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This event may as well be on a different hemisphere to last week given the change in weather conditions. From temperatures in the 50s and winds that reached a peak of 30mph last week, we now have an event with temperatures peaking at around 81 degrees and winds no more than 7mph. And no more celebrities. This should be a much easier event to watch and to play in. A look at the market suggests that this will be the Jon Rahm show. Not quite the evens that were available during Tiger’s heyday, but the shortest odds for any PGA or DP World Tour event this year. But he was priced similarly last year, but never matched the form of his first nine holes of the event when he shot 30 and he eventually finished 17th. He is no longer the World #1 (now ranked 6th) and, unlike last year, he is competing against another player in the top-50 of the World Rankings (Fleetwood, ranked 30th). He should win against this field, but the value odds are to be found elsewhere. This is a national Open that was first staged over a century ago and has been a regular on the European/DP World Tour since its beginnings in 1972. In previous years, it had a rather unfortunate place on the Tour schedule - held the week after either The Masters or The Players Championship - so it was moved to the October slot in 2019 in the hope that it would produce a better field. This has not been the case. Whereas there were 15 players competing in the 2016 event who were ranked inside the top-100 in the World Rankings, there were only seven in 2019 and 2021, while this year there are only six. There are only seven players ranked inside the top-180 in the World Rankings this week. The field is weaker, in part, because of LIV Golf. Three of those players ranked inside the top-100 in the World Rankings at the last two Opens de Espana are players who have been playing the LIV Golf events this year. The venue is the Club de Campo Villa de Madrid which will host the Open de Espana for the 11th time this week. It has hosted the last two Open de Espana in 2019 and 2021 and has also hosted the 2000 Turespana Masters, the Open de Madrid between 2001 and 2005 and the 2008 Madrid Masters. As such, there is plenty of course history, but just the two events in the last decade. The course has been lengthened a little since 2008 event, but at just 7,112 yards, barely enough to offset the improvements in golf technology. The course played rather short in these events and that is likely to be the same. The course is normally well-watered during the summer months and that means that it should be rather soft. It is notable that while Padraig Harrington won the 1996 Open de Espana with a score of 272 in April of that year, all the other events above were played in October and scoring was much lower. Raphael Jacquelin won the 2005 Open de Madrid with a score of 261 and the two recent winners here (Jon Rahm and Rafa Cabrera Bello) shot 262 and 265, respectively. The course is undulating and while the fairways are tree-lined, they are generous in width and the rough is not penal. Scoring would not have been so low in previous events here if the trees and rough had been real penalties. The greens are small, multi-tiered and tricky. Despite an obvious concentration on the 2019 and 2021 events, there is still enough course history to identify some angles which should be profitable this week. With this event dating back to 2001, there is plenty of event history to draw upon and to form the following angles that have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected. Angles to consider: 1. Form is not important this week Or at least, form from last week. The reasons for this are explained above. Anyone braving six hour rounds in freezing conditions earned their money last week, but it is far from ideal preparation for this event. Anyone who left East Scotland earlier, or even missed last week’s event, would have had a much better preparation for this week’s event and not had their swing compromised by playing in very difficult weather conditions. 2. Par-5s are key to scoring around this course This is a low-scoring event and shots need to be gained on the par-5s, even though there are only three of them. The winner in three of the last five events here has ranked 1st for par-5 scoring that week and had at least two eagles (Charl Schwartzel had three eagles while winning the 2008 Open de Madrid here). Rahm lead the field in par-5 scoring and was 12-under-par on these holes when winning in 2019. Cabrera-Bello was a little different last year – he was 9-under-par for the par-5s – but he beat Adri Arnaus who had three eagles that week, while 3rd-placed Grant Forrest had five eagles (four on par-5s and one hole-in-one). 3. Experience of playing at altitude is a factor This fascinating angle is due to Matt Cooper’s preview on betting.betfair.com. As he outlines, Madrid is the second-highest capital in Europe and this is far from a flat course. Last year’s winner, Cabrera Bello, is a two-time winner in the European Masters, while runner-up Arnaus has two top-10 finishes in three attempts in that event. The 2019 winner, Rahm, hasn’t played in the European Masters, but has two top-3 finishes in the Mexico Championship played in Mexico City, while Cabrera Bello and Arnaus had finished 2nd and 4th, respectively, in 2019 to show that course form as well as an aptitude for altitude is important. Selections The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following players has been selected. Jason Scrivener
Scrivener skipped last week’s event so should be better prepared for this event than most. This is an event in which he finished 7th here in 2019 with four sub-70 rounds. His game profile remains similar to that in 2019 – he is very good from tee-to-green, ranking inside the top-10 in strokes gained: tee-to-green on the DP World Tour. When he does finish in the top-5, it is normally based around very strong par-5 scoring, as he did when being top-ranked twice in that category twice in the last two years and recently when ranking 2nd in that category when finishing 4th in the Scandinavian Mixed in June. Pablo Larrazabal
When it comes to the altitude angle, Larrazabal is a very strong fit. He won the MyGolfLife Open in March this year at Pecanwood which is situated 1,170m above sea level. By comparison, Madrid is 650m above sea level. He also won six other events on this Tour, including the ISPS Handa Championship in Spain in April to make him a multiple-winner this season and so rank inside the top-15 in the 2022 Race to Dubai. He also ranks inside the top-5 for strokes gained: total on the DP World Tour and, in terms of this week’s angles, he ranks inside the top-20 for par-5 scoring on this Tour. He finished in the top-20 here last year and that should be the minimum expectation this week. Thriston Lawrence
Like Larrazabal, Lawrence had an early exit with a missed cut from last week’s event and like Larrazabal, he has won twice on the DP World Tour this season. The first at the Joburg Open, played at Randpark Golf Club and the second in the European Masters at Crans-sur-Sierre. Both events are played at an altitude of 1,500m above sea level. But he is more than just a good player at altitude. He ranks inside the top-5 on the DP World Tour for scoring average, inside the top-10 in the Race to Dubai standings, and inside the top-25 for par-4 scoring, par-5 scoring, strokes gained: total, strokes gained: tee-to-green, strokes gained: tee-to-green, and greens in regulation. Tips 0-3; -6.00pts 1pt e.w. Jason Scrivener 80/1 (LiveScoreBet 1/4 1-2-3-4-5) mc 1pt e.w. Pablo Larrazabal 45/1 (Boyle Sports 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8) 50th 1pt e.w. Thriston Lawrence 40/1 (Betway 1/5 1-2-3-4-5-6-7) mc
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