finishing higher up the leader each time as learns to play pro-am golf. He finished in the top-15 in 2019, shooting 65 in the final round around St Andrews. In terms of game profile, he ranked 4th in scrambling when last playing fully on this Tour (2020) and that part of his game is still very sharp: he ranked 1st for both scrambling and strokes gained: around the green at the European Masters, and he ranked 2nd for strokes gained: around the green at his last event, the Fortinet Championship on the PGA Tour. George Coetzee
Sticking with the South African after he held a share of the lead on the back nine on Sunday and traded as low as 2.50 on Betfair. Finding the water twice on the 15th hole ended his hopes of winning the Open de France. He is a regular in this event – this will be his 10th Alfred Dunhill Links Championship – and he does have a top-5 finish as well, courtesy of a closing 62 around St Andrews in the closing round ten years ago. His scrambling ability is solid, ranking inside the top-30 on the DP World Tour, but his strength lies in his overall game and that sees him currently rank inside the top-10 for scoring average on this Tour. There may be a stronger field on view this week, but it is surprising to see his odds so much higher than last week after such a strong performance for 68 holes. Jordan Smith
Coetzee may have a strong overall game, but it pales into comparison with Smith’s. On the DP World Tour, he ranks inside the top-5 for scoring average, strokes gained: total, strokes gained: off-the-tee, strokes gained: tee-to-green, greens in regulation, and scrambling. He has finished 7th and 12th in the last two weeks and has a top-5 finish in this event (2019). He is just one good putting coach away from being the #1 player on this Tour. Tips 0-3; -6.00pts 1pt e.w. Matt Wallace 80/1 (LiveScoreBet 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) mc 1pt e.w. George Coetzee 100/1 (BetFred, Betway 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) 17th 1pt e.w. Jordan Smith 50/1 (LiveScoreBet 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) dq
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